April 30. Coronavirus State Openings and Sweden

April 30.  Coronavirus State Openings and Sweden

By this weekend, 31 states will have controlled openings.  We will examine the wide range of projections for Sweden in the new IHME projections.

There are now 30 million having filed for unemployment insurance.  This is said to be almost 20% of the US workforce.  There are also those who don’t have steady jobs and can’t file for it, so there may really be 25% unemployed.  This is as bad as in the Depression.

Of the six IHME projection criteria, Sweden only satisfies one, namely, no large gatherings.  However, the vulnerable and elderly are supposed to isolate, which they know to do anyway.  Schools and businesses are still open.

The population of Sweden is 10.2 million, and Stockholm has about a million.  This is comparable to a lot of midsize states, which are opening.  Sweden is half the population of New York, and a quarter of that of California.

So far, there are 2,371 deaths in Sweden, as of April 28.  This is larger than those of its neighbors with stay-at-home restrictions, Norway with 206 deaths and 5.37 million population, and Denmark with 434 deaths and 5.8 million population, each about half of Sweden’s population.

The IHME model has a vastly larger projection of total deaths in Sweden of around 17,300, but with an enormous 95% probability range of from 2,900 to 76,000.  The projection of peak resource use does not come there until May 22, and the peak daily deaths is centered around May 22, when it is projected about 500 deaths per day, with a wide 95% range from 8 to 2,800 per day.

Trump is in charge of “Operation Warp Speed” to develop and produce a vaccine by next January.  This is very convenient.  He can claim that it is coming shortly just before the election.  But he doesn’t have to face the possible failure and mistrust if it actually came out before the election.   The trouble with rushed results, is that you bet on the first one, which may not be the best one in the end, and you may give up developing the other ones.  Another example of politics over science exploration.  Trump fired the experienced professional previously in charge of vaccine development, because he didn’t support Trump’s hydroxychloroquine mania.

There are several different approaches to vaccines, and two types of antibodies, ones that fight the virus during the infection, and ones that are produced later that may give immunity.  Maybe several vaccines will be needed, especially if each is not 100% effective.  The dosages required for the elderly and vulnerable may also be higher, as they are for other vaccines.  Plus, there may be protective medicines to take before infection.  So far, Remdesivir shortens hospital stays from 15 to 11 days, and may increase survivability.

About Dennis SILVERMAN

I am a retired Professor of Physics and Astronomy at U C Irvine. For two decades I have been active in learning about energy and the environment, and in reporting on those topics for a decade. For the last four years I have added science policy. Lately, I have been reporting on the Covid-19 pandemic of our times.
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