May 5. State Coronavirus Deaths with Reopenings Often Doubled

May 5.  State Coronavirus Deaths with Reopenings Often Doubled in the IHME Model

The May 4 projections of the IHME model of the University of Washington is close to doubling long term Coronavirus deaths for the US and for some states.  We present the leading states new death projections compared to the previous projections without reopenings, and the present deaths as of May 1.

The IHME projection of total US deaths is now 134,500 with 95% range of 95,000 to 243,000.  The previous projection without openings was 73,000, and deaths as of May 1 were 65,249.

For comparison with Sweden, which relies on trust rather than of enforced regulations.  Nevertheless, their advice of seniors and vulnerable people isolating, and people staying apart in public is being followed.  They have not closed businesses or schools, however.  The projection for Sweden by the end of August is 10,200 deaths, with 95% limits of (3,500 to 38,000).  As of May 1 used in the fits, there were only 2,665 deaths.

Table of Projected Deaths of States not Relaxing Mitigations.

The columns are: the States; the Deaths on May 1; the Projected total Deaths With Reopening, from the May 4 fit; and the Projected total Deaths with Restrictions from the April 28 fit.

State Deaths Reopening Restricted
New York 23,800 32,100 24,100
New Jersey 7,483 16,000 7,100
Massachusetts 3,761 7,700 5,600
Michigan 3,915 7,100 3,800
Connecticut 2,347 4,100 3,400
Pennsylvania 2,665 8,600 2,300
Illinois 2,455 6,400 2,300
California 2,115 4,700 2,000

Table of Projected Deaths of States which have Relaxed Mitigations

State Deaths Reopening Restricted
Georgia 1,184 4,900 2,259
Florida 1,320 4,000 1,900
Indiana 1,151 6,200
Texas 853 3,600 1,900
Colorado 814 1,300 1,050
Kentucky 298 537 517
Mississippi 259 438 380
South Carolina 262 1,112 351
Wisconsin 329 717 331
Nevada 248 480
Arizona 328 1,045

In the Los Angeles Times, a new biology article has shown that the virus striking the East Coast was probably a mutation that was more spreadable than the original or West Coast virus.  This complicates the development of a vaccine with a year-long lead time.

Dr. Bright, who was in charge of vaccine development in HHS and was transferred, has filed a whistleblower complaint pointing out that he would not go along with the administration awarding contracts by cronyism.

The White House is considering disbanding the White House Coronavirus Task Force, perhaps by May Day, May 23rd.  This will also free up the Vice President to return to running for re-election.

 

About Dennis SILVERMAN

I am a retired Professor of Physics and Astronomy at U C Irvine. For a decade I have been active in learning about energy and the environment, and in lecturing and attending classes at the Osher Lifelong Learning Institute (OLLI) at UC Irvine.
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