We give the same table as two days ago but with the new updated projections. Some states had significant increases. The mobility or social distancing decreases have only changed slightly in two days.
The U. Washington Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) has updated their data on cases and deaths, as well as social distancing policies, on May 10. We present a table of the 30 leading US states in present deaths, IHME summer end projections, and percent of social distancing decrease in the long term. The social distancing projections level out by mid May, as in New York on May 15. The death data are the night numbers from Johns Hopkins on May 10.
Note: This table is being updated over the next hour.
The IHME projection of total US deaths has increased by 10,000, to 147,000, with a 95% probability range from 113,000 to 225,000. By June 1 the projection is 114,000. There are now about 84,000 deaths in the US. Total deaths projection for New York State are 34,100, with a range of 33,000 to 36,000. Total death projection for California are 5,800, with a range of 4,300 to 8,500.
The table has the state name, present deaths, projected deaths, and the projected long term percent of contact reduction by social distancing in the state’s policies.
| State | Deaths | Proj. Deaths | Distancing |
| New York | 27,477 | 34,100 | -61% |
| New Jersey | 9,714 | 14,700 | -56% |
| Massachusetts | 5,315 | 9,600 | -59% |
| Michigan | 4,714 | 6,600 | -48% |
| Pennsylvania | 4,094 | 12,400 | -28% |
| Illinois | 3,792 | 7,800 | -44% |
| Connecticut | 3,125 | 5,300 | -45% |
| California | 2,957 | 5,800 | -47% |
| Louisiana | 2,381 | 3,200 | -32% |
| Florida | 1,827 | 5,800 | -36% |
| Maryland | 1,809 | 3,800 | -56% |
| Indiana | 1,619 | 2,400 | -31% |
| Georgia | 1,517 | 2,100 | -28% |
| Ohio | 1,483 | 2,800 | -32% |
| Texas | 1,172 | 3,100 | -37% |
| Colorado | 1,062 | 1,600 | -44% |
| Washington | 974 | 1,200 | -48% |
| Virginia | 928 | 1,900 | -42% |
| Minnesota | 638 | 2,200 | -35% |
| North Carolina | 625 | 4,400 | -22% |
| Arizona | 595 | 2,900 | -43% |
| Missouri | 551 | 2,300 | -22% |
| Mississippi | 465 | 1,200 | -19% |
| Rhode Island | 462 | 920 | -34% |
| Alabama | 450 | 800 | -24% |
| Wisconsin | 421 | 790 | -32% |
| South Carolina | 362 | 470 | -23% |
| D. Of Columbia | 350 | 650 | -67% |
| Nevada | 331 | 530 | -49% |
| Kentucky | 321 | 730 | -30% |
We note that the states with the largest death tolls range in social distancing reduction from -44% to -61%, with the exception of Pennsylvania at a low value of -28%, Louisiana at -32%, and Indiana at -31%. The largest reduction of -61% is the most needed one, New York.
We note that most states are split between rural areas with fewer death rates, and urban areas with higher death rates, which are not reflected in just statewide data.
In general, I think of states above a 40% reduction as effective, and those below that as ineffective.
Pennsylvania, Mississippi, South Carolina, North Carolina, Alabama, Missouri, and Georgia are the least effective at less than 30% reduction. Their projected total deaths are two to four times those at present.
Next are Indiana, Wisconsin, Louisiana, Ohio, Rhode Island, and Kentucky in the low 30%, also with projected total deaths about a factor of 1.5 to two over the present number. Even those with 36% reduction have relatively high projected death increases.
CNN now has a map of states by the increase or decrease in deaths cases of the past week versus the previous week.
