Rising Deaths in IHME with Relaxation and Extension to October

Update, this evening:  as luck would not have it, IHME updated its model this evening, and the projected US deaths as of October 1 has risen to 201,000, with a 95% probability range of 172,000 to 269,000.  The value we quoted was 170,000.  Brazil is still projected to have 166,000 deaths by August 4.  Brazil’s social mobility will drop from -60% to -30%.

The latest June 10 IHME Coronavirus projections include relaxation of business closures and are now extended until October 1.  They show a relaxation in Social Distancing, and increased Deaths projected until October 1, 2020.  We show here their results for the four largest States, and some problem states.  Among the four largest, only Florida is up for grabs in the November election.  IHME is the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation at the U. Washington, with funding by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

First we note that Social Distancing, which had a reduction in contacts by 65% in the most serious states, has already been greatly reduced, and is projected to be very small by October 1.  I don’t know if they could have included the effects of the mass demonstrations for Black Lives Matters, nor the compacted Republican political events about to be enacted by President Trump.  Some states are still more than 30% or 40%.  By the end of summer, many states are positive up to 10%, or no more than 10% distancing.

We start with the US projection as a whole, and include the rising Brazilian tolls, as deaths per day, and total deaths, per 100,000.  The rates in Brazil rise so fast that they aren’t included beyond early August.  Total deaths in the US are projected to be 170,000 on October 1, and Brazil will almost exceed that with 166,000 deaths on August 4, two months earlier.  Brazil’s President is Jair Bolsonaro, who, like Trump now, is running the government with business as usual.  Brazil’s population is 209 million, compared with the US at 328 million.  6% or Brazil’s population, or more than 11 million, live in Favelas, which are unregulated and crowded shanty towns,  the largest being in Rio de Janiero, and in San Pablo.  The data from Brazil may be highly understated.

The total US death rate will rise back to about 1,ooo per day on October 1.  Brazil’s total death rate is projected at 5,000 per day on August 4.

We now look at the largest state, California at 40 million, and the most affected state, New York at 19 million.

 

We now include Texas at 29 million, Florida at 21 million, and the second most affected state, New Jersey, at 9 million.

 

About Dennis SILVERMAN

I am a retired Professor of Physics and Astronomy at U C Irvine. For two decades I have been active in learning about energy and the environment, and in reporting on those topics for a decade. For the last four years I have added science policy. Lately, I have been reporting on the Covid-19 pandemic of our times.
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