IHME Projects Masking Could Save 45,000 Lives by November

IHME Projections Until November.  Masking would save 45,000 lives.

The U. Washington IHME modeling has extended projections four months from now until Nov. 1, two days before the Nov. 3 election.  They show increases at the end of the summer, perhaps due to school starting.   The projections are made today, July 7.

The US has almost reached three million cases today.  At 3.3 million, it will be 1%.  US cases are increasing at over 50,000 a day.  Today there are 131,268 US deaths.  Projected deaths on Nov. 1 will be 208,000 continuing as present, but could be reduced to 163,000, or by 45,000, or 22%, if we could have 95% wearing masks when in the presence of non-family members.

I am including Countries and States where the future projected deaths have grown dramatically from present ones, or where there is a large number of deaths to be saved by masking.  First, some world Countries.

Countries Present Deaths Projection With Masks
US 131,268 208,255 162,808
Brazil 66,741 179,703 180,551
UK 44,476 68,367 48,420
Mexico 31,119 103,977 98,257
Iran 11,931 62,251 32,254
Russia 10,478 16,883 13,974
India 20,159 —-
Peru 10.952 39,112 39,807
Israel 342 2,259 1,230

We list some state with either large increases, or many lives saved with masking.

State Deaths Projection With Masks
CA 6,484 16,827 11,904
FL 3,840 17,472 9,849
TX 2,725 13,450 6,442
PA 6,787 9,999 8,270
AZ 1,927 5,553 3,542
AL 1,033 3,443 1,682
VA 1,879 5,190 3,019
OH 2,970 5,712 3,883
IN 664 1,908 1,052
MS 1,157 2,438 1,682
NV 548 1,304 750

Roughly 31,000, or 2/3 of the 45,000 lives saved by masking are in the states listed above.  In the top three populated states, California, Florida, and Texas, the lives saved by masking total 19,554 or almost 20,000.  They are 43% of the total 45,000 lives saved by masking.

Lives saved in California are 4,923 out of a total increase of 10,343 projected deaths, or 48%.  Lives saved in Florida by masking are 7,623 out of a total increase of 13,632 projected deaths, or 56%.  Lives saved in Texas by masking are 7,008 out of a total increase of 10,725 projected deaths, or 65%.

A new study shows that half of infections come from those who are presymptomatic, that is those who do not yet show symptoms and don’t yet know that they have the virus.  That is why we have to all wear masks.

To illustrate the 95% range of projections, the California projected deaths of about 17,000 have a range of 13,000 to 24,000.  We do not necessarily trust the announced deaths in some foreign countries.

About Dennis SILVERMAN

I am a retired Professor of Physics and Astronomy at U C Irvine. For a decade I have been active in learning about energy and the environment, and in lecturing and attending classes at the Osher Lifelong Learning Institute (OLLI) at UC Irvine.
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