IHME Projections Until November. Masking would save 45,000 lives.
The U. Washington IHME modeling has extended projections four months from now until Nov. 1, two days before the Nov. 3 election. They show increases at the end of the summer, perhaps due to school starting. The projections are made today, July 7.
The US has almost reached three million cases today. At 3.3 million, it will be 1%. US cases are increasing at over 50,000 a day. Today there are 131,268 US deaths. Projected deaths on Nov. 1 will be 208,000 continuing as present, but could be reduced to 163,000, or by 45,000, or 22%, if we could have 95% wearing masks when in the presence of non-family members.
I am including Countries and States where the future projected deaths have grown dramatically from present ones, or where there is a large number of deaths to be saved by masking. First, some world Countries.
| Countries | Present Deaths | Projection | With Masks |
| US | 131,268 | 208,255 | 162,808 |
| Brazil | 66,741 | 179,703 | 180,551 |
| UK | 44,476 | 68,367 | 48,420 |
| Mexico | 31,119 | 103,977 | 98,257 |
| Iran | 11,931 | 62,251 | 32,254 |
| Russia | 10,478 | 16,883 | 13,974 |
| India | 20,159 | — | —- |
| Peru | 10.952 | 39,112 | 39,807 |
| Israel | 342 | 2,259 | 1,230 |
We list some state with either large increases, or many lives saved with masking.
| State | Deaths | Projection | With Masks |
| CA | 6,484 | 16,827 | 11,904 |
| FL | 3,840 | 17,472 | 9,849 |
| TX | 2,725 | 13,450 | 6,442 |
| PA | 6,787 | 9,999 | 8,270 |
| AZ | 1,927 | 5,553 | 3,542 |
| AL | 1,033 | 3,443 | 1,682 |
| VA | 1,879 | 5,190 | 3,019 |
| OH | 2,970 | 5,712 | 3,883 |
| IN | 664 | 1,908 | 1,052 |
| MS | 1,157 | 2,438 | 1,682 |
| NV | 548 | 1,304 | 750 |
Roughly 31,000, or 2/3 of the 45,000 lives saved by masking are in the states listed above. In the top three populated states, California, Florida, and Texas, the lives saved by masking total 19,554 or almost 20,000. They are 43% of the total 45,000 lives saved by masking.
Lives saved in California are 4,923 out of a total increase of 10,343 projected deaths, or 48%. Lives saved in Florida by masking are 7,623 out of a total increase of 13,632 projected deaths, or 56%. Lives saved in Texas by masking are 7,008 out of a total increase of 10,725 projected deaths, or 65%.
A new study shows that half of infections come from those who are presymptomatic, that is those who do not yet show symptoms and don’t yet know that they have the virus. That is why we have to all wear masks.
To illustrate the 95% range of projections, the California projected deaths of about 17,000 have a range of 13,000 to 24,000. We do not necessarily trust the announced deaths in some foreign countries.
