The new weekly IHME projections of July 22 show that 34,000 American lives can be saved by 95% masking by November 1. Last week, the projection was for 42,000 lives saved. Projected Coronavirus deaths by Nov. 1 are now about 220,000, with 95% confidence levels of 142,000 (current deaths) to 284,000. With Universal Masking, the 95% confidence levels from 186,000 are 142,000 to 213,000. The US is about to reach 4 million cases. So the current increase in deaths are 220,000 minus 143,000 or 77,000. With Universal Masking, the deaths are 186,000 minus 143,000 or 43,000. Thus New deaths would be cut to 56%.
We list countries where the projected deaths are much larger than current deaths, and/or where many lives can be saved by Universal Masking. They are ordered by the Projected Deaths.
|Country||Present Deaths||Projection||With Masks|
We list the US states where the number of savable deaths are large, or the projected deaths are much larger than present ones.
The sum of lives saved with universal masking of the top four states is about 18,000. Out of the total US lives saved of 34,000, that is 53%. The states do not level off by Nov. 1, but in fact, the deaths keep rising steeply in the standard projection.
After the election on Nov. 3, there are still two and a half months to go in the Trump administration. So the new Administration is 180 days away, and Nov. 1 is 100 days away. Seeing the rather straight line projections, the remaining deaths in the Trump Administration are 180/100 = 1.8 times the gains of the Projection over the current Deaths.
The projected deaths to Nov. 1 are 220,000 minus 143,000 or 77,000 more until Nov. 1. Multiplying that by 1.8 gives 139,000 more. Adding that to the present 143,000 gives almost twice as many, or 282,000 deaths by January 20th. The number that could be saved by Universal Masking is 1.8 times 34,000 or 61,000. That would be about 22% of the deaths by January 20th. But since new deaths with masking would be 56% of those without until Nov. 1, this should also hold for new deaths until January 20th.