IHME Projections: 34,000 savable by complete masking.

The new weekly IHME projections of July 22 show that 34,000 American lives can be saved by 95% masking by November 1.  Last week, the projection was for 42,000 lives saved.  Projected Coronavirus deaths by Nov. 1 are now about 220,000, with 95% confidence levels of 142,000 (current deaths) to 284,000.  With Universal Masking, the 95% confidence levels from 186,000  are 142,000 to 213,000.  The US is about to reach 4 million cases.  So the current increase in deaths are 220,000 minus 143,000 or 77,000.  With Universal Masking, the deaths are 186,000 minus 143,000 or 43,000.  Thus New deaths would be cut to 56%.

We list countries where the projected deaths are much larger than current deaths, and/or where many lives can be saved by Universal Masking.  They are ordered by the Projected Deaths.

Country Present Deaths Projection With Masks
USA 142,756 219,864 185,887
Brazil 81,487 197,232 171,065
Mexico 41,190 97,923 85,742
India 28,732 —-
Iran 14,853 58,543 25,676
Peru 13,579 45,579 45,859
Indonesia 4,459 44,797 21,270
Russia 12,722 38,318 20,678
Bangladesh 2,751 24,305 8,320
Pakistan 5,677 19,934 9,452
Israel 430 4,182 2,266

We list the US states where the number of savable deaths are large, or the projected deaths  are much larger than present ones.

State Deaths Projection With Masks
CA 8,047 19,572 14,479
TX 4,439 18,812 14,508
FL 5,345 18,154 11,929
GA 3,335 7,336 4,952
AZ 2,974 5,664 5,061
AL 1,364 3,383 2,444
SC 1,285 3,186 1,872
CO 1,771 2,774 2,143
MS 1,423 2,516 2,067
NV 704 1,791 1,163
OK 474 1,533 789
AK 380 895 612

The sum of lives saved with universal masking of the top four states is about 18,000.  Out of the total US lives saved of 34,000, that is 53%.  The states do not level off by Nov. 1, but in fact, the deaths keep rising steeply in the standard projection.

After the election on Nov. 3, there are still two and a half months to go in the Trump administration.  So the new Administration is 180 days away, and Nov. 1 is 100 days away. Seeing the rather straight line projections, the remaining deaths in the Trump Administration are 180/100 = 1.8 times the gains of the Projection over the current Deaths.

The projected deaths to Nov. 1 are 220,000 minus 143,000 or 77,000 more until Nov. 1.  Multiplying that by 1.8 gives 139,000 more.  Adding that to the present 143,000 gives almost twice as many, or 282,000 deaths by January 20th.  The number that could be saved by Universal Masking is 1.8 times 34,000 or 61,000.  That would be about 22% of the deaths by January 20th.  But since new deaths with masking would be 56% of those without until Nov. 1, this should also hold for new deaths until January 20th.

About Dennis SILVERMAN

I am a retired Professor of Physics and Astronomy at U C Irvine. For a decade I have been active in learning about energy and the environment, and in lecturing and attending classes at the Osher Lifelong Learning Institute (OLLI) at UC Irvine.
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