Countries Can Save Many Lives By Masking, in IHME Coronavirus Projections

The August 6 IHME projections show which countries can benefit greatly from going to 95% masking.  They also show which countries have large increases in deaths in their future, without greater mitigations.  The new projections have been extended to December 1.

We present a table of Countries, Current Deaths as of August 6 from Johns Hopkins, Projected Deaths to December 1 with present policies, projected deaths With Masking, and Lives Saved by masking.  The Table focuses on countries with large projected increases, or with large numbers of lives to be saved by masking.

Country Current Deaths Projected Deaths With Masking Lives Saved
US 160,091 295,011 228,271 66,740
Brazil 98,493 192,511 167,644 24,867
Mexico 50,517 118,810 104,803 14,007
India 40,699 —- —— —-
Iran 17,976 71,548 38,387 33,161
Russia 14,579 55,314 20,422 34,892
Peru 20,228 44,232 43,829 403
Bangladesh 3,306 43,764 11,653 32,111
S. Africa 11,010 41,391 31,529 9,862
Ethiopia 479 38,081 13,603 24,478
Kenya 460 16,510 5,124 11,386
Indonesia 5,521 15,135 10,714 4,421
Pakistan 6,035 12,820 7,179 5,641
Senegal 244 6,878 2,904 3,974
Israel 576 6,180 5,257 923

Some of the countries do not have the resources to find all of the Coronavirus deaths.  The IHME does not include predictions for India, perhaps because of its large 1.35 billion population, and its combination of many states and large cities.  Clearly, the US as the third largest country at 0.33 billion, needs a masking policy more than other countries to save 67,000 lives by December 1.  The sum of the four next largest Lives Saved countries, Russia, Iran, Bangladesh and Brazil, is 125,000 lives saved, a very significant number.

The four countries with the largest number of cases are the US which is approaching 5 million, Brazil which is approaching 3 million, India which has reached 2 million, and Russia, which is approaching 0.9 million.

Update, August 13.  The IHME has added an article showing that masking Sub-Saharan Africa could save 60,125 lives by Dec. 1, reducing projected deaths from 126,225 to 66,100.  The four key countries are South Africa, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Senegal, which we have added to the table above.  Their sum of lives saved by masking is 49,700, or 83% of the total of lives saved in Sub-Saharan Africa.  The population of Sub-Saharan Africa was 856 million in 2010.

About Dennis SILVERMAN

I am a retired Professor of Physics and Astronomy at U C Irvine. For a decade I have been active in learning about energy and the environment, and in lecturing and attending classes at the Osher Lifelong Learning Institute (OLLI) at UC Irvine.
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