We make a table of the countries with the largest projected deaths on December 1 by the IHME projections. Some of them seem wildly out of line, but they are based on when current restrictions expire. Undoubtedly, most of the countries with few cases will extend restrictions to keep the number of deaths low. Their high death projection should then just serve as a warning of what can happen if they drop all expiring restrictions. Japan and the Philippines are the leading cases of this phenomena. We also show the IHME projections with 95% masking, and the number of lives savable by masking. For current deaths, we use Johns Hopkins data for midday August 30. We order the countries by the projected lives lost on December 1, and go down to 10,000.
| Country | Current Deaths | Projected Deaths | With Masking | Lives Saved |
| India | 63,498 | 445,265 | 291,145 | 154,120 |
| US | 183,020 | 317,312 | 249,834 | 67,478 |
| Brazil | 120,462 | 182,809 | 165,458 | 17,351 |
| Mexico | 63,819 | 118,709 | 106,202 | 12,507 |
| UK | 41,586 | 62,567 | — | — |
| Japan | 1,285 | 62,129 | 42,096 | 20,033 |
| Philippines | 3,520 | 58,643 | 58,079 | 564 |
| Spain | 29,011 | 52,529 | 50,331 | 2,198 |
| Columbia | 19,063 | 48,475 | 49,807 | – 1,332 |
| France | 30,611 | 48,039 | 36,597 | 11,442 |
| Iran | 21,462 | 45,397 | 30,407 | 14,990 |
| Peru | 28,607 | 45,354 | 45,193 | 161 |
| Italy | 35,477 | 41,741 | 38,413 | 3,328 |
| Russia | 17,045 | 40,039 | 21,977 | 18,062 |
| Iraq | 6,959 | 27,649 | 13,564 | 14,085 |
| Netherlands | 6,252 | 24,143 | 8,326 | 15,817 |
| Ethiopia | 758 | 23,756 | 9,357 | 14,399 |
| Argentina | 8,401 | 23,053 | 21,,519 | 1,534 |
| Ecuador | 6,555 | 21,432 | 21,303 | 129 |
| Morocco | 1,111 | 21,167 | 10,300 | 10,867 |
| S. Africa | 14,028 | 20,162 | 19,064 | 1,098 |
| Germany | 9,300 | 19,158 | 11,217 | 7,941 |
| Belgium | 9,891 | 17,863 | 14,914 | 2,949 |
| Bangladesh | 4,174 | 17,766 | 8,336 | 9,430 |
| Kazakhstan | 1,523 | 16,550 | 16,112 | 438 |
| Romania | 3,,578 | 14,447 | 8,449 | 5,998 |
| Turkey | 6,326 | 14,203 | 9,526 | 4,677 |
| Chile | 11,244 | 13,994 | 13,928 | 66 |
| Indonesia | 7,343 | 13,700 | 11,518 | 2,182 |
| Canada | 9,164 | 13,500 | 10,400 | 3,100 |
| Pakistan | 6,288 | 10,672 | 7,163 | 3,509 |
| Sweden | 5,821 | 10,092 | 6,420 | 3,672 |
For comparison, China has had 4,722 deaths, and no projections have been made by IHME.
