IHME Projected Deaths Worldwide and by Region, with Savable Lives by Masking

The September 3 IHME at the University of Washington projected deaths are now for Janauary 1 and cover the world.  They are now broken down by regions, and then countries.  We also show the lives lost in each region by 95% masking.  The difference are then lives savable by masking in each region.  Current world masking is modeled at 60%.

For brevity, all of the numbers in the article are in thousands, which we abbreviate by the metric k for kilo.

Globally, present deaths are 897 k.  Projected Global deaths by January 1 are 2,811 k, and with masking are 2,042 k, saving 770 k lives.

A brief summary of the IHME data analysis are that 271 k lives are savable by masking in Europe and Central Asia, 218 k in South Asia, 129 k in North America, 76 k in North Africa and Middle East, and much less in other regions.

The table below has the Regions, Current Deaths, Projected Deaths, Deaths with 95% Masking, and Lives Saved by 95% masking.  All numbers in the table are rounded and in thousands.  The regions are ordered by lives saved.  Current deaths are taken off of their projections for September 1.

Of the 770 k lives savable by masking, 618 k occur in the top three Regions, and 694 k occur in the top four Regions.