Countries with the Largest IHME Projected Deaths to January 1, 2021

We make a table of the countries with the largest projected deaths on January 1, 2021, by the IHME projections.  Some of them seem wildly out of line, but they are probably based on when current restrictions expire.  Undoubtedly, most of the countries with few cases will extend restrictions to keep the number of deaths low.  Their high death projection should then just serve as a warning of what can happen if they drop all expiring restrictions.  Japan and the Philippines are the leading cases of this phenomena.  We also show the IHME projections with 95% masking, and the number of lives savable by masking.  For current deaths, we use Johns Hopkins data for midday September 5.  We order the countries by the projected lives lost on December 1, and go down to 30,000.

Country Current Deaths Projected Deaths With Masking Lives Saved
India 69,561 659,531 484,981 174,550
US 188,274 410,451 288,381 122,070
Brazil 125,502 174,297 160,566 13,731
Mexico 66,851 138,828 130,544 8,284
Japan 1,361 120,514 104,808 15,706
Russia 17,707 94,905 26,668 68,237
France 30,730 73,743 46,622 27,121
UK 41,638 69,548 59,819 9,729
Spain 29,418 69,445 66,508 2,937
Philippines 3,790 58,412 58,030 382
Italy 35,534 56,071 43,917 12,154
Peru 29,554 46,666 46,528 138
Iran 22,154 46,137 28,716 17,421
Netherlands 6,274 35,078 10,441 24,637
Argentina 9,685 33,220 30,943 2,277
Iraq 7,422 31,181 17,195 13,986

The main lives to be saved overall by masking are in India, the United States, and Russia.  They total about 365,000.  This is about half of the 770,000 which can be saved world wide by masking.  In many countries above, a considerable portion of deaths can be saved by masking.

About Dennis SILVERMAN

I am a retired Professor of Physics and Astronomy at U C Irvine. For a decade I have been active in learning about energy and the environment, and in lecturing and attending classes at the Osher Lifelong Learning Institute (OLLI) at UC Irvine.
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