The Odds of Getting Infected at a Trump Rally are Disgustingly High
Trump has continued daily rallies with fans packed as close together as possible, and who don’t wear masks. Their behavior time together also lead to infection vulnerability. The only grace, is that some of them are outdoors. We expound on these behaviors, indicate known infection factors, and speculate on infectious proclivities of the participants.
First, we list the protective factors of the rallies. One is that there may be a temperature screening. Only about 1/3 of the infected show a temperature, so this is limited. Another protective factor, is that the rallies are held outdoors. Outdoor infections are about 1/18 as likely as indoor infections. However, crowded hangers with little breeze are not fully outdoors. A third factor is that people not admitted to hospitals are only infective for 14 days, the period of quarantining, and highly infective for only a few days. The counter to that, is that there are superinfectors, who can infect entire rooms.
It is now known that masks protect the wearer, cutting down the risk of infection to 1/3 of that unmasked. They of course also protect others if the wearer is infected. While I feel that a portion of attendees would normally wear masks, they may feel social pressure in the rallies to not stand out among the faithful.
It is now known that social distancing cuts the risk of infection by a factor of 1/10. This may refer to droplets at 6 feet, but aerosols can travel further and stay airborne for periods of an hour. None of those numbers is really precise.
Putting the two above factors naively show that attendees are 30 times more likely to be infected at a Trump rally, as opposed to a masked social distancing event with the average population. If they are in a nice breezy outdoor setting, and not for a long time, 15 minutes is used, they may be okay. However, Trump speaks for an hour or more, and screened admissions might be slow. There also may be introductory speakers, and a concert of music before exiting.
Of course, the main sources of contagion are people in the first 2 or 3 days of infection, when they are presymptomatic and have no symptoms. The most dangerous people are the 40% who remain asymptomatic, and can infect others for the quarantining period of 14 days.
Here come the incalculables that Trump rallies are not with the average population, but the most dangerous infectious subset. The rally behavior is also the most infectious imaginable. Enthusiasts are standing and cheering or chanting slogans loudly, the ideal behavior for oral transmission and ideal for superspreaders. Chanters are standing literally inches behind those in front of them. For hours.
Another restriction violated by Trump rallies is the size of the crowd. The more people gathering in a compact group, the more infected people you and all others are exposed to, and the greater the probability of being in the presence of a superspreader.
If you ask the participants, they will give you all of the reasons why they are the most dangerous crowd that can be assembled. They have been thoroughly indoctrinated by Fox News, by Trump himself, and by Trump favoring social media, to believe that the Coronavirus is not a danger. Either: it is no worse than a cold; it is no worse than the flu; it is a Hoax; it’s Fake; I am young and healthy, therefore safe; only old people catch it and die; only minorities get it and die; masking gives up my freedom; masking is not masculine; only 6% of those dying from the Coronavirus actually die from the virus itself; social distancing is whatever; and you have to ask them, I really can’t imagine conspiracy ones. Therefore, they have been ignoring all safety behavior, and easily going to parties, bars, crowded restaurants, and hanging out with similarly dangerous people. With the non-dangerous beliefs, they are not going to test, not going to doctors, not going to quarantine, and not going to skip work or a rally if they are sick, or had contact with a sick person. Maximally Dangerous.
Please don’t get me wrong. I am not putting these people down. Anybody can become indoctrinated with different things. We normally just live with these, and choose our friends. The problem is when they become dangerous to themselves and others. But many people are just living their lives, without spending their entire lives learning about the Coronavirus.
Why does Trump do this? First, he is the world’s biggest EGO. Second, he has chosen as his “scientific” advisor Dr. Atlas, who is a believer in herd immunity, and a Trump rally is designed to bring that about as soon as possible. Third, nobody knows.
Finally, and very serious, is that Trump rally attendees are not the very young and healthy who are most likely to walk away from the virus asymptomatically, or with no hospitalization or physiological damage. They are not the crowd to use to obtain herd immunity. For example, obesity has been measured by states and by counties, and Republican ones have more obesity, although by a percentage, not a factor. Obesity is a known factor for Coronavirus complications and deaths. In general, 45% of the population have old age or other comorbidity factors.
But, unfortunately, we are still not done. Nobody gets a list of attendees with their IDs and addresses and phone numbers. I suspect that the Secret Service may well require these for invitations or entrance. But nobody can contact trace or give after-tests to scientifically find out how infectious the rallies are.
What is the point of this article? That the rallies are even more dangerous than we imagine, but it is purposely hard to verify that.
