The US Reaches 200,000 Coronavirus Deaths. IHME Projects 180,000 More by January 1.


Tomorrow, the US should reach 200,000 Coronavirus Deaths.  IHME Projects 180,000 More by January 1.  63% of those can be saved by 95% masking.

Fortunately, the Sept. 18, weekly IHME projected deaths on January 1 have dropped 37,000, from 415,000 last week to 378,000 today. 

While 200,000 have died by today in the US, another 180,000 could die by January 1.  Present US masking is only at 45%.  With 95% masking, 115,000 of those lives, or 63%, could be saved.  Daily deaths will rise to about 3,000 deaths per day on January 1.  With complete masking, they will drop back to about 1,000 a day.

In the US the model estimate of detected cases is still only 22%.  There are only 230 tests per 100,000.  This doesn’t agree with Trump’s claim of 100 million tests.

US mask wearing is 45%.  California and Florida have mask wearing in the 55%-59% bin, and other Southern states are 45% to 49%.

On January 1, the Percent infected in some key states will be:  CA and FL, 13.5%-16.4%; Texas and Southern states 19.5%-22.4%; NY, NJ, and LA, > 25.5%.

If herd immunity requires 65% infected, there will be 1.3 million deaths. If 50% are infected, there will be 1.0 million deaths.  If only 40% are infected, there will be 0.82 million deaths.

We show the leading States in Present Deaths, Projected Deaths, Deaths with 95% Maksing, and the Lives Saved by Masking.  They are ordered by Projected Deaths on January 1.  California, Texas, Michigan and Virginia have dropped a lot in projected deaths from last week.

State Present Deaths Projected Deaths With Masking Lives Saved
NY 33,081 43,857 35,511 8,346
CA 15,017 43,856 28,340 15,516
TX 15,051 29,319 20,510 8,809
FL 13,287 26,472 23,384 3,088
NJ 16,064 22,710 20,487 2,223
IL 8,672 15,523 9,952 5,571
PA 7,940 14,703 9,969 4,734
MA 9,295 13,743 10,745 2,998
GA 6,599 12,813 8,594 4,219
OH 4,612 11,121 6,056 5,065
NC 3,235 10,581 5,697 4,884
AZ 5,451 9,388 6,812 2,576

The top state for lives saved, California, is 13.5% of the total of lives saved.  The four largest population states at the top of the table account for 31.1% of the lives saved.

About Dennis SILVERMAN

I am a retired Professor of Physics and Astronomy at U C Irvine. For a decade I have been active in learning about energy and the environment, and in lecturing and attending classes at the Osher Lifelong Learning Institute (OLLI) at UC Irvine.
This entry was posted in Coronavirus, COVID-19, Health Care, IHME Projections. Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply