Global Deaths Approach a Million, 2.7 Million Projected for January 1

As Global Deaths Approach a Million, 2.7 Million Deaths are Projected for January 1.

Global deaths today are 958,000, or 96% of a million.  The IHME Sept. 18 projections for January 1 are 2.667 million deaths.  With 95% mask wearing, that can be reduced by 0.730 million to 1.937 million.

Compared to present deaths of 0.958 million, there will be 1.709 million more deaths by January 1.  With 95% masking, that will be reduced to 0.979 million more.  That is 57.3% of those without more masking, or a saving of 43% of the lives to be lost.

Global deaths per day will reach 33,625 on January 1 with present 59% world masking, but that can be reduced to 19,699 a day with 95% masking, a reduction of 41%.

This week’s IHME projection for deaths on January 1 is 111,000 lower than last week’s.  The deaths saved by 95% masking on January 1 has increased to 730,000 this week from 715,000 last week.

We present leading countries in the number of deaths projected by IHME for January 1, the number of deaths expected with masking, the number of lives saved by masking, and the percentage of current masking.

 

Country Present Deaths Projected Deaths Deaths with Masking Lives Saved Current Masking
India 86,752 625,165 430,587 194,578 68%
US 199,481 378,321 263,484 114,837 46%
Brazil 136,532 170,072 159,828 10,244 69%
Mexico 73,258 139,894 134,302 5,592 81%
Russia 19,349 98,182 30,940 67,242 33%
UK 41,866 93,429 65,566 27,863 43%
France 31,257 88,528 74,290 14,238 58%
Italy 35,707 67,687 53,171 14,516 61%
Spain 30,495 65,921 64,912 1,009 92%
Iran 24,301 62,476 36,777 25,699 53%
Turkey 7,506 54,434 49,362 5,072 73%
Philippines 4,984 52,979 50,905 2,074 89%
Colombia 24,039 50,579 46,667 3,912 88%
Peru 31.369 44,594 44,415 179 91%
Japan 1,508 39,447 24,730 14,717 85%
Iraq 8,555 29,748 14,982 14,766 42%
S. Korea 373 29,469 24,079 5,390 90%

Clearly, it is hard to imagine Japan or S. Korea rapidly accelerating deaths in December with their high masking percentages.  The model might need some revisions here.

In many projections, you can see that present high masking percentages lead to smaller gains with increasing masking to 95%.  It is also clear that even progressing to 80% mask wearing reduces most of the new fatalities.

About Dennis SILVERMAN

I am a retired Professor of Physics and Astronomy at U C Irvine. For a decade I have been active in learning about energy and the environment, and in lecturing and attending classes at the Osher Lifelong Learning Institute (OLLI) at UC Irvine.
This entry was posted in Coronavirus, COVID-19, Health Care, IHME Projections. Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply