One Million Global Deaths will Increase to 2.5 Million by Next Year

One Million Global Deaths will Increase to 2.5 Million by Next Year

The number of Global Deaths is almost at a Million, at 0.988 million today.  The IHME projection is for 2.518 million by January 1, or 2 and a 1/2 million by New Years, which is a global holiday.  Subtracting the current million lives lost, that will be another 1.5 million lives lost.

The current world masking is at 58%.  If we adopted masking at 95% that could be reduced to 1.814 million, saving 0.704 million or 704,000 lives.  That is 3 and a half times as many lives as the US has lost so far.

The estimated number of global infections is 1,965 thousand or almost 2 million, while confirmed infections are 250 thousand, giving a ratio of 7.86.  Graphically, the IHME shows that only 10% of global infections are detected, so the ratio is 10.  So we have two sources within the IHME, but they are very close numbers.

There are 32.7 million global cases so far.  Of course, over the year that the cases occurred, the ratio was different, but since I am naive, I would say that there are at least 10 x 33 million = 330 million global cases.  Out of the the world population of 7,800 million, this says that 4.2% of the world population has been infected.

On January 1, global daily deaths are projected to be 33,272 per day.  With 95% masking, this can be reduced to almost half, at 17,456 deaths per day.  The exact ratio is a reduction to 52.5%.  In looking at other countries, even an increase of masking to 80% will prevent most of the extra deaths. 

If typical infected are infectious for 14 days, and 2 million are infected each day, then 28 million people are going around infectious in the world.  Out of the 7,800 million world population, this is one out of every 280 people, or roughly, one out of 300.  

Recall, that the result for the US in the last article was 1 out of 200 are infectious.  I also did this for the IHME model for Europe and Central Asia which also includes Russia, and got the result of 1 out of every 400 is infectious on any given day.

If worldwide herd immunity occurred at 60%, the IHME says that there will be 15.7 million deaths.  If herd immunity occurs at 50%, there would be 13.1 million deaths.  And if herd immunity occurs at 40%, there would be 10.4 million deaths.

As I finish this, I am watching the White House nomination of Amy Coney Barrett for the Supreme Court, where the White House personnel and guests, including Chris Christy, and HHS Secretary Alex Azar weren’t masked, nor were the closely packed people waiting in line and closely seated for hours for Trump’s upcoming rally in Middletown Pennsylvania.

Since this whole series of articles is on Health Care, I cannot exclude pointing out that Justice Barrett will vote against the Affordable Care Act, removing complete health care from 23 million Americans, and subjecting 103 million Americans to losing health care for pre-existing conditions.  This could also include having caught the Coronavirus.

About Dennis SILVERMAN

I am a retired Professor of Physics and Astronomy at U C Irvine. For a decade I have been active in learning about energy and the environment, and in lecturing and attending classes at the Osher Lifelong Learning Institute (OLLI) at UC Irvine.
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