US States and World Country Coronavirus Infections and Masking

The IHME U. Of Washington model comes with maps of US States and World Countries with their percentages of infections.  In the US, we can also compare the projection to New Year’s, January 1, 2021.  We also show a map of the percentage of people masking in each states.

These are the IHME estimated percent infected as of September 21, 2020.  I don’t know what the national average is, but the states are even more relevant, since policies are often set by states.

Noting the four highest population states, I think that California is 4%-6.9%, Texas is 10.5%-13.4%, Florida is 7%-10.4%, and New York is 19.5%-22.4%.

This map has the percent infected by states on January 1, 2021.

On January 1, the four largest states are projected to rise to:  California 13.5%-16.4%; Texas 22.5%-25.9%; Florida 13.5%-16.4%; and New York 22.5%-25.9%.

Those wearing masks on September 21 by State are below.

California masks at 57%, Texas at 55%, Florida at 58%, and New York at 44%.  The US average is 48%.

The infectiousness or contagiousness is not directly the total who have been infected, but the sum of those infected over the last 14 days, times an infectability curve, before antibodies are developed.

The September 21 map of infections by countries is given below, along with a close up of South America.  The detailed US map is the first one above.

The detailed South America Map is below.

The darkest orange state on the Pacific Ocean is Ecuador, with greater than 46.5% infected.  The dark orange is the Roraima state of Brazil, with 39.8%-46.4%, and below that is Amazonas with 28.5%-34.1%.  The darkest green on the Atlantic is Uruguay with 2.9%-5.7%, and above that is Rio Grande do Sul,  with 5.8-11.4%.

While claims by President Trump that the Coronavirus will someday just fade away seem unreasonable, the IHME also published the projections of five other models of which four show that.  The IHME high growth curve is the top green one.

 

By this weekend, we may see an extension of IHME through a holiday bump to February 1, which could be shocking.

About Dennis SILVERMAN

I am a retired Professor of Physics and Astronomy at U C Irvine. For a decade I have been active in learning about energy and the environment, and in lecturing and attending classes at the Osher Lifelong Learning Institute (OLLI) at UC Irvine.
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