US Projections of 85,000 Savable by Masking, and CA, TX, FL, and NY Projections

US Projections of 85,000 Savable by Masking and CA, TX, FL, and NY 

We present the October 2nd IHME projections for the US and the four largest states until January 1, 2021.  We show the projected deaths and those savable by masking.  We also show the expected deaths per day and compare it to the present rate.  We also show the current infections per day and compare that to the confirmed ones, finding a ratio of about 4 to 1, the national ratio.

The IHME projects rising national deaths in December, to reach 363,000 by January 1, close to the 372,000 projection of last week, and the 378,000 the week before.  The 363,000 is 156,000 more than now, in just three more months.  95% masking, instead of the current 49%, or half, will result in about 278,000 deaths, saving about 85,000 lives.

The flagrant flouting of masking at the White House celebration, no less, and its consequent infection of our nation’s leaders, shows the effectiveness of masking.  Don’t do what they do, do what your doctors say.  This power elite rejoicing of another stolen lifelong Supreme Court position to be passed a week before an election will now go down in US history in the role it played in the infection of the President, only a month before his date for re-election.  It is also extremely ironic that the Judgeship is being rushed so that Justice Barrett could hear the case to destroy Obamacare, removing health insurance for 23 million, and putting 103 million at risk for losing healthcare because of their preexisting conditions.

This Supreme Court Circus has sidelined the President, the First Lady, and Chris Christie, Hope Hicks and Kellyanne Conway who prepared Trump for his first debate, in a small room.  It sidelined Bill Stepien, Trump’s campaign manager, and Ronna McDaniel, Chair of the Republican National Committee.  It sickened two members of the Senate Judicial Committee, Sen. Mike Lee, and Sen. Thom Tillis, and inderectly, maybe Sen. Ron Johnson.

Projected deaths per day on New Year’s Day are 2,941, but can be reduced to 41% or 1,196 by full masking, saving 745 lives per day.  The 2,941 is four times the 749 present deaths per day.

The current estimate of infections per day by IHME is 137,920.  Compared to current confirmed ones of about 40,000 per day, gives a ratio of 3.45.  The graphical representation estimates that only 23% of daily infections are currently confirmed, leading to a ratio of true infections to confirmed of 4.35.  So these two methods differ by a bit.

California is projected to have 41,852 deaths by January 1, but would only have 26,763 deaths if 95% masked, saving 15,089 lives.  This is almost as many as the current lives lost of 16,077.

On January 1, California is projected to have 580 deaths per day, which would be reduced to 230 deaths per day with full masking, saving 350 deaths per day.  There are only 90 deaths per day now.

The estimated cases per day now are 13,947, and the actual average is around 3,500, giving a factor of 4.0 for estimated to confirmed cases.

Texas is projected to have 29,741 cases by January 1, which can be reduced to 22,812 by masking, saving the lives of 6,929 Texans.  As of now, 16,024 lives have been lost.

On January 1, there are projected to be 252 deaths per day, which will be reduced to 97 if masked, about the same as the 95 current deaths per day, instead of 2 and 2/3 as much.

There are currently estimated by IHME to be 18,247 new infections per day, compared to around 4,000 per day confirmed, giving a ratio of 4.56.

Florida is projected to have 26,761 deaths per day on January 1, which can be reduced to 23,747, saving 3,014 Floridians with 95% masking.  There are currently 14,485 deaths, with 57% masking.

IHME models that there are 13,424 infections per day at present, compared to about 3,000 per day confirmed, for a ratio of 4.5.

New York starts out with 33,200 deaths currently, and is projected to increase to 39,208 on January 1, which could be reduced to 35,071 with complete masking.  That would save 4,137 lives.

Deaths per day on January 1 are projected at 166, which can be reduced to a quarter or 38 with 95% masking.  There are only 12 currently, with 48% masking.

IHME estimates 2,503 infections per day, with about 800 a day being tested, for a ratio of 3.1.

Percent Infected on January 1 by State

Daily Deaths per Million on January 1 by State 

 

About Dennis SILVERMAN

I am a retired Professor of Physics and Astronomy at U C Irvine. For two decades I have been active in learning about energy and the environment, and in reporting on those topics for a decade. For the last four years I have added science policy. Lately, I have been reporting on the Covid-19 pandemic of our times.
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