Global Deaths 2.3 Million for January 1, Daily Infections May Be 10 times those Confirmed
A million confirmed deaths from the Coronavirus, and 600,000 lives could be saved by January 1, by 95% masking.
Update: Oct. 5. The W.H.O. Has estimated that one in ten people worldwide have been infected. This was based on antibody tests. 10% of 7.60 billion people is 760 million, but only 35 million are confirmed cases worldwide. That means the ratio of infected to confirmed cases is 22 to 1 worldwide. The W.H.O. Also said that the top 3 countries have half of the total cases and deaths, and the top 10 have 70% of cases and deaths.
We elaborate the Global IHME projections of October 2, and those of the six leading countries in deaths by January 1, namely: India, United States, Brazil, Mexico, Russia, United Kingdom, and France. We also look at the projected deaths per day on January 1 with and without masking and highly escalated over today’s deaths per day. Finally, we look at the large factors by which estimated infections per day exceed those of confirmed infections.
Globally, there are 1.070 million deaths from the Coronavirus confirmed today. The Economist estimates that the real number is two million. The daily factor from the IHME model is from 8 to 10 times larger, and was even larger in the past, so that the total deaths are even larger than that factor. There are also collateral deaths from deferred medical care, although there are lives saved from the flu.
The 2.343 m Global Coronavirus deaths projected on January 1, 2021 can be reduced to 1.751 m by 95% masking, saving 0.592 m lives. Current world masking is 59% and change in mobility is down 18% from normal.
Deaths per day are modeled at 5,553 today, but will increase five-fold to a horrendous 28,609 by January 1. These can be cut in half to 14,266 a day by 95% masking, saving 13,343 lives per day.
Global daily infections today are modeled at 1.964 million per day, but only 0.250 million per day are confirmed. That gives a factor of almost 8 of estimated to confirmed. A separate graph in the Global writeup shows 10.5% detected, leading to a factor of 9.5.
We give a table of present October 4 modeled deaths, projected deaths by January 1 for leading countries, deaths with 95% masking, lives saved by masking, and present percent masking.
Total Deaths
| Country | Present Deaths | Projected Deaths | Deaths with Masking | Lives Saved | Current Masking |
| India | 102,199 | 410,135 | 282,921 | 127,214 | 68% |
| US | 208,759 | 363,269 | 278,526 | 84,743 | 49% |
| Brazil | 147,030 | 180,765 | 172,179 | 8,586 | 67% |
| Mexico | 78,800 | 118,729 | 111,021 | 7,708 | 81% |
| UK | 57,954 | 115,887 | 82,199 | 33,688 | 45% |
| Russia | 21,193 | 92,436 | 35,223 | 57,213 | 33% |
| France | 32,578 | 88,402 | 72,569 | 15,833 | 62% |
We present a table from the IHME model by country of present deaths per day, projected January 1 deaths per day, deaths per day with 95% masking, and lives savable by masking.
Deaths per Day
| Country | Current deaths/day | Projected deaths/day | Deaths/day masking | Lives saved/day |
| India | 1,060 | 8,622 | 4,515 | 4,107 |
| US | 749 | 2,941 | 1,196 | 715 |
| Brazil | 724 | 155 | 58 | 97 |
| Mexico | 374 | 607 | 471 | 136 |
| UK | 62 | 1,198 | 617 | 581 |
| Russia | 140 | 1,675 | 284 | 1,391 |
| France | 108 | 613 | 417 | 196 |
Current estimated infections per day in India are 626,798, with about an average of 85,000 per day confirmed. The ratio of estimated to confirmed is then 7.4. A graph in IHME shows that 9% of infections are detected in the model, making the ratio 11.
Current estimated infections per day in Brazil are 164 thousand (k), with about an average of 25 k confirmed. This gives a ratio of 6.6. A graph shows about 10.5% are detected, giving a ratio of 9.5.
Current estimated infections per day in Mexico are 118 k, with about an average of 4.5 k confirmed. This gives a ratio of 6.2.
A graph show about 9% of infections per day are confirmed in the UK. That gives a ratio of infections per day to confirmed of 11.
Current estimated infections per day in the Russian Federation are 35.8 k, with about an average of 8 k confirmed, giving a ratio of 4.5.
Current estimated infections per day in France are 14.8 k, with about an average of 12 k confirmed. This gives a ratio of only 1.24.
Estimated Percent Infected in the Americas on September 28.
Currently, the US is 6.5-12.4% infected, and Brazil and Mexico are 18.5-24.4% infected.
Estimated Percent Infected in the Americas on January 1.
On January 1, the US is 12.5-18.4% infected. Brazil is 18.5-24.4% infected, and Mexico is 30.5-36.4% infected, in the IHME projections.
Estimated Percent Infected in Europe on September 28.
Estimated Percent Infected in Europe on January 1, from IHME
The UK goes from 5.5-6.9% now, to >= 13.5% on January 1.
Russia goes from 3.5-5.4% now, to >= 13.5% on January 1.
France goes from 2-3.4% now, to 7-8.4% on January 1.
