Global IHME Projected Total and Daily Deaths and Infections to February 1
The IHME University of Washington Medical School model has currently 1.108 million (m) Global deaths from the Coronavirus. Their projection to February 1 is 2.488 m. With 95% masking that can be reduced to 1.782 m, saving 0.706 m lives. Thus the fraction of 51% can be saved by 95% masking. Current average world masking is 59%. There is currently a drop of 19% in world mobility.
Current deaths per day in the model are 5,352. On February 1, the projected deaths per day are triple that at 16,844. That can be reduced to 7,506 or to 45% of that rate with 95% masking. The peak of deaths per day is projected to be January 12 with 17,430 per day.
The Lakers just won the NBA championship, which means that Bubbles work. But they really need to keep in bubbles forever, rather than risk damaging their lungs, hearts, or any other organs. The season ran 3 months.
Current Global infections per day are 1.780 m, which is a factor of 7.1 larger than the confirmed infections per day of about 0.250 m. The peak is projected to occur around January 17, at 5.039 m per day. With masking that would be reduced to 1.939 m per day, a reduction to 38%.
On February 1, there are projected to be 4.919 m per day, which can be reduced 1.934 m with 95% masking, a reduction to 39%.
Both the IHME and the Imperial models now show peaking of the same order around the New Year.
