The IHME Coronavirus Projections now input masking data by State from Facebook. This is in the Map below. The Facebook data has national masking at 69%, a full 20% higher than the previous 49% national masking. The effects of masking have also increased in the IHME model.
National Geographic took a survey of people who when they went out Mostly wore a Mask, Sometimes wore a Mask, and Never or Rarely wore a Mask. We have a table of their results relative to Political Party. The data are from October 2020.
|Party Segment||Always mask||Sometimes Mask||Rarely or Never mask|
The good news is, despite the large number unsure of taking a vaccine, or those that show up unmasked at Trump rallies, only 12% of Republicans don’t wear masks. The other good news is that Democrats achieve 96% when needed, and the goal is the 95% to save half of the lives to be lost, by the IHME model. Independents not masking come in between Democrats and Republicans. A little leadership by Trump or his family, or his White House, or at his rallies, could bring Republicans up to the 95% limit. It’s best to do it now in the last three weeks of the election, when people are paying attention.
The October 9 IHME calculations show the number of lives that would be lost if we tried to retreat to just herd immunity, at both the Global and National level. Here is the CNN graphic of it, for levels of where herd immunity is from 40% to 60%. The herd immunity is from catching the Coronavirus.
Some vaccines should be available by February, when the US total of lives lost will be about 400,000. The Administration says that vaccines given to the most vulnerable at the start will drop deaths by 80%-90%. Getting to the herd immunity percentage with vaccinations has a lot fewer lives lost. Global lives lost to February 1 are 2.5 million, and a global vaccine available by then could also lower further lives lost.