US Excess Deaths Exceed Covid-19 Reported Deaths by 50%

A new article in JAMA, the Journal of the American Medical Association by Woolf et al., reports on excess deaths in the US and its states, from March 1 to August 1, 2020.  Even if all of these are not directly due to Covid-19, it doesn’t make any difference to those who died or to those mourning for them.  They are casualties of a pandemic that has been running wild in our country, while it has been stopped in many other countries.

In the US over the above 5 months there were 226,000 excess deaths, of which only 67% were attributed at least in part to Covid-19.  That leaves 33% of them or a half uncounted in Covid-19 confirmed death reports.

We show results for individual states in a table, starting with the US and the four largest states by population, and then ordering states by excess mortality per 100,000.  We then list their percent listed as due to Covid-19, and finally, their excess deaths over those expected in a normal period for those months.

State Excess Mortality per 100,000 % Listed as Covid-19 Excess Deaths
US 72 67% 225,530
CA 43 61% 17,002
TX 62 56% 17,772
FL 67 60% 14,250
NY 209 78% 40,863
NJ 202 78% 18,004
D.C. 129 74% 907
MA 120 95% 8,261
AZ 104 53% 7,471
MS 104 56% 3,104
MD 96 66% 5,809
DL 93 54% 899
RI 89 104% 940
MI 88 67% 8,797
IL 83 66% 10,601
AL 81 53% 3,936
SC 79 47% 4,009
PA 71 83% 9,106

For California, the 61% confirmed Covid-19 deaths means that 39% of excess deaths were not included.  The ratio 39%/61% = 0.64 means that their were 64% more deaths than were attributed to Covid-18, during that time period.

For Texas, the 56% confirmed Covid-19 deaths means that 44% of excess deaths were not included.  The ratio 44%/56% = 0.79 means that there were 79% more excess deaths than those attributed to Covid-19.

In Trump’s town hall, he said we did better in excess deaths than European countries, so he is well aware of this.

About Dennis SILVERMAN

I am a retired Professor of Physics and Astronomy at U C Irvine. For a decade I have been active in learning about energy and the environment, and in lecturing and attending classes at the Osher Lifelong Learning Institute (OLLI) at UC Irvine.
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