IHME Projections Stay the Course

October 15 IHME Projections Stay the Course

Global

Global deaths are projected to February 1 as 2.419 million.  With 95% masking, this can be reduced to 1.800 million, saving 619,000 lives, about the same as last week.  Current deaths are at 1.135 millions, so there are 1.284 million to go.  The lives saved are 48%.  Current world average masking is 59%.

There are an estimated 1.734 million infections per day, with 0.250 million confirmed per day.  This gives a 6.9 ratio.

United States

The US projected deaths for February 1 are almost 400,000, more precisely 389,087, down 5,600 from last week.  With 95% masking, the deaths are 314,773, saving 74,314.  Using IHME, present deaths are 216,511, showing 172,576 to go to February 1.  The ratio of saved to deaths to go is 43.1%.  Current masking is 69%.  Daily deaths per day peak about January 15 at about 2,400.

Estimated current daily infections are 115,570 whereas confirmed have been 40,000, giving a ratio of 2.9.  Graphically, the ratio is 1/0.24 = 4.2. 

Today, the US confirmed cases passed 8 million.  Using the 4.2 ratio, this gives about 34 million, meaning that the US may have reached 10% infection.  With the 2.9 ratio, it would be 23 million infected, or 7.0%.

California

California projected deaths to February 1 are 36,071, down about 8,000 from last week.  With 95% masking this is projected at 26,564, saving 9,507 lives.  Current deaths are 16,823, so there are 19,248 to go.  The lives saved are 49.4% of those.  Current masking is 73%.

Estimated current daily infections are 7,268 with confirmed about 3,500 per day, giving a 2.1 ratio.

Texas

Texas projected deaths to February 1 are 31,301, about 4,000 more than last week.  Those with 95% masking are 24,045, saving 7,256 lives.  Current deaths are 16,869, leaving 14,432 to go.  Those that can be saved are 50.3% of those to go.  Current masking is 69%.

Florida

Florida projected deaths to February 1 are 28,656, same as last week.  Those with 95% masking are 24,995, saving 3,661.  Present deaths are 15,773, leaving 12,883 to go.  The saved lives are 28.4% of those projected losses.  Current masking is 68%.  The deaths per day peak in the middle of December.

About Dennis SILVERMAN

I am a retired Professor of Physics and Astronomy at U C Irvine. For a decade I have been active in learning about energy and the environment, and in lecturing and attending classes at the Osher Lifelong Learning Institute (OLLI) at UC Irvine.
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