IHME Projects 62,000 Lives Savable by Masking by February 1

IHME Projects 62,000 Lives Savable by Masking by February 1.

The October 22 IHME projections lower the February 1 death toll by 5,000, but decrease the lives savable by full masking by 11,000, compared to last week’s projection.

The February 1 projection of lives lost to the Coronavirus in the US is 385,611, with the current masking rate of 69%.  If we move to 95% masking now, the toll will be lowered to 322,836, a saving of 62,775 lives.  

From IHME, current Oct. 22 lives lost are 221,047, meaning that there are 164,564 more deaths to go until February 1.  The 62,775 lives savable are 38.1% of those deaths.

Daily deaths on February 1 are projected at 2,148, which could be reduced to 1,299 deaths per day with 95% masking.  This is a reduction to 60.5% of projected deaths per day.

Estimated Infections per day for October 22nd are 131,488.  This could be reduced to 126,175 with 95% masking.  Presently, about 50,000 cases per day are being confirmed by testing.  The ratio of Estimated to Confirmed is 2.6.

In a graph, about 24% of infections are being confirmed in the US, differing from above.  In the same graph, Germany has been confirming about 48% of their cases.

We can also use the IHME to tally the Coronavirus toll at the end of the present Presidential term on January 20. 

On January 20, there are projected to be 359,494 deaths, which could be reduced to 207,494 with 95% masking, saving 52,000 lives from now.  On October 22nd, IHME has 221,047 current deaths, so there are 138,447 to go.  The 52,000 Savable by more masking is 37.6% of the projected future deaths.

On January 20, there are projected to be 2,192 daily deaths, which can be reduced to 1,253 or 57% with 95% masking.

We note that Biden and CNN have been using the projections to February 28 that appeared in a newly published paper by IHME, but which was the projection on September 23, when US masking was taken at 49%.  Once IHME switched to Facebook survey data, masking changed to 69%, and the projected deaths were greatly reduced.

The IHME has complained that the CDC is hiding a lot of State and local data, which would be very useful.  They can’t say it, but I can:  this is part of hiding the dire situation by the current Administration.

The IHME is working on including vaccines.  We can only hope that they arrive soon, are distributed to the most needful, and that the government picks up the cost.  That should greatly reduce deaths, as long as people still keep some of the social distancing and mask wearing.

About Dennis SILVERMAN

I am a retired Professor of Physics and Astronomy at U C Irvine. For a decade I have been active in learning about energy and the environment, and in lecturing and attending classes at the Osher Lifelong Learning Institute (OLLI) at UC Irvine.
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