IHME Projections to February 1 for California, Texas, Florida, New York, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia

October 22nd IHME Projections for California, Texas, Florida,  New York, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Ohio, and North Carolina

We cover the four largest states, which include two swing states, and then six other swing states.

California

IHME projections for total California Coronavirus deaths by February 1 are 31,798, a drop of about 4,000 from last week’s projection.  With 95% masking, that can be reduced to 25,377, saving 6,421 lives.

With present California Coronavirus deaths at 17,194, that leaves 14,604 to go.  Those that can be saved by more masking are 44.0% of that, almost half.  California presently has 75% masking.  Future deaths are 85% of present deaths.

California currently has Estimated Infections of 7,266 per day, and confirmed cases per day fluctuate around 3,500.  The ratio of Estimated to Confirmed is about 2.1.

Texas

For February 1, projections are 30,610 deaths, but 24,120 with 95% masking, saving 6,490 lives.  With 17,335 present cases, that is 13,275 cases to go.  The saved lives are 49% of those yet to be lost.  Currently, 69% of Texas wears masks, same as the national average.  Future deaths are 77% of current deaths.

Current Estimated Infections per day are 13,994.  Dividing by about 4,000 a day Confirmed, gives a 3.5 ratio.

Projected deaths per day are 199, which can be lowered to 79 with 95% masking, saving 120 per day, or 60%.

Florida

For February 1, projected deaths are 29,002, with 26,042 with 95% masking, saving 2,960 lives.  Current masking is 66%.  Current deaths are 16,544, so there are 12,458 more to go.  With more masking, 24% can be saved.  The projected deaths to February 1 are an increase of 75% over current deaths.

Estimated infections per day are currently 16,034.  Compared to about 3,000 confirmed infections per day, gives a ratio of 5.3.

New York

New York had already emerged from its large number of current deaths of 33,490.  Their projected deaths by February 1 are 38,591.  That will give them 5,101 to go, in the next 100 days, for an average of 51 a day.  They currently have 77% masking.  With 95% masking they will have 35,949 deaths, saving 2,647, or 52%.

Daily deaths on February 1 are projected to be 156, but they can be reduced to 63 with 95% masking, or only 40%.

Their current Estimated Infections per day are 1,344, but with the Confirmed cases per day being around, 1,500, the ratio must be about 1.0.

Pennsylvania

Projected deaths are 17,420, but 14,399 with 95% masking, saving 3,021 lives.  Current deaths are 8,599, giving 8,821 to go by February 1.  So savable lives are 34% of future losses.  Current masking is 67%.  Future deaths are 103% of current ones.

Current Estimated Infections per day are 4,095, with Confirmed ones about 1,400, giving a ratio of 2.9.

Michigan

February 1 projected deaths are 13,505, which can be reduced to 12,133, saving 1,372 lives.  Current deaths are 7,442, leaving 6,063 to go.  So 23% can be saved by 95% masking.  This is rather small considering that they are at 71% masking.  The future deaths are 81% of current deaths.

Current Estimated Infections per day are 4,184, with daily Confirmed cases about 2,500, giving a ratio of 1.7.

Wisconsin

Projected deaths are 6,272, with 95% masking reducing these to 4,983, saving 1,289 lives.  With current deaths at 1,686, this is 4,586 deaths to go.  So savable deaths by more masking are 28% of future deaths.  Future deaths are 172% of current deaths.  Current masking is 67%.

Current Estimated Infections per day are 3,805, but Confirmed cases per day have jumped from 2,500 to 7,500, so one can’t really get a ratio here.

Georgia

February 1 projections of deaths are 13,456, which can be lowered to 10,585 with 95% masking, saving 2,871 lives.  Current deaths are 7,769, giving 5,687 future deaths.  So savable lives are 51% of projections.  Future deaths are 73% of present deaths.

Current Estimated infections per day are 6,399, and Confirmed ones are about 1,250, giving a ratio of 5.1. 

Ohio

February 1 projected deaths are 10,671, but with 95% masking could be reduced to 7,364, saving 3,307 lives.  Current deaths are 5,308, meaning 5,363 are still to come.  The lives saved are 62% of future deaths.  Ohio is currently 67% masking.  Future deaths are 101% larger than current deaths.

On February 1, daily deaths of 93 could be cut down to 34, cutting the death rate to 37%.

Current Estimated Daily Infections are 2,547, with about 1,800 being confirmed, giving a ratio of 1.4.

North Carolina

February 1 projected deaths are 9,176, which can be reduced to 6,768 by 95% masking, saving 2,408 lives.   Current deaths are 4,084, so there are still 5,091 to go.  Lives saved would be 47% of those.  The deaths to go are 125% of current deaths.  Current masking is 69%.

The February 1 death rate is projected at 78 per day, which can be cut in half to 40 per day by 95% masking.

Current estimated daily infections are 4,006 per day, while current confirmed cases are around 2,000 per day, giving a ratio of 2.0.

Lives Saved in the States Covered Above

The US total lives saved by 95% masking is 62,775, in an earlier article.

The most populous four states:  CA, TX, FL, and NY total 18,513 lives saved, or 29.5% of the total.

The next 5 states considered above total another 11,397 lives saved, or 11.3% of the total.

All 9 states in this article sum to 29,910 lives saved, or 47.6% or almost half of all lives saved.

Future Percent Infected Per State:

As of February 1, the Percent Infected per state as given by an IHME map will be:

CA:  10.5-13.4%,

TX:   19.5-22.4%,

FL:   16.5-19.4%,

NY:   22.5-25.4%,

PA:    13.5-16.4%,

MI:    16.5-19.4%,

WI:    16.5-19.4%,

GA:    22.5-25.4%,

OH:    10.5-13.4%,

NC:    13.5-16.4%.

About Dennis SILVERMAN

I am a retired Professor of Physics and Astronomy at U C Irvine. For a decade I have been active in learning about energy and the environment, and in lecturing and attending classes at the Osher Lifelong Learning Institute (OLLI) at UC Irvine.
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