IHME Projections for February 1 for California, Texas, Florida and Swing States
We discuss the IHME projections from October 29 for February 1 for swing states.
A short summary of results of daily deaths on February 1, which are projected at 2,228 per day for the US as a whole. The top three population states, California, Texas and Florida add up to 655 projected deaths per day, or 29% of the total. Texas and Florida are swing states. The next six swing states below add up to 437 projected deaths per day or 20%. The total of both gives 1,092, or a half or 49% of the projected deaths per day.
California
The numbers below for California are exactly the same as last week. I wrote them an email about this.
The projections are 31,798 deaths with present 70% masking, which can be reduced to 25,377 with 95% masking, saving 6,421 lives. Current deaths are 17,647, giving 14,151 to go. So the 6,421 lives saved are 45% of those to go.
Projected daily deaths to February 1 are 343 per day, which can be reduced to 153 by 95% masking. The 189 lives saved a day are 55% of the projected losses.
The current estimated daily cases are 7,946, with roughly 3,500 a day confirmed by testing. This gives a ratio of 2.3 times as many cases as those confirmed.
Texas
The projected deaths to February 1 are 32,175, but with 95% masking are 26,117, showing 6,058 lives can be saved. This is about the same lives savable as last week. Current deaths are 17,864, so there are 14,311 to go. The savable lives are 42% of those to go. Current masking is 67%.
Deaths per day are projected to be 186, which can be reduced to 105, saving 81 per day. This is 43% of the 186.
Current estimated infections per day is 16,951, while confirmed ones are about 5,000 a day. This gives a ratio of 3.4.
Florida
The projected deaths to February 1 are 25,948, which can be lowered to 22,030 with 95% masking, saving 3,918 lives. With 16,869 current deaths, there will be 9,079 more to go. The 3,918 lives savable are 43% of that. The lives savable are a jump of about a thousand over last week’s projection.
Deaths per day are projected to 126, which can be reduced to 55 with 95% masking, saving 71 a day. The 55 is 44% of those projected.
Current estimated infections per day are 8,435, and confirmed are around 3,000. The ratio is 2.8.
Pennsylvania
Projected deaths to February 1 are 18,385. With 95% masking, this can be reduced to 14,564, saving 3,821 lives. Current deaths are 8,771, showing that there are 9,614 more to go. So masking saves 40% of those lives. There are 110% more lives to lose by February 1. Current masking is 59%.
Deaths per day on February 1 are 126, with 93 by full masking, saving 33 lives per day, which is 26%.
Current estimated infections per day are 4,457. Confirmed cases are about 1,800 per day, giving a ratio of estimated to confirmed of 2.5.
Michigan
Projected deaths to February 1 are 14,180, which is lowered to 13,086 with 95% masking, saving 1,094 lives. With 7,718 lives already lost, this is an increase of 84% with 6,462 new deaths. The lives savable are 17% of the new deaths. Current masking is at 72%.
Projected deaths on February 1 are 47 per day, but 5 a day are savable, which is 11%.
Current estimated daily infections are 7,137, with around 2,750 a day confirmed, giving a ratio of 2.6.
Georgia
Projected deaths to February 1 are 14,027, which can be reduced to 11,339 by 95% masking, saving 2,688 lives. With current deaths at 8,007, there are 6,020 to go, or an additional 75%. Lives savable are 45% of those to go. Current masking is 56%.
Daily deaths on February 1 are projected as 65, and 33 by full masking, saving 32 a day, or 49%.
Current estimated daily infections are 8,330, while about 1,250 a day are confirmed, giving a ratio of 6.7.
North Carolina
Projected deaths to February 1 are 12,219, which can be reduced to 9,790 with 95% masking, saving 2,429 lives. Currently there are 4,382 Coronavirus deaths, so there are 7,837 to go, which will almost triple the number, or increase it by 179%. The 2,429 savable lives are 31% of future deaths. Current masking is 63%.
Daily deaths on February 1 will be 84, which can be reduced to 64 with 95% masking, saving 20 a day, or 24%.
Current estimated daily infections are 9,534, and daily confirmed are around 2,000, giving a ratio of 4.8.
Ohio
Projected deaths to February 1 are 12,095, but reducible to 9,520 with 95% masking, saving 2,575. With current deaths at 5,306, the increase in deaths will be 128%. The lives savable by masking are 38% of the increase. Current masking is 62%.
Daily deaths on February 1 are projected to be 78, which can be reduced to 44 by full masking, saving 34 a day, or 44%.
Current daily estimated infections are 5,437, with about 2,400 observed, giving a ratio of 2.3.
Arizona
The projection for February 1 is 9,151 deaths, which can be lowered to 8,006 by 95% masking, saving 1,145 lives. Current deaths are 5,983, so there are 3,168 to go, which is an addition of 53%. Savable lives are 36% of those projected. Current masking is 66%.
Daily deaths on February 1 are 37, which can be reduced to 20 with 95% masking, saving 17 a day or 46%.
Current estimated infections are 7,503, whereas about 1,000 are confirmed, giving a ratio of 7.5.
Wisconsin
Projected deaths to February 1 are 6,481, which can be lowered to 5,117 by 95% masking, saving 1,364 lives. Current deaths are 1,901, so 4,580 are to go. This is a very large 241% to go. The 1,364 are the 30% of lives which can be saved. Current masking is 64%.
Daily deaths on February 1 are projected to be 42, which can be reduced to 24 with more masking, saving 18 a day, or 43%.
Current Estimated infections are 6,596 per day, and confirmed ones are about 3,500 a day, giving a ratio of 1.9.
