Coronavirus Infection Rates in States on November 9 and March 1 in the IHME Model
The IHME model contains daily infection rates for the Coronavirus, as opposed to the smaller number detected by testing. They then sum these to get the total number of people who have been infected per state up to now (Nov. 9), and to the end of the current projections on March 1.
We start with a table for the states covered in previous articles, starting with the four largest states: California, Texas, Florida, and New York. We then add the central political battleground for the Senate of Georgia. We relabel the intervals in the conventional way. We then add full US State maps for November 9 and March 1.
| State | Infections by Nov. 9 | Infections by March 1 |
| California | 7.5-10% | 10-15% |
| Texas | 15-17.5% | 25-30 |
| Florida | 10-12.5% | 10-15% |
| New York | 20-22.5% | 30-35% |
| Georgia | 15-17.5% | 25-30% |
Total Infection Percentage of States on November 9 in the IHME Model
New Jersey is the most infected at greater than 25%. Next, at 22.5-25% are New York, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Louisiana, and Mississippi. Between 15-17.5% are Arizona, Texas, South Dakota, Georgia, and Connecticut.
Projected Percentage Infected By State for March 1 in the IHME Model
The three states projected with greater than 35% infected on March 1 are North Dakota, Arizona, and New Mexico. The next infected states with 30-35% are the states where the first serious outbreak occurred, New York, New Jersey, and Massachusetts, along with Louisiana and Mississippi.
The states with the least infections on March 1 with less than 5% are Maine, Vermont, and Hawaii. The states with 5-10% infections on March 1 are Virginia and Alaska. At the 10-15% infection rate are California, Florida, Wyoming, and New Hampshire.
