US Coronavirus Deaths to March 1 Increased to 471,000 in IHME

US Coronavirus Deaths to March 1 Increased to 471,000 in IHME.

The November 19 edition of the IHME Coronavirus model has projected deaths to March 1 of almost 471,000, which is 32,000 more than last week’s projection.   The projection to the end of this Presidential term on January 20 is about 387,000, which has gained 27,000 over last week’s projection.  Lives savable by 95% masking on January 20 is about 36,000, which is the same as last week.  Present national masking is 68%.

The projected deaths by March 1 are 470,974, which can be reduced to 405,984, by using 95% masking, which we call full masking.  This would save 64,990 lives.  Present deaths in the model are 250,344, so there are 220,630 more to go.  The savable lives are 29.5% of the ones to go.  The deaths by March 1 are 88% greater than the present deaths.

The projected deaths to Inauguration Day are 387,471, which can be reduced to 351,245 with full masking, saving 36,226 lives.  Future deaths to January 20 are 137,127, so lives saved could be 26.4% of future deaths.  The number dead by January 20 is 55% greater than present deaths.

Daily deaths on March 1 are declining from a January peak, and are 1,696, which can be reduced to 1,193 by full masking, saving 503 a day, or 30%.  Current deaths per day in the model are 1,308, so they will be 388 higher on March 1.

Daily deaths on January 20 are much higher at 2,455, which can be reduced to 1,512 with full masking, saving 943 a day, or 38%.

Current infections per day in the model are 369,286, whereas confirmed cases have increased rapidly to 160,000, giving a ratio of 2.3.

Hospitalization nationally are 158,158 on January 20, having passed the peak on January 11 of 161,885.  These are double the current hospitalization of around 80,000.

Forty two states will reach high or extreme stress on hospital beds, and forty two will reach that on ICUs.

The infection fatality rate varies with location by obesity and age distribution.  It has declined by 30% as treatments have gotten better.  I think I saw that the age distributed average in their model was 0.6%.

Since there are 330 million Americans, when we reach 1 per thousand deaths, that will be 330,000.  In this week’s model, that will occur on December 29, or essentially New Years.  It’s hard to remember or attach a significance to each new “milestone”.  But that one may count.

People are supposed to have around 150 people in their social groups.  We are now at 12 million confirmed cases, the most of any country.  That is one out of every 330/12 = 27.5 or 28 Americans.  Multiply 150 x 1/28 = 5.4.  So each American actually knows 5 to 6 people who have been confirmed infected.  If they knew this, it might help enforce the need for masks, and the realization that the virus is a real problem.

About Dennis SILVERMAN

I am a retired Professor of Physics and Astronomy at U C Irvine. For two decades I have been active in learning about energy and the environment, and in reporting on those topics for a decade. For the last four years I have added science policy. Lately, I have been reporting on the Covid-19 pandemic of our times.
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