California Deaths to March 1 increase to 37,000 in IHME Model
California death projections to March 1 in the IHME model increased by around 10,000 in the November 19 output over last week’s. The number savable by 95% or full masking is about 7,000, or 6,877, which is 62% greater than the 4,253 estimated savable last week.
There are 37,062 projected deaths to March 1, which can be reduced to 30,185 deaths with full masking, saving 6,877 lives. Present deaths are 18,642, giving 18,420 to go, or 99% more. Savable lives are 37% of those to go.
Daily deaths are 57 now, but will increase to 303 a day on March 1, a 5.3 fold increase. With full masking, these could be reduced to 188 a day, saving 115 lives a day, or 38%. The IHME discussion for California says that this will peak at 440 per day on March 12, beyond the standard projection. With a California population of 40 million, the peak on March 12 will reach 11 per million per day.
The infections per day in the IHME model for California peak on February 5, at 59,051, which can be reduced to 34,426 a day with full masking, saving 24,625 lives a day, or 42%. Currently there are about 14,862 infections a day in the model, so peak infections per day will be four times as many. In a graph, only 28% of California cases are being detected by tests. In their graph of daily confirmed deaths, there are around 5,300 in November, but with the rapid increase, there are now about 9,000 a day.
California hospital beds are 26,654, and the peak need on February 23 almost fills those at 25,943. Since many beds are needed for other illnesses, this is a hazardous situation.
