Georgia is Sixth in Cases with Increasing Projections of Deaths
Georgia is approaching a half a million confirmed Coronavirus cases, with a population of 10.6 million. The number of Covid-19 deaths is over 9,000, and is projected by IHME to increase by 80% by March 1. Masking in Georgia is at 58%.
The IHME projection for deaths by March 1 is 16,479, which has increased by about 3,000 from last week’s projection. With full (95%) masking, March 1 could be reduced to 14,351, saving 2,128 lives. For some reason, this is reduced from 2,853 savable lives last week.
Present deaths in the model are 9,262, so there are 7,217 more to go by March 1. The 2,853 savable are 29.5% of these. The March 1 deaths are 78% greater than present deaths.
Daily deaths are projected to peak around December 19, at 101, which could be reduced to 65 a day, saving 36 a day or 36%. With full masking, deaths would peak around December 6 at 81 per day. Current deaths are at 54 or day, so at peak, the deaths will be an increase of 87% over the present ones.
Confirmed daily cases are 3,300 in a seven day average. However, in the IHME model, on November 21, estimated daily infections are 19,526, a factor of 6 greater. The daily estimated infections are projected to peak around December 2, at 21,568 a day, which could soon be reduced to 13,466 a day with full masking, leaving 8,102 uninfected, saving 38% of infections.
The IHME writeup for Georgia says that as of November 16, 19% in the state were infected. Covid-19 is the number one cause of death in the state. The death rate per million is 4-5. From a graph, only 20% of daily cases are detected, which agrees with the factor of 6 in the previous paragraph. On March 1, 30-35% of the population of Georgia will be infected. Daily, there are only 200 tests per 100,000 of population. The population of Georgia is 10.6 million, so that is about 20,000 tests per day.
Incidentally, Georgia Senator Kelly Loeffler tested positive for the Coronavirus, after a day of campaigning with Vice President Mike Pence. A second test was inconclusive, but she is quarantining. She does wear masks. As the richest member of Congress, she should get the best medical care available, and we wish her well.
