US IHME Projections for Covid-19 Daily Deaths Show Drops Starting in Three Weeks
While we are arguing about Biden’s 100 million Coronavirus vaccine doses by May 1, the IHME has increased its estimate to 157 million Americans completely vaccinated by May 1, saving 43,000 American lives. A vaccination takes two doses for the present Pfizer, Moderna and AstraZeneca vaccines. The IHME is pessimistic of reaching herd immunity this year, with a Facebook survey showing only 51% accepting vaccinations, 26% unsure, leaving 23% rejecting vaccinations. An MIT survey shows 65% would be vaccinated, 19% don’t know, and 15% would not be vaccinated. (I finally saw an expert say that even with herd immunity, people will still get infected, but more at a constant rate rather than an exponential rate.)
There are now 416,000 US Covid-19 deaths, and IHME projects 569,000 deaths by May 1, or an extra 168,000 from the 401,000 on January 19, which is 42% more deaths. The May 1 projection is almost the same as last week’s projection. Universal masking to 95%, up from the present 76%, would save 22,000 lives by May 1, an additional half of those saved by vaccinations, or 5.5% of present deaths, and 13% of future deaths to May 1.
Daily infections have already started falling, and deaths lag about three weeks. The graph of daily deaths, using the Current Projection (brown curve), shown below, fall off steeply as of mid February. Now they are about 3,200 per day, and will be: 3,200 on Feb. 1; 1,800 a day on March 1; 740 on April 1; and 300 on May 1.
The US has reached 25 million detected cases, and averaged 211,600 detected cases per day last week. The model shows that as of January 19, 17% of Americans were infected, or 56 million, or 2.24 times the detected cases. The estimated infected is now determined much more carefully in three different ways, which are then combined.
The IHME projections do not include the new variants B.1.1.7 from the UK, or the B.1.351 from South Africa. The UK one is considered as possibly 30-50% more infective and could dominate the US by March. It also may increase mortality by 30%.
From the IHME perspective: “In addition, we do not have evidence on how much vaccinations stop transmission as opposed to preventing severe disease and death.” This means that the vaccinated should still wear masks, social distance, and avoid large groups, for the sake of others. A survey shows that 25% of those vaccinated may not follow this.
As of May 1, 160 million will be considered immune, or about 50% of the US population. Herd immunity is considered from 70% to 85%, so we have to vaccinate to that extent, or we will have to reimpose restrictions in the fall and winter.
The weekly mortality of Covid 19 is now leading and equal to that of the next four causes of deaths in the US. Their somewhat ambiguous graph of cases by age show that about 85% of Covid-19 deaths occur among those age 65 and over.
In hospital resources, Covid-19 beds have peaked at 139,000 in the model, from January 23 to February 3, and then decline. They passed 120,000 on December 31, and will stay above that until February 16.
ICU beds for Covid-19 plateau at 32,000 or 23% of beds, from January 20 to February 6. ICUs will reduce to: 19,000 by March 1; 7,600 by April 1; and 3,000 on May 1.
Ventilators peak at 17,000 about February 5, and reduce to: 10,000 on March 1; 4,000 on April 1; and 1,600 on May 1.
Estimated daily infections in the IHME model reached 369,000 on January 18, and will reduce to: 273,000 on February 1; 162,000 on March 1; 77,000 on April 1; and 28,000 on May 1.
