Climate Lab’s Projections of the World Future Temperature Maps

Climate Lab’s Projections of the World Future Temperature Maps

We present their graphs of the World future temperature maps for the average of June/July/August, under the “business as usual” or no climate mitigation scenario.  This is called RCP 8.5, where in 2100, the average climate forcing of greenhouse gases and other anthropogenic causes is 8.5 W/m^2 above pre-industrial times.  Currently, we are about 2 for this year.  The previous projections which we presented were for an estimate of obeying the present initial Paris Agreement emissions, which would give us RCP 4.5 in 2100.  These projections are from the Climate Impact Lab at impactlab.org  

First, we have the past 20 year average of World temperatures from 1986 to 2005.  The equator runs through the Western bulge of South America.

We next have the 20 year average projection from 2020 to 2039.

 

The mid-century projection of World temperature averages runs from 2040-2059.

 

 

 

Finally, the end of century projection is the twenty year average from 2080-2099.

 

We see that compared to the top map, the historical record, that the bluish areas in Southern South America, Canada, and Siberia are turning warmer.  The initial orange parts of North America, Equatorial South America, Africa, and India will turn redder.  The bluish areas in South America are the Andes, and in Asia are the Himalayas.

 

 

 

 

Posted in 2018 Global Climate Analysis, Climate Change, Climate Education, Climate Science | Leave a comment

Climate Impact Lab’s Projections of US Future Temperature Maps

Climate Impact Lab’s Projections of US Future Temperature Maps

We present their graphs of the US future temperature maps for the average of June/July/August, under the “business as usual” or no climate mitigation scenario.  This is called RCP 8.5, where in 2100, the average climate forcing of greenhouse gases and other anthropogenic causes is 8.5 W/m^2 above pre-industrial times.  Currently, we are about 2 for this year.  The previous projections which we presented were for an estimate of obeying the present initial Paris Agreement emissions, which would give us RCP 4.5 in 2100.  These projections are from the Climate Impact Lab at impactlab.org

The first US map is for the preceding recent 30 year period 1981-2010.

 

The next is for the next twenty years, 2020-2039.  

 

Then there is the Mid-Century twenty year period 2040-2059.  

 

Finally, there is the twenty year end century period for 2080-2099.

We note that coastal areas, and particularly the West Coast, with its cloudy mornings June Gloom, are spared some of the the heating.  The Northern states are mild, and the Rockies and Sierras are cooler, still.  But, the snow occurring and holding seasons will shorten, and produce water shortages.

 

Posted in 2018 Global Climate Analysis, Climate Change, Climate Education, Climate Science | Leave a comment

Climate Discussions at CA State Senator John Moorlach’s Sacramento Office

Climate Discussions at CA State Senator John Moorlach’s, CA 37th District, Office in Sacramento

Joan and I had a very pleasant conversation in State Senator John Moorlach’s office about climate matters, with his environmental assistant Megan A. DeSousa.  She is a recent graduate of UC Irvine in Business.  Senator Moorlach had already returned home as the Senate session had ended for the summer.

Her office is proposing Senate Bill 535 on Tracking Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Wildfires.  This would include pollutants from wildfires in the AQMD pollution counts, on a three year basis.  This would allow California gas tax funds to go to fire mitigation projects.  Among these would be funds to cover perhaps half of the cost of under-grounding utilities along Laguna Canyon Road.  That is where the 1993 fire started that took almost all houses along Skyline Drive on Mystic Hills.  We also discussed the Paradise fire and the problems of evacuation along one lane roads in each direction.  Wildfires also emit black carbon, which is dangerous to breathe.  Part of the wildfire problem results from logging, and then replanting at a much higher density than the original forests were.    This also produces a ground level growth that can propagate its own fires.

I informed her of my blog, and recent treatment of temperature rises locally, in the US, and globally.  I also talked about my articles on sea level rise, which concerns Sen. Moorlach’s coastal cities of Huntington Beach, Newport Beach, and Balboa Island.  We also mentioned the possible half-a-billion dollar cost of protecting the Newport Bay islands and the Newport Peninsula from sea-level-rise over the rest of the century.

We found Megan quite receptive and informed about environmental concerns, and recommend that others contact her and Senator Moorlach’s office (moorlach.cssrc.us) about such matters.  They have their bills accessible from their website.  

Posted in Affairs of State, California Flood Maps, California Housing Fires, Carbon Tax, Climate Change, Climate Science, Coastal Flooding, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Sea Level Rise | Leave a comment

Climate Hot, Hot, Hots

Climate Hot, Hot, Hots

Usually, my articles of shorts are called Shorts, but not this record hot July.  This month is the hottest month EVER worldwide!  The last hottest month was in July, 2017.  Today, it will be 99º F in Sacramento, on the last day of our vacation here.  This weekend, it will be 105º and 106º here.

In the Miracle category, four leading automakers have made a deal with California to almost meet the Obama standard of 52.5 mpg by 2025.  The new deal will reach 51 mpg by 2026.  The proposed Trump freeze would have settled at only 37 mpg, and stopped states from setting their own standards.  The four automakers so far are Ford, Honda, Volkswagen Group of America, and BMW of North America, which together make up 30% of the US market.  Other automakers are expected to join.  Thirteen other states also follow the California standards.  This is from a NY Times article by Coral Davenport and Hiroko Tabuchi.  Oddly, when this was worked out yesterday, I was touring the Sacramento Auto Museum, and finding out that the enormous old cars got about 10 mpg.  They also had a display of European mini-cars.  Earlier in the day we toured the Rail Museum.

Yesterday, Paris reached its highest temperature ever, of 108.6º F (42.6º C).  This broke the old record set in 1947.  (“Ah yes, I remember it well”, from the film Gigi, which I ushered on Hollywood Blvd. in high school.)  In the Netherlands it exceeded 104º F, and in Germany it hit 106.7º F, and Brussels 105º F.  Cambridge, England, had 100.5 ºF.  The hottest summers in Europe have all come in the last 17 years.  This is from a NY Times article by Iliana Magra and Constant Méheut.

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Thank You, Donald, for our Free Legal Education

Thank you, Donald, for our Free Legal Education

Even though President Barack Obama had been a law Professor at the University of Chicago, and the first black President of the Harvard Law Review, there was very little motivation to learn about the Constitution and the Law from his Presidency.  

Donald Trump, on the other hand, has seemingly challenged all parts of the Constitution, the Ten Commandments, Supreme Court precedents, the separation of powers, the oversight powers of Congress, Supreme Court and Federal judicial appointments, nepotism, the requirement of the best science in regulations, foreign interference in our elections, and we could go on for hours.  MSNBC has become a 24 hour law school, and CNN has many hours a day devoted to Constitutional and administrative law.  Our Osher Lifelong Learning Institute classes on Supreme Court cases are always overbooked, and continually scheduled.  The UCI Law School has scheduled various public colloquia on relevant law subjects.  

Update:  Since I mentioned the Ten Commandments above, and Trump has a Trump Tower in Las Vegas, I can’t withhold mentioning that the City is currently at the mercy of a Plague of Locusts.

While Law Schools have highly competent professors, no law school could provide the highly experienced lawyers from past administrations and investigations which appear on the legal parts of the TV shows or press articles.  Professors also could not present all of the past historical tapes of investigations which the TV networks have the staff and expertise to present in their documentary segments.  The networks also have been able to present comparisons between what Trump claims he or others have said, and what they are on tape as actually saying.

With our Chancellor, Howard Gillman, and the first head of our law school, Erwin Chemerinsky, they have formed a group backing the Freedom of Speech, which they have also written a book about.  They fully back the orderly challenge of presenting even radical conservative viewpoints, to be debated and countered fairly, as the President and media conservatives have been demanding, and pretending are abridged.  These same conservatives, on the other hand, are trying to suppress liberal free speech, by threatening federal funds to the universities, political science funding, and climate science funding.

I had never read the Constitution, and now only when daily disputes come up.  I probably only read the Declaration of Independence when I was in grade school.  Yet now I cite these in articles on Trump’s challenging actions.  Only rarely have Presidents challenged any of these norms, yet now they are a daily and repeated occurrence.  It’s almost as if the dictator Vladimir Putin had become our President, and acted as he daily does in Russia.  This includes indicting and disqualifying political appointees, and arresting them before or after the election, even when they are beaten.

No US President has admired dictators who make themselves President for Life, (as China’s Xi Jin Ping has done), or said that they should have more than the allowed two terms, or that their four year term should be extended to six years (as Trump’s buddy Putin gets).  Since Mueller and the Congress have emphasized that Trump could be charged once he is out of office,, Trump clearly wants to serve out the rest of his life.

I imagine that this legal and Constitutional exposure has motivated many young students to plan on law careers.  Unfortunately, even when Trump’s four, six year terms are over, the norms that he has set will still involve continued challenges.  I have no way to predict whether Trump will rename the office as “Supreme Leader”, although he describes his presidency as the best ever, on any chance he gets.

Besides the tests of the Constitution during his term, Trump has also given us the exceptional circumstances of working throughout his campaign to establish collusion with Russia.  This even included the public quest starting with “Russia, if you are listening” request for Secretary Clinton’s erased personal emails.  Russia tried to hack her system the same day.  There were 126 such contacts with Russians.  It was well established by Mueller that Russia not only hacked the DNC, the DNCC, and Clinton’s campaign Chairman Jon Podesta.  These were released by Wikileaks.  Rather than reject this foreign influence, Trump continually paradises Wikileaks.  No other Presidential candidate has worked to provide such a legal example for our legal education.  

Furthermore, when Special Counsel Mueller was appointed, Trump exercised all possible ways (10 at least) to obstruct the investigation, making a maximal legal example.  Thanks for all the hard work, Donald.  Trump has gone to two Attorney Generals in his efforts, several White House lawyers, his private lawyer, and two heads of the FBI in constructing his remarkable law cases.    We don’t yet know how many of Trump’s over 10,000 lies are part of the discussion of this investigation and related cases.

Trump has at least added two classes to the Law School curriculum, based on each of the two volumes of the Mueller report.  There probably already were courses on conflicts of interest by appointing Cabinet members and the 5,000 political appointees from industries which are being regulated, or their lobbyists.  That is standard practice for past Republican administrations.  There could be a new course on the dismantling of required science consulting committees for agencies to receive the best science in their regulations. 

In international law, the whole question of what does it mean when the US signs a Treaty will be raised.  These are seldom voted on by the Senate.  The amazing powers of this President in using nuclear weapons, in breaking treaties, in imposing tariffs, in interfering with immigration laws, in  interfering in justice department investigations or influencing trials and witnesses, in ordering the justice department to investigate political opponents, in threatening other countries, etc., all have to be limited and proscribed by Congress.  These abuses of powers far exceed the powers of Marvel’s Justice League to combat, even as a full team.  This will take decades to achieve, but requires a responsible electorate to do so.

The 25th Amendment provides for the Vice President and Cabinet to temporarily remove a President from office.  But if you have a totally compliant VP who knows that his action will end his political career, that Amendment becomes ineffective.  Similarly, the Congress seems incapable of acting to remove an Attorney General who is totally protective and compliant to the President’s orders, as the President has the gall to openly give such orders.  The actual symbol of Justice wearing a blindfold and holding the scales of unweighted balance, is totally undermined today.

While I can’t cover the Mueller hearings in detail, it is clear that all of the Republicans want to keep pursuing the investigation by looking at the initial sources, and acting ad hominem against the investigators.  This is also at the behest of President Trump, and his dependent Attorney General Barr.  A public relations political advisor would say that now that you have spent a half year saying no collusion, no obstruction, you can triumphantly drop the investigation.    However, Trump has spent his life writing “The Art of Retaliation”, and will never drop this.  In the end, he has said that the problems started with President Obama and Secretary Clinton.  So, we have another year and a half of more free law courses.  The Bar could design an exam to give a degree in Modern Constitutional Law to those who have diligently followed all of the cases started by the Trump campaign and Presidential term.

Posted in Donald Trump | Leave a comment

US and Worldwide Increases in Present and Future 90º F Days

One key way to measure the danger of extreme temperatures is to count the number of days in a year when the temperature reaches 90º F or higher.  The Climate Impact Lab (impactlab.org) did this for the New York Times.  They made a database that for major cities would show the yearly count of the number of days in which 90º F was reached.  The record starts in 1960 and runs until 2017.  Then they projected this for the cities until 2089, or essentially, the end of this century.  The Climate Impact Lab researches many impacts of Climate Change, and is a collaboration of UC Berkeley, the Energy Policy Institute of the University of Chicago (EPIC), the Rhodium Group, and the Rutgers University Institute of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences.

They assume that in the future that the cuts in greenhouse gas emissions according to the Paris Accords will be met.  These accords are not often being met, and are insufficient anyway, and will be increased shortly.  Only about half of the US is committed to meeting the accords.  Nationally, the Trump Administration is doing everything that it can to reverse the commitments of the Obama Administration, as well as planning to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement as soon as possible, in November, 2020.  The US is the second largest emitter of Greenhouse Gases at about 10% of the world total, behind China, at about 20%.

In this article we show the record and projected high temperature counts for several US and World Cities.  We also show the world maps, where the largest increases in count are for the Southern Hemisphere, and the Southern cities of the Northern Hemisphere.  Since the record does not go back to my actual birthday, I entered a birthday as 1990 in the graphs, midway between 1960 and the present.  Here is the New York Times link.  I will someday have more graphs on my Flickr account, when some mischegas gets straightened out.  Below is the record and projection for 90º days for Los Angeles, California.

The Los Angeles record of 90º F days per year starts in 1960 with about 56. By 2017 it was 67 days.  In 2050 it centers about 85 days, and in 2089 it reaches 94 days/year.  In the latter day, the error about 94 ranged from 86 to 103 days/year.  In 2089, there were a rise from 67 days in 1960 to 94 days in 2089, or a gain of 27 days/year or 40%

 

We now show three views of the world globe, from the Climate Impact Lab, with areas of increased days at 90ºF.  Very red is a remarkable increase of 8 months or more of 90º days.  At 30 days/month, it would be an increase of 240 90º days from 1960 to 2089.  Indonesia gets into dark red.  Lighter red of a 6 month or 180 days of added 90º days covers Southern China and Southern India.  

 

The next globe shows Southern Africa in regions of 6 to 8 months of increases in 90º days/year.

The last globe shows the 6 and 8 months of 90º days/year increase over the Northern half of South America.

 

 

In our coverage of individual cities, we of course have to start with the nation’s Capitol, Washington D.C.  This started with 8 90º days in 1960.  It has risen to 30 days at present.  The model has it crossing 50 days in 2050, and has it reaching 55 days in 2089, with error bars ranging from 35 to 67 days/year.

Our President’s Southern White House is near Miami, Florida.  Starting with 85 90º days in 1960, it has risen to 135 days today.  In 2089, this rises to about 165 90º days/year.  This is an increase of 80 days/year since 1960, or an increase of 94%.

Another Southern US city is Dallas, Texas.  It starts with about 98 90º days in 1960, falls to 90 days for the ‘70’s, and rises to 107 days at present.  The projected 90º days rise to 128 by 2089.  The rise of 30 days/year from 98 in 1960 is an increase of 31%.

Phoenix, Arizona, started out with 154 90º days in 1960, rising to 168 in 2017.  It is projected to about 183 days in 2089.

We now go to the Southern Hemisphere, and only give the number of 90º days projected to 2089.  In Mumbai, India, it is about 315.  In New Delhi, India, it becomes 232 90º days/year.  In Cairo, Egypt, it is 189 days/year.  In Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, it is about 135 days/year.

The projections are based on the RCP 4.5 intermediate climate forcing projections.  The use of 2089 is because the projection is taking a 21 year average around a given date.  The 2017 value includes half a projection over the next 10 years.

While this article was stimulated by the heat wave across the south and east US of last week, that has cooled off into thunderstorms.   Oddly, we decided to take our vacation in Sacramento, and are facing temperatures during the next three days of 97º, 100º, and 99º.  We’re leaving before the weekend, which will be 104º and 105º.

Posted in 2018 Global Climate Analysis, Climate Change, Climate Education, Climate Science | Leave a comment

Thank You, Space Program, for my Scientific Career

Thank You, Space Program, for my Scientific Career

While I was not an astronaut or in the Space Program, it provided guidance and support for my scientific career.  That was because of the foresight of providing a large boost in science education by Presidents Kennedy and Johnson.

I remember the Sputnik revelation in high school, which was accompanied by the foresight to fund science education to catch up with the Russians.  While a Chemistry major at UCLA, my first project was to test materials for reentry shields on capsules.  I also worked in geophysics on writing a computer program to propagate atmospheric waves.  And then writing up the equations in Schwarzschild’s text on how the sun works, although computers were far from solving them at that time.

I was fortunate enough to get to go to a NASA summer school at Columbia University of space or atmospheric science, taught by Robert Jastro.  After a few weeks of class, we were flown around to NASA facilities at Cape Canaveral and Werner Von Braun’s Redstone Arsenal.  As a maverick, I was more enticed by meeting MIT students studying General Relativity, and decided to switch to Physics, via completing my degree in Mathematics.

I was extremely fortunate to get an NSF Graduate Fellowship to pay my graduate school tuition for five years at Stanford, as well as giving me living expenses.  That was a program established by the Space Race.  In graduate school I left Gravity Theory since as it turned out, it would take 50 years to show results.  I moved into particle physics theory when it was at its most exciting, producing new results.  I got my Ph. D. At Stanford in 1968.  Today, we are celebrating the 50th anniversary of the first manned Moon landing on July 20, 1969 today.  By then I was a postdoctoral fellow at Princeton University.

I think the government might have gotten its value from my education in that I made some contributions to particle physics, but also because I taught Physics for 30 years at UC Irvine.  I still try to make contributions through teaching at lifelong learning and through my blog, having switched again, to energy and environment.  We also have NASA and its many earth-observing satellites to thank for the many climate studies, and computer simulations, from which I report on a few.

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

When Trump’s Prejudices Hit Home

When Trump’s Prejudices Hit Home

I had been holding back about Trump’s racist tweets, since they were already being condemned in all media, except Fox News, who was laughing about them, and the GOP.

But his comments today and yesterday have hit home.  Yes, I complain about Trump’s America, but that doesn’t mean that I need to leave the country of my birth.  No less than Lindsay Graham is now calling all Democrats Communists and anti-semites.  We’ve been through that several times before, with the Red Scare, and the HUAC Army-McCarthy purge of Jewish writers.  The go-back-to-where-you-came-from has also been used against all immigrants or children of immigrants, as well as Jews and Muslims.

Update:  The House has voted to Censure Trump for his statements, with only 2% of Republicans joining with Democrats.  Who knew that the phrase “go back to where you came from” is labeled as workplace harassment by the federal government?  Probably all three million trained federal employees.

“This land is your land, this land is my land, From California (me) to the New York island (Trump)”.  Just like Trump, who complains more about America than anybody else, “Make America Great Again”, I am going to stay here, and do my utmost to return America to the standards of Democracy before the Trump Regime took power.  “This land was made for you and me.”  Please, Donald, let one of your many lawyers read you the First Amendment, included in the Constitution that you swore to obey, on the Lincoln Bible.  The First Amendment ends:  “or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.”  There is no mention of leaving the US instead.

I don’t want to stoop to Trump’s level, so I will not expand on Trump’s mother being from Scotland, and therefore Trump’s responsibility to return to his half-homeland of the United Kingdom to rescue them from the problems of Brexit.  I also will not discuss that four out of Trump’s five children’s mothers were immigrants, and they could go back to the countries of their mothers to solve their problems.  Melania, our First Lady, could also go back to Slovenia to solve their problems.  Hillary Clinton pointed out that three of the attacked women were born in America, and all four were citizens.  This IS their country to try to set it right. 

I also won’t point out Trump’s misogyny in attacking women leaders, or his racism in attacking black leaders, starting with his birtherism attack on President Obama.  Having now women in Congress who are also of color, fell right into Trump’s compulsions to attack.

The other thing that hit home is that my father fled Romania/Russia and sought refuge in America.  He passed through many countries on the way here, which is now being arbitrarily banned by a rule change.  My father also became a citizen by serving in the US armed forces in World War I.  Trump has now removed that road to Citizenship, which defames all who serve this country in the military.  No need to point out that Trump has not even served in the military.

Trump revealed in his comments what he really has against AOC.  He blamed New York’s loss of the location of Amazon’s new campus solely on her shoulders, and not the people of Brooklyn.  Trump probably saw big dollar signs from the wealthier Amazonians moving into Trump Tower and playing at his golf clubs.  Remember when Presidents separated their businesses from the country’s business?

As far as the Communist charges, the only politicians that I know that have connections with Communism live in the White House.  Melania lived 18 years in Communist Yugoslavia before she could leave on her modeling career.  Trump held a beauty contest in Moscow.  Then he tried to get a Trump Tower Moscow, up until Election Day.  He has also held personal and secret meetings with Putin and Kim Jong Un.   Trump also has tariffs against $200 billion of Chinese goods, paid for by US consumers, and China now has a $60 billion tariff against US goods, paid for by US businesses, in Trump’s Tariff War against Communist China.   Trump hosted the Chinese leader at his Mar-a-Lago resort.  C’est la vie.

We don’t have time to mention all of Trump’s connections to Communist Russia.  “Russia if you are listening”.  Eric saying that most of Trump’s financing came from Russian sources.  And Trump’s refusal to accept the unanimous intelligence analysis that Russia hacked the Democrats emails in the 2016 election, and ran a social media influence campaign.

It’s odd that if you take Trump’s tweet literally for the three women who come from the US:  “they came from countries whose governments are a complete and total catastrophe, the worst, most corrupt and inept anywhere in the world (if they even have a functioning government at all)” then that actually applies literally to Trump’s own Administration.

How many times has everybody said, that if a Democratic President said the racist things that Trump has, he or she would be impeached the same day!  Instead of hiding behind the White House’s white supremacist Steve Miller, Trump’s white supremacy is now out in the open, for all of his party and backers to be embarrassed by.  Speaking out at the “Made In America” event, Trump embarrassed them, when it seemed that they applauded his racist comments.

Posted in Donald Trump | Leave a comment

Climate Change Strikes the White House, and Enhances Rain Storms

Climate Change Strikes the White House, and Enhances Rain Storms

Trump finally found out why people call Washington D.C. a swamp.  He finally found out what it really means to be an flood victim.  Trump finally had a situation where he actually had to drain a piece of the swamp, rather than just adding more alligators to it with every political appointment.  Unfortunately, Trump is probably overjoyed that the flooding was in the dungeon where he confines the press corp.  The press corp actually often floods in rain storms.  They also have to endure a flood of administrative assertions that have to be fact checked.

A lingering rain storm dumped over three inches of rain in an hour on Washington D.C, which exceeded that old record.  The storm also dumped 0.69 inches in 11 minutes at Reagan International airport.  As I recall, the land around Chesapeake Bay has actually been sinking.  Five rivers, including the Potomac, flow into the Bay.

Trump can take the long trip down to the press office, after being shown where it is, and can then do his free throws of paper towels, as he did to Puerto Rico after their hurricane.  In this case, they will be useful.

Trump always likes citing records to show that climate change is not happening.  In this case, no comment.

Besides flooding around DC, there is a storm raining hard on New Orleans, which may turn into a category 1 hurricane, named Barry.  The Mississippi is expected to reach its highest height since 1950, already high from previous storms over the country, and 8 feet above normal.  Up to two feet of rain may be possible.  Also, a possible 3-6 foot storm surge from the hurricane is possible.  This is the worst triple threat situation.  Furthermore, New Orleans closed the storm drains in case the storm surge might push unhealthy water back into the city.  The New Orleans pumps can only remove 1/2 inch of rain an hour.

Trump spent the morning retweeting charges over Hillary and Obama about Trump’s election, and spying, and emails.  Finally, he or somebody retweeted something useful about preparing for hurricane Barry.

My iRain rain map app from UC Irvine showed massive rain over Florida.  No wonder Trump was retweeting today.   It also showed a new color, pink, for rain greater than 24 inches in 72 hours, over the Gulf of Mexico near New Orleans.

While scientists cannot attribute particular storms to global warming, the atmosphere is on average 1.8º F higher since pre-industrial times.  This allows air st saturate with more moisture.  As the water vapor condenses, it gives up heat, which causes the warmer air to rise.  The rising air brings in air, which starts rotating from the Coriolis force, and makes high winds and storm surges.  So this is storm enhancement from climate change.   It’s hard to imagine that Trump’s White House science advisor, a meteorologist, hasn’t at some time explained this to him.

The New York Times reports that Dr. Patricola at Lawrence Berkeley Lab shows that climate change has warmed the Gulf waters by 0.5º C to 2.0º C, which is 0.9ºF to 3.6ºF.  This has increased the rain content of tropical storms by 9%.  For storm of 22 inches of rain before climate change, that would add another 2.0 inches of rain.  A further problem with flooding is that the ground has already been saturated with water from previous rain storms.

Power outages have affected 116,000.  Fortunately, the storm center is passing between New Orleans and Houston, and winds have decreased to 60 mph.  Trump has signed the emergency aid a few hours after the request.  And the river crest forecasts have reduced flooding by 2 to 3 feet.  They still expect serous flash floods tonight.

I went to a climate action meeting this morning, including how to lobby lawmakers.  I can’t imagine that these rains do not make an impression on Gulf State lawmakers that climate change can be very dangerous and costly.

Posted in Climate Science, Coastal Flooding, Donald Trump | Leave a comment

Trump Plans to Achieve his Gerrymandering Plan Without the Census Citizenship Question

Donald “Bonkers” Trump said today on the “sacred” grounds of the White House that reapportionment and allocation of federal funds needed to know who were citizens.  (It’s odd, that we have done SIX census starting in 1960, reapportionment, and yearly federal allocations, without having a citizenship question on the census.)  His statement of course, totally ignores the constitution which says to count all free people.  The free refers to slaves, not just citizens, as Trump may want to pretend some day.  Trump also said that only voting age adults who were citizens should be counted.  It’s almost as if Trump had now also aborted all underage children from their inalienable right to being counted.  Trump also implied that states could use the citizens or eligible voters count to allocate districts. Mathematically, that knowledge would help Republicans in states that are now free to gerrymander, in order to get more secure Republican districts.  That is why Trump signed an order requiring all parts of the federal government to share their citizenship data to determine their distribution.  This is a pretty blatant misuse of Presidential power to bias towards his party.  But so, it turned out, was the citizenship question on the census.  No, the President was not “defeated” today.

An enormous $675 billion of federal funds are directed according to population.

Even if Trump uses other means to find out who is a citizen in a district, he called it “needed information”, it cannot be substituted for or added to the official census count.  Since Attorney General Barr was standing on Trump’s left without wincing, you can count on there being a lot of obviously unconstitutional actions by the DOJ and the Commerce Department, and subsequent countersuits that will take years to get a ruling from the Supreme Court.

Trump has said in the past that there were 30 million illegal immigrants in the US.  The official number, which I think means the number from Trump’s Administration, is that there are only 11 million illegal immigrants, and 11 million legal residents, who are not citizens, totaling 22 million non-citizens.  Trump never mentions the legal residents.  What does that mean?  Anyway, the 30 million is why I called him “bonkers”.  It’s hard to imagine that Trump does not know the difference between these categories, since Trump married both Ivana and Melania before they became naturalized citizens.

Earlier today, Trump met at the White House with 200 of his main web backers on various social media.  These might be where he got his number of illegals from.  I don’t think that he caught a mental virus from these backers, since his over 10,000 lies preceded their contaminating the White House. 

The fear induced by ICE raids on Sunday is going to be connected to the census by their discussion together on the news this week.

Posted in 2020 Election, Donald Trump | Leave a comment