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Monthly 2-m air temperatures for the Arctic using ERA5 reanalysis (area averaged north of 70°N). Individual years from 1950-2020 are shown by the sequential blue to white lines. 2021 is indicated by the red line. Due to preliminary data from ERA5T (for 2021), this graphic will be updated at a 1-month lag. Updated through November 2021.
Monthly 2-m air temperature anomalies for the Arctic using ERA5 reanalysis (area averaged north of 70°N). Individual years from 1950-2020 are shown by the sequential blue to red lines. 2021 is indicated by the yellow line. Due to preliminary data from ERA5T (for 2021), this graphic will be updated at a 1-month lag. Anomalies are calculated from a 1951-1980 climate baseline. Updated through November 2021.
2021’s monthly 2-m air temperature anomalies for six regions in the Arctic using ERA5 reanalysis. Shading indicates the maximum and minimum temperature anomalies for each month over the 1950-2021 period of record. Due to preliminary data from ERA5T (for 2021), this graphic will be updated at a 1-month lag. Anomalies are calculated from a 1951-1980 climate baseline. Updated through November 2021.
Daily 2 m surface air temperature for the Arctic averaged above 80°N. Individual years from 1958-2020 are shown by the sequential blue/purple to yellow lines. 2021 is indicated by the red line. ERA40 has been applied for the 1958-2002 climatology (white line), while the operational ECMWF is used for the current year. This figure is modified from the Danish Meteorological Institute with more information available at http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php.
Total freezing degree days (FDD) in the Arctic (80°N+) calculated from ERA40 and ECMWF. Data modified from http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php (DMI). FDD are summed over the differences from the freezing point of sea water (-1.8°C).
Total freezing degree days (FDD) anomalies in the Arctic (80°N+) calculated from ERA40 and ECMWF. Data modified from http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php (DMI). FDD are summed over the differences from the freezing point of sea water (-1.8°C). Anomalies are calculated from the ERA40 1958-2002 mean.
Total thawing degree days (TDD) in the Arctic (80°N+) calculated from ERA40 and ECMWF. Data modified from http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php (DMI). TDD are summed over the differences above the freezing point of sea water (-1.8°C).
Annual average 2-m temperature anomalies in the Arctic (67°N+) for various reanalysis data sets. Anomalies are calculated from a 1981-2010 baseline. NCEP/NCAR (R1) is available from 1948 to 2020 at https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis.html. NCEP-DOE (R2) is available from 1979 to 2020 at https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis2.html. CFSR data is available from 1979 to 2020 at https://rda.ucar.edu/datasets/ds093.1/. MERRA-2 is available from 1980 to 2020 at https://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/reanalysis/MERRA-2/. JRA-55 is available from 1958 to 2020 at http://jra.kishou.go.jp/JRA-55/index_en.html. ERA-Interim (ERAi) is available from 1979 to 2018 at https://www.ecmwf.int/en/research/climate-reanalysis/era-interim. ERA5 is available from 1979-2020 at https://apps.ecmwf.int/data-catalogues/era5/. Tools including the NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division Web-based Reanalysis Intercomparison Tool: Monthly/Seasonal Time Series (WRIT) have been used for the construction of this plot. Analysis will updated as annual data becomes available. Additional reanalysis data sets will also be added with time.
Annual average 2-m temperature anomalies in the Arctic (67°N+) for various reanalysis data sets. Anomalies are calculated from a 1981-2010 baseline. GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP) is available from 1880 to 2020 at https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/. Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (Berkeley) is available from 1850 to 2020 at http://berkeleyearth.org/data/. Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CRv2c) is available from 1851 to 2014 at https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.20thC_ReanV2c.pressure.html. NOAA-CIRES-DOE Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CRv3) is available from 1836 to 2015 at https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.20thC_ReanV3.html. ERA-20C is available from 1900 to 2010 at http://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/data/era20c-daily/levtype=sfc/type=an/. JRA-55 is available from 1958 to 2020 at http://jra.kishou.go.jp/JRA-55/index_en.html. ERA-Interim (ERAi) is available from 1979 to 2018 at https://www.ecmwf.int/en/research/climate-reanalysis/era-interim. ERA5 is available from 1979-2020 at https://apps.ecmwf.int/data-catalogues/era5/. Tools including the NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division Web-based Reanalysis Intercomparison Tool: Monthly/Seasonal Time Series (WRIT) were used for the construction of this plot. Analysis will be updated as annual data becomes available.
Annual mean surface air temperature anomalies for the Arctic (67-90°N) and for the Global average (90°S-90°N) from 1950 to 2020. Linear trend lines (dashed) are also shown over the 1990 to 2020 period. GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMPv4) is available from 1880 to 2020 at https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/. Tools including the NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division Web-based Reanalysis Intercomparison Tool: Monthly/Seasonal Time Series (WRIT) have been used for the construction of this plot. Analysis will updated as annual data becomes available.
Mean 925 hPa air temperature north of 67N (Arctic Circle) over 1949-2021 (October – February). Temperature reanalysis from NCEP/NCAR R1. Subplot highlights surface air temperature anomalies averaged from October – February 2021 using a 1981-2010 baseline. (Updated 3/3/2021)
Changes in annual mean Arctic sea ice extent (NSIDC, Sea Ice Index v3) and air temperature anomalies (Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature; BEST) over the satellite era. BEST is available from 1850 to 2020 at http://berkeleyearth.org/data/. Updated 2/8/2021.
Temperature rankings (1 = warmest, 43 = coldest) from NCEP/NCAR (R1) reanalysis of Arctic 925 hPa air temperatures (70N+). Figure is updated through November 2021.
Zonal-mean cross-section (latitude vs. height) of decadal trends in annual mean temperature for the Northern Hemisphere (0-90°N). Trends are calculated using ERA5 reanalysis over the 1980 to 2020 period.
Monthly temperature anomalies and rankings (1 = warmest, 42 = coldest) from ERA5 reanalysis of 2-m air temperatures in the Arctic (64N+). Anomalies are computed relative to a climatological baseline of 1981-2010. Figure is updated through 2020.
Monthly temperature anomalies and rankings (1 = warmest, 71 = coldest) from ERA5 reanalysis (back extension) of 2-m air temperatures in the Arctic (64N+) from January 1950 to December 2020. Anomalies for each month/year are computed relative to a climatological baseline of 1951-1980. Figure is updated through 2020.
Zonal-mean (45°N to 90°N) cross-section (latitude vs. height) of decadal air temperature trends in boreal winter (December-January-February). Trends are calculated using ERA5 reanalysis over the 1980 to 2021 period. This figure was adapted from Labe et al. [2020, GRL].
Refereed/Peer-Reviewed Publications:
[3] Peings, Y., Z.M. Labe, and G. Magnusdottir (2021), Are 100 ensemble members enough to capture the remote atmospheric response to +2°C Arctic sea ice loss? Journal of Climate, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0613.1
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[Plain Language Summary][CLIVAR Research Highlight]
[2] Labe, Z.M., Y. Peings, and G. Magnusdottir (2020). Warm Arctic, cold Siberia pattern: role of full Arctic amplification versus sea ice loss alone, Geophysical Research Letters, DOI:10.1029/2020GL088583
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[Plain Language Summary][CBS News][Science Magazine][The Washington Post]
[1] Labe, Z.M., Y. Peings, and G. Magnusdottir (2018), Contributions of ice thickness to the atmospheric response from projected Arctic sea ice loss, Geophysical Research Letters, DOI:10.1029/2018GL078158
[HTML][BibTeX]
[Plain Language Summary][Arctic Today]
Resources:
More real-time Arctic products are available:
All of the Python 3.7 code used to generate these figures are available from my GitHub account. Most scripts use data sets that are generated via ftp retrieval.
*These figures may be freely distributed (with credit).