The Great Democratic Turnout in Georgia 6th’s Election
Everyone wants to draw a moral from the election of Republican Karin Handel to the solidly Republican Georgia 6th Congressional District. This was the most expensive district election in history, costing $56 million, twice as much as the previous most expensive one. Yet if you forget the political climate, it comes down to the people who vote. In a previous post I dreamed that if the Democrats came out in the 2018 midterm, the same way they came out in the presidential election 2016, while if the Republicans came out as they did in the mid-term election of 2014, the Democrats could win in my home Irvine district, the firmly Republican California 45th. This is EXACTLY what happened in Georgia’s 6th district election that was just held. Let’s start with the data.
2014 Mid-Year Election:
Republican Tom Price: 139,018 66.04%
Democrat Robert Montigel: 71,486. 33.96%
2016 Presidential Election:
Republican Tom Price: 201,088. 61.7%
Democrat Rodney Stooksbury: 124,917. 38.3%
2017 Special Election:
Republican Karin Handel: 134,595. 51.9%
Democrat Jon Ossoff: 124,893. 48.1%
And here’s the point. In the special election, the Republican vote was almost the same as in the 2014 midterm, but 4,423 less. But the Democratic vote remained at exactly the same level as in the important 2016 presidential election! In many other Republican districts this would lead to an overthrow of the Republican candidate, but it didn’t quite make it here. Yet it was a Democratic triumph with a 75% higher turnout than in the 2014 midterm election. If Democrats can keep up 2018 midterm turnouts at the same rate as in the 2016 election, they should win many districts.
In Georgia’s 6th, the ethnicity is 70.8% white, 13.4% black, and 13.4% Hispanic. Republicans, especially in the South, provide fewer polling places for the poor and minorities. Lines can run hours long. There was heavy rain on Election Day, starting around noon. 24 people had to be rescued from a flooded warehouse. This could have easily discouraged Democratic voters.
In the General 2016 election, there was a lot of evidence that large monetary expenses did not heavily effect the outcome. That was especially true in this election, where both parties raised about an equal amount of money. This really shows the voters’ intelligence. This district, North of Atlanta, is one of the 15 districts in the US where over 50% of the adults have college degrees.
