March 29. Trump Sees the Light on Coronavirus

March 29.  Trump Sees The Light on Coronavirus

Trump extends limits to April 30th.  Without stay-at-home, there could be 1.6-2.2 million deaths.  With the confinement steps, Dr. Fauci said 100,000 to 200,000 deaths.  Dr. Birx cited numbers of 80,000 to 160,000 deaths, but IHME numbers actually center around 80,000, but range from 40,000 to 160,000.  The peak will be in two weeks.  Actually, there is a spread in days of when the peak might be reached.  My IHME writeup is two articles back.  The CNN commentator misstated the 100,000 to 200,000 as deaths if no action was taken, such is the fog of war.

The larger number of mask usage, which Trump cited as suspicion of fraud,  is because usually, most patients are not contagious, as happens now with Coronavirus.  Any of the doctors on the task force could have told him that on the spot.  Trump also said that it wouldn’t be over until June 1.  Millions of American could get the Coronavirus.

Trump criticized PBS Alcindor, and CNN Jeremy Diamond.  He again shaded Washington Gov. Inslee, and Michigan’s Governor.  He still criticized New York for not distributing its stockpile of ventilators, even though NY will need more.  Trump still would not answer the question of whether everyone who needs a ventilator could get one.  The answer is no — by a long shot.  Trump wouldn’t answer the question of why Florida gets 100% of its medical requests.  Of course, Florida is the crucial swing state.  Trump again said that he expected governors to be appreciative of him and the others working on the government efforts, or he wouldn’t talk to them.

Trump just has guidelines.  But the non-confined states aren’t forced by a federal decree to confine people.  Also, the federal guidelines still allow meetings of 10 people or less.  It should be family only confinement. 

The news said that all of this was agreed upon this afternoon, which is probably why the news conference was delayed an hour.  Otherwise, they were going to announce it on Tuesday.  They used several projections beside IHME.  The 2.2 million possible deaths is what convinced Trump to extend their restrictions for a month.  It all seemed last minute and confused.  Trump still talked about altering things for some counties.

At least, the news conference was held outside in the Rose Garden.  The reporters were spread out, as were the speakers.  Trump was a respectable distance from the reporters.

In contrast, New York Governor Cuomo’s morning conference were well planned and explanatory slides, with the latest data.  He explained that different areas of New York were going to peak at different times.  He also said that the previously independent hospitals, both public and private, would all have to work together during this crises.

One news comment was that Trump was rejecting the Inspector General set up to review the handouts of the $500 billion aid to businesses.  Trump explained that they were going to get warrants or shares of companies.  Let’s see.  State run companies.  I think Trump has a word for that:  Communism.

The was a lot of talk about the new Abbott lab test, which was 45 minutes, then 15 minutes, then 5 minutes.  But they are initially only producing 50,000 of them.  The total number of tests performed is still under a million.

Here is today’s table of Domains, Cases, and Percent Increase over yesterday.  Several of the reports are low, probably because labs don’t work on Sunday, or agencies don’t get full reports.  Such must be the case with Mexico, with no new cases.

Domain Cases Percent Increase
US 142,502 14.5%
NY 59,746 9.0%
NJ 13,386 20.3%
CA 6,284 11.5%
MI 5,488 17.8%
MA 4,955 16.4%
FL 4,950 22.6%
IL 4,596 31.4%
WA 4,493 4.2%
LA 3,540 6.8%
PA 3,465 19..1%
TX 2,820 11.8%
GA 2,683 9.7%
CO 2,308 12.0%
CT 1,993 30.8%
TN 1,723 14.0%
OH 1,653 17.6%
IN 1,513 22.9%
MD 1,239
NC 1,202 13.2%
WI 1,164 10.3%
Canada 6,320 11.8%
Mexico 848 0
Brazil 4,256 9.0%
Los Angeles County 2,136 18.4%
Orange County 431 6.9%

Illinois and Connecticut at about 31% are very disturbing.

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March 28. US Coronavirus Deaths Cross Two Thousand

Today, the US deaths crossed two thousand, to 2,191.  New York led with 834 deaths, of which 672 were from New York City.  New York also crossed the fifty thousand case mark.

Here is today’s table of total cases, with Domain, number of Cases, and Percent Increase from yesterday.

Domain Cases Percent Increase
US 124,464 19.7%
NY 53,520 16.3%
NJ 11,124 26.1%
CA 5,636 19.6%
MI 4,658 28.2%
WA 4,310 15.8%
MA 4,257 31.4%
FL 4,038 26.3%
IL 3,498 15.7%
LA 3,315 20.8%
PA 2,909 24.1%
TX 2,523 29.5%
GA 2,446 22.3%
CO 2,061 18.6%
CT 1,524 18.0%
TN 1,512 14.7%
OH 1,406 23.4%
IN 1,231 25.7%
NC 1,062
WI 1,055 13.9%
Canada 5,655 19.1%
Mexico 848 45.0%
Brazil 3,904 14.3%
Los Angeles County 1,804 23.1%
Orange County 403 25.5%

Only three US states got to around 30%, being Michigan, Massachusetts, and Texas.  Mexico had an enormous 45% increase.

Orange County cases were in Anaheim (37), Irvine (36), Newport Beach (36), Huntington Beach (32), Santa Ana (20), and smaller amounts, with Other (39) in small cities, and 46 with locations still unknown.  Orange County’s 25.5% growth rate will double the number of cases in three days.

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Projected Coronavirus US and State Deaths, Peaks, and Hospital Needs

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) has produced projected Coronavirus evolution cases and deaths, and matched it against hospital resources, to project the hospital needs.  The paper is on the Med preprint archive MEDRXIV/2020/043752, linked here.  The IHME Institute is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the State of Washington.  Their website also allows the user to dial up the hospital data and Coronavirus evolution graphs for the US or each state.

I will summarize the data in a table, for the current top affected states.  While 25 states currently have safe-at-home restrictions, covering 200 million Americans, the study assumes that all 50 states will adopt these restrictions within a week.  The group also emphasizes the importance of people taking the restrictions seriously.

The predictions for the US is that it peaks on 4/14, in 16 days.  This is two days after Trump’s Easter hope.  Note, that it Peaks, not Ends there.  The total deaths by August 3 are estimated at 81,114, but with a wide 95% range from about half to double that number:  38,242-162,106.  I know the numbers should be rounded, but I am just going to follow the conventions of the paper.  That is 1 out of every 4,000 Americans.  It is larger than the number of gun deaths and auto deaths combined.

The US bed shortage at the peak is centered at 49,292, the ICU bed shortage is centered at 14,601, and ventilator shortage at 18,767.  Hopefully, the multiplexing of ventilators works.

New York, with about half of the current US cases, is estimated to have 10,243 deaths, with a range from 4,911-26,983.  Their peak is estimated to occur from 4/3 to 4/11.  The number of ventilator days that patients will suffer through is estimated at 85,028, with a range from 40,771 to 224,139.

California is estimated to have 6,109 deaths, with a range of 778 to 17,163 at 95% confidence level range.  Its peak is estimate between 4/9 to 4/30.  Its cumulative ventilator days are 52,336, with a range from 6,603 to 146,542.

Here is the table for the current top afflicted states, with columns for:  State, Peak Date, Deaths, Bed Shortage, ICU Bed Shortage, and Ventilator Shortage.

State Peak Date Deaths Bed Shortage ICU Bed Shortage Ventilator Shortage
US 4/14 81,114 49,292 14,601 18,767
NY 4//6 10,243 35,301 6,949 4,141
NJ 4/11 4,109 9,829 2,243 1,462
CA 4/24 6,109 0 299 1,238
WA 4/19 1,429 0 96 236
MI 4/8 4,016 10,563 2,564 1,785
MA 4/12 2,231 5,009 1,267 834
FL 5/14 3,342 0 0 451
IL 4/16 2,454 0 204 721
LA 4/8 2,081 2,013 959 775
PA 4/17 3,094 0 428 794
GA 4/21 3,165 2,114 977 846
TX 4/18 5,847 0 617 1,554
CO 4/28 940 0 0 182
TN 4/21 1,551 0 132 411
CN 4/10 773 1,603 422 281
OH 4/16 2,733 0 81 712

 

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New York Coronavirus Data on March 28

New York Coronavirus Data on March 28

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo gave a news conference on CNN this morning.  I took pictures of his slides on New York Coronavirus data, and present them below.  President Trump has approved four new hospital installations.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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March 27. The US Passes a Hundred Thousand Coronavirus Cases

March 27.  The US Passes a Hundred Thousand Coronavirus Cases

Trump promises 100,000 ventilators in 100 days.  Sanjay Gupta:  have to tool up, many may not come until later in the 100 days.  

Trump has dispute with New York Gov. Cuomo over how many sent.  Gov. Cuomo knows that the US has given him 4,000 ventilators.  He has also obtained some privately.  Has 40,000 patients in hospital today.  Worried about peak where state has 140,000 patients.  Surgeon general says it won’t be that bad.

Trump shades Washington Gov. Inslee and Michigan’s woman Governor Gretchen Whitmer.  Los Angeles cases tripled in three days?  Trump activates Defense Production Act to deal with General Motors production of ventilators.  GM claims it is working around the clock to gear up for this, and will make them at cost.  

National Geographic has a free Coronavirus issue.  Shows many cities in 1918 flu.  A late start was bad.  But even if leveled, if relaxed restrictions, then the flu came back again.  States around New York and on East coast are sending fleeing New Yorkers back or quarantining them for 14 days.  Sanjay Gupta said that people should stay home.

Another free hour of Trump self praising himself.  Now rated 52% approval.  

Italy average death age 78.  Average of conditions of the dying is 2.7.  

I have focused on cases, because focusing on deaths is just too depressing.  I also concentrated on the US and locally, because the world data are also depressing.  Now, the US and local data are getting depressing.  But this is living through history, as distinct as the 1918 flu.  It will totally disrupt our society.  It is just the opposite of dealing with the multidecade problems of climate change.

In Lousiana, of those who died, 41% had diabetes, 31% had kidney disease, 28% were obese.  They are short of PPE, personal protection equipment, and ventilators.

The County of Orange is now reporting cases in cities of population over 25,000.  However, this doesn’t include Laguna Beach, which is just at that, or the retirement community of Laguna Woods.  

I get like 10 daily reports on the Coronavirus from publications which I signed up for.  Clearly, I don’t have enough time to read most of them, nor do I have to repeat them.  Watching CNN, the Met Opera, TV shows and movies, and occasional OLLI lectures, and looking at all my science and news pubs keep me busy.  Pretty much life as usual, but a lot less driving.

Here is the table of today’s Domains, Cases, and Percent Increase.

Domain Cases Percent Increase
US 104,007 21.4%
NY 46,016 17.6%
NJ 8,825 28.3%
CA 4,714 16.9%
WA 3,723 16.1%
MI 3,634 27.8%
MA 3,240 34.1%
FL 3,198 28.7%
IL 3,024 19.0%
LA 2,744 19.1%
PA 2,345 30.6%
GA 2,000 32.9%
TX 1,949 18.0%
CO 1,738 21.5%
TN 1,318 20.1%
CT 1,291 27.6%
OH 1,139 30.9%
IN 979 51.8%
WI 926 27.2%
Canada 4,749 17.4%
Mexico 585 23.2%
Brazil 3,417 14.5%
Los Angeles County 1,465 19.2%
Orange County 321 25.4%

The good news is that the US and New York growth slowed down.   The NY growth leads to doubling after 4 days, which is what Gov. Cuomo said this morning.  The US growth doubles in a little less than four days.  Indiana had a terrible day.  California, Washington, and Los Angeles County are down in the doubling in 4 day rate.  Orange County reduced to a three day doubling from a higher rate yesterday.  Brazil was on as a test of Bolsonaro’s insincerity, but the news says that the Favela gangs are enforcing a stay at home curfew at night.

Of the 321 Orange County, CA, cases, 34 have an unknown location, and 27 are in other cities than those listed.  The cities with the most cases are:  Irvine, 33; Newport Beach, 32; Anaheim, 28; Huntington Beach, 26; and Santa Ana, 13.

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Trump’s New York Coronavirus Apocalypse Now

Trump’s New York Coronavirus Apocalypse Now

New York Governor Cuomo projects the need for 30,000 more ventilators at the projected peak in three weeks.  Donald Trump goes on Fox News with his feelings that New York doesn’t need them now.  See the disconnect?  A perfect set up for another too little, too late response.  Thus, Trump is holding back on a contract for a mere $1.5 billion to produce 20,000 ventilators.  15,000 of the ventilators are needed in New York City.

New York has about half of the US Coronavirus cases, dominated by New York City cases.  Gov. Cuomo also wants the federal government to set up three more Coronavirus hospitals.

The US Congress is voting to pass a $2 trillion bailout to avoid another depression.  $500 billion goes to a fund that Trump largely oversees.  Also, Trump boosted our military budgets by $200 billion for the last three budgets, which will total $800 billion over Trump’s budgets.  So Trump’s political skinflint over $1.5 billion, to give Democratic New York a hard time, is unbelievable.

How many weeks does Trump think that a critical patient gasping in an ICU can suffer waiting for a ventilator to be contracted, produced, and shipped before he or she dies?  The answer:  two gasps.  Easily, 30,000 New York lives can be lost because of another of Trump’s inhumane “feelings”.  Los Angeles, Chicago, New Orleans, etc. will soon be in the same situation.  For a long time, the medical community has called for another 110,000 ventilators nationwide.  There are currently 60,000 in use, not all of which will be available.  Then, there are 50,000 older and less capable ones in stockpile.  Trump is also waiting for Gov. Cuomo to use his own stockpile of ventilators, as if that is an excuse to not prepare for the greater need in the next few weeks.

When will it dawn on Trump that his solely owned empire, the Trump Organization, has significant property in New York and New York City.  Even though Trump is now a low tax Florida resident, they are also becoming a Coronavirus hot spot, especially around Miami and Mar-a-Lago.

Furthermore, there are a lot of dual residents of New York and Florida, and a lot of Florida retirees from New York with families in New York.  Florida is also a main New York vacation spot.

So the point that I am driving at, is that 30,000 New York deaths blamed on Trump inaction, is going to kill Trump’s reputation in New York and in Florida.  This is not only going to kill Trump’s businesses in New York and Florida.  It could also cost Trump his reelection.  Florida is a swing state, with the greatest number of swing electoral votes, namely 29, out of a total of 270 electoral votes needed to win.

Guess what other New Yorker  is embedded in this disaster?  The omnipotent Jared Kushner had been instantly assigned to get more ventilators produced.  Trump’s son-in-law also has considerable New York investments.

Trump won by 37 electoral votes, with 306 total.  Trump moved some states not even considered swing states.  He won Florida (29), Pennsylvania (20), Ohio (18), Michigan (16), and Wisconsin (10), which total 83 electoral votes.  So losing Florida and one other would give him a loss.  Florida did eventually close some beaches during spring break.  They did not cancel spring break.  They are still not shut down with stay-at-home.  The theme parks did close there.

So there appears to be a delay and a drop off of projected numbers with the GM-Ventec production deal.  A little late to make the deal and to find out the circumstances.  Hopefully, Dyson or Tesla can come to the nation’s rescue.  The whole Trump US empire is really at stake in this too little-too late response. 

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March 26. The US is Now the Most Coronavirus Afflicted Country

March 26.  The US is Now the Most Coronavirus Afflicted Country

The US now becomes the most afflicted country in Coronavirus cases, at 85,653, passing China at almost 82,000.  39,125 cases are from New York, and over 18,000 from New York City.  People think this is from the high population density where people are living.

The US has also passed the thousand death benchmark at 1,290.  454 deaths are from New York, of which 365 deaths are from New York City.

Italy will soon pass China, also.  Italy’s curve is starting to depart from the exponential growth curve.

The US:  too little too late in responding; too little too late in testing; too little too late in confining; too little too late in supplies; too little too late in funding; and so on into the apocalyptic future.

Unemployment filings were at 3.3 million last week, quadruple a previous weekly record.  But, a lot of people had trouble filing, so expect more.  Also, now 212 million Americans are asked to stay home.  The unemployment boom will go on for three or four weeks.

Peter Navarro, the White House China antagonist, was on CNN claiming that China could have informed us 6 weeks earlier.  That is earlier than the 3-4 weeks previously claimed.  I wonder if he has prevented the US from seeking medical equipment from China, which they no longer need.  He also tried to put blame on the Obama administration.  For some reason, Navarro is in charge of getting more US manufactured medical equipment to FEMA.  His performance was totally political and rude, discouraging those in New York and New Jersey, who are dying for aid.  He wouldn’t give a number for ventilators being produced, and discounted the need for a million, which nobody had really claimed.  The highest number that I have heard was 220,000, double the present number, including the stockpiled old ones.

Apparently, Trump said this evening on Fox that he didn’t think that the US needed 30,000 or 40,000 more ventilators.  The White House slowed down a contract for 20,000 more.

Why isn’t the US sending all needed national stockpile ventilators to New York, where they are needed immediately?  Is he holding back to give them to swing and Republican states?  He already said that he is not responding well to New York and New Jersey, since they are not showing him the required deference.

Our Irvine Representative, Katie Porter, has a cold plus temperature, so she was Coronavirus tested, and is awaiting the results.  I actually said hello to her at the drug store in the local market.  She was wearing a mask.  We wish her well.  She had been working on putting restrictions on the open ended initial Senate bill.

I wish that they would pass a bill requiring Trump to stay six feet away from the members of his pandemic task force on the podium, since we need them to guide us out of this, and inform the President, who is daily misled by Fox News.  The President daily sets a bad example for the nation in this personal enhancement TV behavior.  Also, his daily bawling about how painful the few second swab was, discourages others from getting tested.

I have to amend the discussion of the virus being airborne for a half hour, and even longer.  Those were under stagnant lab conditions.  The important thing is to keep air moving, either with the heating system in winter, and the air conditioning or open windows and fans in summer.  Even cracked open windows and heating in the winter.  The other necessity is to replace air filters with the highest quality ones, and change them on a regular schedule.  The city of Irvine had its filters upgraded in response to the virus.  Dr. Fauci mentioned the floating aerosols of the virus this evening.

Bill Gates said that the whole country has to restrict together.  It should last from 6 to 10 weeks.  It has to be a national shutdown.  He talked about the 33% a day exponential growth,  He is hopeful that we can scale up to make a vaccine in one year.  And maybe have therapeutics.

My own worst case scenario, if we weren’t confining ourselves follows.  Professionals say that 1/2 will be infected.  We have to focus on the 20% that need hospitalization and oxygen.  Of those, 5% of the total, will need a ventilator in an ICU.  They are already saying don’t resuscitate.  Since there won’t be enough of either, the 20% may die, but the 5% actually will die.  The hospital system will become irrelevant, except for saving the very rich.  The number of old and immune challenged exceed these numbers.  So it would be 1/2 of 5% or 2.5% will die for sure.  Maybe 1/2 of the 20% will die, for 10%.  If the 1/2 is wrong and all catch it, then 20% or 5% will die.  With 330 million Americans, these estimates range from 8 million to 66 million.  If the growth of deaths continue exponentially at 1.33 each day, the 1,000 deaths will reach 10 million, or an increase of 10,000, in 33 days.

Ventilators don’t reproduce ventilators at 1.33 a day.  Production lines work linearly with time.  So you can’t catch an exponential.  In Trump’s 17 days to Easter, the 1.33^17 = 127, so there would be 127,000 deaths.  We really have to stay strictly to the safe at home routine, and call on our Republican states to follow suit.

Here is the daily growth table for the leading US states with over 1,000 cases, and some other domains.  Before today, it was states with over 500 cases.  There are 15 states with over 1,000 cases, and 8 more with over 500 cases.

Domain Total Cases Percent Increase
US 85,653 24.1%
NY 39,125 18.5%
NJ 6,876 56.0%
CA 4,032 27.6%
WA 3,207 23.3%
MI 2,844 23.9%
IL 2,542 36.0%
FL 2,484 25.6%
MA 2,417 31.5%
LA 2,304 28.4%
PA 1,795 39.8%
TX 1,651 24.0%
GA 1,505 8.51%
CO 1,430 31.6%
TN 1,097 19.8%
CT 1,012 15.7%
Canada 4,046 18.9%
Mexico 475 17.3%
Brazil 2,985 16.9%
Los Angeles County 1,229 51.0%
Orange County 256 36.9%

New Jersey is very high at 56%.  Los Angeles County is also very high at 51%.  Orange County is uncomfortable at 37%.  Washington used to be around 12%, so 23% is high for it.  Canada, Mexico and Brazil are low for the day.

For days I have wanted to include a logarithmic growth graph, but by the time a news organization approved it, it would be out of date.  Here is one used by Paul Krugman.  It is from Worldometers.  All of the data is collected by Johns Hopkins, CSSE.

The vertical axis is logarithmic, so a straight line is exponential growth.  The red line is the US and clearly exponential, close to the doubling every two days growth line.  Doubling every two days need a daily increase of 41.4%.  The black line is Italy.  China is an orange line, which has turned flat for little growth.  The days axis are from the first date that each country reached 100 cases.  The really successful countries have been Japan, Singapore, and Hong Kong, which reacted immediately.  That is where the US could have been, and should have been.

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March 25. Grocery Shopping in the Coronavirus Era

March 25.  Grocery Shopping in the Coronavirus Era

I went shopping in a large market away from the University, but still found the paper shelf empty.  They even had posted a limit on one box of Kleenex per customer.  They closed off one of the entrances.  At the main entrance, someone handed you a hand wipe, which I also used to wipe off the bar on the cart.  Other than paper towels, they had everything that I wanted.  They had a single line to feed checkout lines, which was a series of rectangles, though maybe not 6 feet in length.  Then each available checker would signal you when you could approach their counter.  I had to take all my items from my reusable shopping bags for checking.  Then, I had to bag them myself, and put them into my cart.  I was careful not to handle items that I wasn’t going to buy.

I finally saw another reference than a few days ago, that the Coronavirus was airborne.  It was by a doctor on Samantha Bee.  That will reach a lot of people.

191 million Americans are now under stay at home orders.

The Senate has passed the now $2.2 trillion economic rescue package.  The House members have been at home, and will review it, to see if they can pass it by unanimous consent.

We present a table of the states or domains with leading cases, and their percent increase today.

Domain Cases Percent Increase
US 69,018 25.4%
NY 33,030 25.2%
NJ 4,407 19.9%
CA 3,161 23.4%
WA 2,600 5.31%
MI 2,296 28.1%
FL 1,977 34.8%
IL 1,869 21.6%
MA 1,838 58.6%
LA 1,795 29.3%
GA 1,387 26.4%
TX 1,331 33.2%
PA 1,284 35.7%
CO 1,087 19.2%
TN 916 18.7%
CN 875 41.6%
OH 704 24.2%
WI 637 32.4%
NC 624 23.1%
Canada 3,404 21.9%
Mexico 405 10.4%
Brazil 2,554 13.7%
Los Angeles County 814 23.0%
Orange County 187 23.0%

 

The New York Times has a comprehensive list of cases and deaths by States, and by Counties.  We list the leading counties in New York, which has the largest number of US cases, 30,811, as of this afternoon.  They have 285 deaths.  New York City, with the largest number of county cases, 17,857, has 199 of the state’s deaths.  New York City has 58% of the state’s cases.  In New York City, 3,750 or 21.0% are now hospitalized, and 840 or 4.7% are in ICUs.  These agree with the 20%, and 5% numbers that came out of China.

County in New York Cases
New York City 17,857
Westchester 4,690
Nassau 3,285
Suffolk 2,260
Rockland 968
Orange 638

In the New York Times County list, California has 2,872 cases.  The leading California counties are below.  Los Angeles has 28% of the state’s cases.

California County Cases
Los Angeles 799
Santa Clara 375
San Diego 242
San Francisco 181
San Mateo 165
Orange 152

 

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March 24. Coronavirus Safety versus Commerce

March 24.  Coronavirus Safety versus Commerce

Trump keeps walking to the end of the plank.  He has been pushing going back to work, deciding in one week.  Fortunately, criticism and good advice have delayed it for three weeks from now, until Easter.  We are indeed hoping that it will be accomplished by then, instead of 3 months. But the number of those infected is still skyrocketing with added testing, and deaths will mount as our healthcare system is overwhelmed, and doctors and health care workers get sick and are pulled out.

However, Trump has said that since other forms of death in America are large, and we do nothing about them, that we shouldn’t worry about Coronavirus deaths, either.  Trump sited the yearly flu, and auto accidents.  The flu runs from 12,000 to 66,000 and have been high in the last two years.  Auto accidents are 37,000.  Auto accidents also injure 2.35 million in the US.  By the way, we do a lot to protect against auto accidents.  Hopefully, automated driving will lower this considerably.  The actions which we are taking to halt the Coronavirus Pandemic should also help stop the flu, and we can keep some in place in future years.

However, Trump forgot to include other sources, which he has acted to increase.  Of course, we always start with death by guns, which are around 36,000, and Trump has always backed out from acting on.  

Then there are 26,000 deaths a year from those who lack health insurance.  Trump and Republicans have worked tirelessly to destroy Obamacare since day one.  

A new study from MIT show that 90,000 to 360,000 deaths a year are premature, due to air pollution.  Trump has only worked to remove regulations on this.  People die from obesity and conditions caused by it.  Trump has abolished Mrs. Obama’s healthy foods school cafeteria programs.  Trump has tried to cut food programs for students and poor families.  23% of Americans don’t have enough money to pay for prescriptions from doctors.  Paul Krugman has shown that the average lifespan is four years longer in Democratic states, than in Republican states.

At least the more detailed plans will save Americans of 65, but what about a large percentage of Americans with immune compromised systems?  Also, about half of those employed fall into the essential category.

Half of US cases come from New York, and those who go elsewhere should self isolate for 14 days.

Today, the world passed four hundred thousand cases, at 422,652, with 18,901 deaths.  The US passed fifty thousand cases, at 55,041, with 790 deaths.  Of those deaths, 192 were in New York City, and 94 in King County Washington.  There have been over 300,000 tests.

The table has the Domain, the number of Cases, and the Percent Increase.  

Domain Cases Percent Increase
US 55,041 17.0%
NY 26,374 13.5%
NJ 3,675 29.2%
CA 2,562 16.3%
WA 2,469 11.2%
MI 1,793 34.9%
IL 1,537 19.6%
FL 1,467 10.6%
LA 1,388 18.4%
MA 1,159 49.2%
GA 1,097 36.6%
TX 999 30.6%
PA 946 35.5%
CO 912 26.1%
TN 772 25.7%
Canada 2,792 33.7%
Mexico 367 0%
Brazil 2,247 16.8%
Los Angeles County 662 22.6%
Orange County 152 21.6%

India put its entire country of 1.3 billion people under stay at home, with only 536 cases.  That is how a real country works.

Fortunately, the 40%s and 50%s of yesterday have dropped sharply.  Was that a weekend effect?  Washington is still 11%.  However, even 11% a day is doubling in a week.  The curve has a flatter logarithmic slope than others, but not flattening in real numbers.

Even Los Angeles and Orange counties reduced from the low thirties to the low twenties.

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March 23. Trump’s Future Coronavirus Views

March 23.  Trump’s Future Coronavirus Views

I don’t have exact quotes, so forgive me.  Today, Trump dealt with our future, but I was going to put together his previous ideas as well.

Trump said today that at the end of the 15 days, March 30, he would evaluate keeping the shutdown rules.  But the federal government did not confine residents in stay-at-home orders as states and cities have, now totaling 100 million Americans, or a third.  So what does this mean?  Clearly, Trump wants his economy and instant rebound stock market back.   Speakers on the right (Fox News) have pushed to just keep the economy going, knocking off people like me.  

There is a certain contradiction here.  The bailout is now $1.8 trillion, meant to last months.  But if we all restart in another week, what’s it all about, Alfie?

Recently, Trump pointed out that if you go from 60,000 ventilators to 110,000 that will be needed, you are going to have a lot of inventory left over that you will never need again.  Why would he say that, if he really intended to have people produce that many.  The good ones cost $50,000 each.  That extra 50,000 ventilators would cost $2.5 billion.  Still a small cost compared to the $500 billion slush fund that he wants to use at his discretion, without disclosure!  Each ventilator will save many lives, even in just the next few months.

Even if the Coronavirus takes a summer break, it will be a year and a half before a vaccine is available.  That means the fall of 2021.  So when the virus comes back this fall, we still don’t have it for the entire season.   

Trump implied that another deadly virus would not occur for centuries.  First of all, this is still here for another year and a half.  Second, it may well mutate, and one of the mutations may not be covered by the developed vaccine, like the flus keep doing.  Third, bad viruses occur once or twice a decade.  This applies not only to ventilators, but all expansive medical equipment:  masks, goggles, gowns, tests, oxygen tanks, ICUs, hospital beds, and other shortages that will still appear.

A real danger is that Trump’s fantasy wishful thinking is that a magical mushroom, I mean drug, or drug combination, will appear, which immediately cures the virus without more deaths than the virus itself, and will save the economy and his re-election.  The other danger is that in removing all scientific regulations, he will also rush to an untested vaccine overnight, as is his style.  It’s initial failure, will remove all public trust, and when a tested vaccine appears, it will not be universally used.  Trump cited a single patient who was helped, still better than the questionable study of 20 that he has been citing, despite deadly potential side effects.  Remember when candidate Trump cited an unidentified case of some one child who showed symptoms of autism after he got a vaccine.  That really caused an uproar.

Trump’s dreams of the future are, of course, all about him winning, defeating a pandemic single handedly, and of course, being reelected with ultimate powers.  The stock market and jobs will instantly rebound, even stronger than before.

If Trump overrides state shutdowns, and the Coronavirus resurges, we will all suffer.  We will already have a good two week start to confine the virus, which we are all suffering for.  Let’s not throw that all away, just to get Trump reelected.

If Trump wanted to do anything to lose the confidence of Americans in his dedication to ending this pandemic, especially with the fewest deaths, casualties, and least suffering, he has done it in saying that the economy is more important to him.

We have reached another milestone, that of more than 100 casualties in a single day.  Beyond the century number, we have now surpassed the number of Americans who die each day from guns in America, and have been doing so for years.

Trump began his press conference by saying that people should not harass Asian Americans.  I wonder who could have encouraged that?

The stars and a planet were very bright tonight from the clear air.

I went down to Main Beach in Laguna today, and it and the downtown were almost deserted.  Main Beach and its park, as well as all Laguna Beach parks are now closed, partly to keep people from elsewhere from coming into the city.  This is how cities isolated themselves from plagues in times of old, except that they had walls.  I have photos on my Flickr account.

The world total number of cases is now 381,293, and deaths are 16,572.

The US now has 610 deaths.

Seventeen states have now adopted a Safer at Home strategy.  Here is an ABC map of them.

Here is the table of the US, leading states, and other domains cases to date and percent increase.

Domain Cases Precent Increase
US 47,057 41.4%
NY 23,230 47.1%
NJ 2,844 48.6%
WA 2,221 11.3%
CA 2,203 34.2%
MI 1,329 28.2%
FL 1,227 47.8%
LA 1,172 40.6%
GA 803 33.8%
MA 777 15.6%
TX 765 22.0%
CO 723 51.9%
PA 698 37.1%
TN 614 21.6%
Canada 2,088 47.0%
Mexico 367 46.2%
Brazil 1,924 20.8%
Los Angeles County 540 32.0%
Orange County 125 31.6%

So yesterday’s hope that southern states were growing slowly has vanished.  The large jumps may be that Sunday’s results were slow because of the weekend, in some ways.  The Surgeon General warned us to expect large jumps this week, and they have appeared.

New York cases are still about half of the nation’s cases.  Governor Cuomo says that he needs 30,000 ventilators, and has asked the President to invoke the Defense Procurement Act to get them.

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