Trump Flunks an Intelligence Test with every Tweet or Commentary, and School Reopenings

Trump Flunks an Intelligence Test With Every Tweet or Commentary, and School Reopenings

Why did doctors supposedly retest him for Alzheimer’s?  Trump pretends it was a test of his supreme mind, but it wasn’t.  We’ll get to this in a bit.

The California Attorney General is suing the Trump Administration for the last minute change of immigration requirements for the F-1 student visas, that students have to attend in-person classes.  That has been watered down to just attending one full-time in-person classes.  There are 1.1 million international students in the US, and 370,000 are from China.

Imagine being an international student who is in the middle of a four year education at a US university.  All of your arrangements and payments have been paid on schedule.  Then, when your home country has a success story in beating down the Coronavirus, you find yourself in the worst virus fighting country in the world, with one-quarter of the world cases, but with only 4% of its population.  And, the US, beginning with the virus-blind President on down, is actively forcing re-opening with the resulting second explosion of the Coronavirus.  Not only is it too late to transfer to another university outside of the US or in a safe state, but you cannot take a flight home, or into countries with the best universities, because you are in the plague-ridden United States.  Then, you are told that only the foreign F-1 students have to risk sickness by attending an in-person class, if you can get into one, while Americans can stay safely at home.  This, after you paid an out-of-state tuition more than three times that paid by an American student.  After you had to pass a competitive exam to study in the US, and have taken years of English courses to get fluent.

Back to the Mind of Trump that thought this up, or acceded to it.  

Why was Trump given the mental test, all ask?  Why didn’t they give him a test in racism?  Or a test in truth telling, i.e. a lie detector test?  The answer, is that none of these are needed.  Every Tweet, and every comment Trump makes, is reeking with dishonesty, naivety, racism, fantasy, wishful thinking, and severe egotism and narcissism.  Trump must now be up to 20,000 lies or misleading statements since he took office.  If he passed a test in realism, Trump lying must be that he has no heart or moral core.  Trump said that the doctors were surprised that he passed the test.  That is very understandable.

In my discussion of the dangers of sending kids back to school, I didn’t mention dangers to parents or grandparents.  First of all, some grandparents take care of kids when they get home from school.  They are vulnerable by age and by conditions which accumulate with age.  Even though the parents of K-12 children may be under 45, the US is afflicted with a population that is a third obese, which is a key risk factor.  Obesity also leads to other risk factors.  The Vice President has said that $13.3 billion CARES funds go to schools.  Those funds may be denied to public schools which do not reopen with in-person classes.  They may lose money from students who are vulnerable or have vulnerable parents or grandparents and which are kept home for web based classes.  States have suffered great losses of taxes for schools by the forced business close-downs, and are losing more from the second close-downs caused by the forced Republican re-openings.

Back to the Mind of Trump.  Here is the American public’s rating of the intelligence of Trump’s Coronavirus response.

The renewed second explosion of the Coronavirus under Trump’s virus blindness, which he is responsible for encouraging, means that he now deserves to have the resurgent virus name after him, the “Trump Coronavirus”.  Or name it Trump Covid-2, for the second virus outbreak that Trump could not stop.

It’s a same that the second and third highest population states are Republican, Texas and Florida, and their Republican governors followed Trumps rush to reopen, subjecting 50 million Americans to be exposed.  From the close party split in the House, we know that half of the US population is under Republican command, and is put at exceptional risk.  This will be greatly enhanced when they force their children to go back to school.

Here is the American Public’s test of Trump’s Intelligence in fighting the Coronavirus:

Posted in Coronavirus, COVID-19, Donald Trump, Education, Health Care | Leave a comment

Will the Coronavirus Mutate to Attack Children?

Dear Donald and Betsy:  Please do not subject our children to a Coronavirus mutation experiment.

We know that the Coronavirus is mutating, and we could have gotten the mutation arising from Europe.  It’s not that the virus is a being.  It is evolution and the zillion reproduced viral forms produced on every victim that naturally make test mutations.  The ones most likely to spread, and to massively reproduce, especially in presymptomatic victims, are the ones that will prosper and multiply.  Now, the main spread is among people age 18 to 44, since elders are wiser, and wisely sheltering.  Also, those older than 65, are likely retired and less exposed to the public.

Now, Trump is forcing K-12 schools to restart in-person classes.  Yesterday, Education Secretary Betsy DeVos insisted that all schools go in-person 100%.  Today she is backing a plan to apparently remove funding from public schools and giving that to the students to use in, presumably, unscrupulous private schools which will start in-person despite the risks to children.  DeVos has personal business conflicts involving private and religious schools, and has been pushing for public funding of such schools.  They are now using children’s and their parents health as sacrifices to accomplish private school funding and getting Trump reelected.   I don’t think many religious schools would agree with sacrificing lives for their funding.

So far, children don’t really have any deaths from the virus.  But there are 6.2 million children with asthma, often from pollution, and other vulnerabilities, such as 0.2 million with Type I diabetes.  But no children want to infect their parents, and feel responsible for seeing them hospitalized.  There are 76 million school children in America.

But the possibility being speculatively raised in this article, is that with children being the new and main carriers, the Coronavirus would evolve into forms which would multiply more in children to provide more virus cells to be spread by exhaling aerosols and coughing up droplets.  That would make the children much sicker and require hospitalization and the need for oxygen.  There are other viruses which are more dangerous to children than the Coronavirus, so it may be possible for this to become one of them.

The other people vulnerable in schools are teachers and staff.  The latest data that I could quickly find on teacher’s ages was from 2011-2012 on the NCES (National Center for Education Statistics) website.  Nationwide, 18.8% are over 55, and another 11.9% are between 50-55, totaling 30.7%.  The median age of teachers nationwide is 44.0 years.  In California, the number of teachers 55 or over is 23.7%, and adding 12.6% between 50-55 gives 36.3%.  Texas had 18.8% over 55, and 11.2% between 50-55, giving 30%.  Florida didn’t have any figures in the table.

Many schools start at the end of August.  California schools start much later in September.  That gives us time to see how badly the infection rate is, before we make our final commitment.  Election Day is two months after school starts, by which time we will find out the wisdom of blind reopening of 100% in-person classes, and if the Coronavirus will evolve by mutation again.

Posted in Coronavirus, COVID-19, Department of Education, Donald Trump, Education, Health Care | Leave a comment

Trump is Forcing Schools and Universities to Reopen with an Iron Fist

Trump’s Rule by “Ferrous Fistus”

Trump is ruling by an Iron Fist.  The only ruler listed ruling by an Iron Fist is Sadam Hussein of Iraq, but there are many synonyms suggested, such as Tyrant.  The “Iron Fist” also turns out to be a Marvel superhero.

Trump is forcing school districts and Universities to reopen in the fall, 100%, by every means that he thinks that he has at his disposal.  

I couldn’t find his 100% tweet, perhaps because it was taken down?  Several administration “Obsequions” are trying to excuse it by implying it was not really 100%.  They are also rushing to construct rules about this, with no guidance, since it clearly caught them by surprise.

The Acting Director of Homeland Security, no less, Ken Kuchinelli, promised some guidelines in a few weeks, presumably after they figured out what it means.  Trump said that all immigrant student visas would be cancelled to any University which did not teach in-person classes to them 100% of the time.  Maybe DHS and universities, which were also caught off-guard, would like to interpret this that 100% of only international students would have to set foot once a week in a single in-person class.  They were told to conform by July 15, in only one week, a typical Trump rush to succeed by “skiptus legalus”.  Harvard and MIT, however, have already sued.  (Ken Kuchinelli is infamous for trying to pin an email-gate on Michael Mann, the originator of the global warming “hockeypuck” curve.  Mann was cleared multiple times.)  

There are over a million international students in the US, with 400,000 from China.  They are an integral part of University funding, paying high out-of-state tuitions, which subsidize US students with financial needs.

The American Physical Society has already opposed cancelling visas, pointing out that a half of our STEM graduate students are international students.  They drive American research, and can go on to filling the American needs in the STEM fields.

I don’t yet have firm numbers of how much international students contribute to our Universities and our economy.  In the University of California they pay approximately $29,000 extra in tuition.  Nationwide, they contribute $41 billion dollars into Universities.  Plus, the students act like full time tourists for most of a year, contributing to housing, restaurants, goods, and entertainment, creating a half million jobs.  Finally, admissions, plans, and financial arrangements are already in place for the fall.  The student just can’t suddenly jump to universities elsewhere in the world.  They deserve some human rights under our immigration laws, and international standards.  Likely, Congress sets some immigration laws, not the Iron Fist.  The University of California and California State Universities will either file their own suits, or join the Harvard-MIT one.

Renfield, er, Dr. Redfield, Director of the CDC, was on TV about to redraft any CDC guidelines which might get in the way of opening any K-12 or other schools.  It will be interesting to see how private and religious schools react since the Department of Education under Secretary Betsy DeVos is party to this move.  Trump has complained that the CDC guidelines are too “tough”.

Trump couldn’t just encourage school re-opening, he had to threaten it by denying funds.  Although most of school funding is state with maybe some local enhancements, I’m sure Trump has some pot that he can use for this threat.  Republican Obsequion Governors will also now have an excuse to fall in line.  Somehow, I thought that Congress controls the allocation of funds.

As if there is not enough political and careful scientific epidemiological conflicts to be ironed out district by district, and state by state, we now have the Iron Fist intervening.  Reasonable people are trying to adopt a hybrid approach.  However, those vulnerable to Coronavirus infections, or have vulnerable parents, should be able to opt out.  This reminds us of the battle to exempt anti-vaxers, which also concerned health safety.  Except, the sides are now reversed.  Teacher’s unions also have safety clauses, and will weigh in on this.

The President is described as having a bully pulpit.  But to have it used by Super Bully is a totally new phenomena.  Which leads to a new type of governance, a “Bullyocracy”.

Personally, I think that classes in Pandemics ought to be required in K-12.  First, this is a unique opportunity to teach history as it is really happening, and of ultimate importance.  Second, a lot of parents may have distorted political viewpoints about wearing masks, and I can’t wait until grade school kids go home and tell them to wear a mask.  Children have to protect themselves and their parents, probably for several years, and need to have clear knowledge about his.

What gets me, is that Desperate Donald wants to get reelected by a resurgent economy, but this can only be achieved by slowing the Coronavirus by wearing masks and social distancing.  Yet, he and his core supporters are encouraged to ignore these basics.  “Quale Farcicus”.  If there is anyone who has made the second Coronavirus explosion start and propagate, and thus complicate school reopening, it is Trump himself.  Count on him to complicate school reopening, by still waffling on required masks and social distancing.

Trump touted school reopening in Germany, Denmark, and Sweden.  Here are the new daily virus cases in the US and those countries, courtesy of CNN.

Since we are discussing Universities, I don’t see why Trump allegedly had someone take the SATs for him.  With his father’s wealth, and even his own wealth at his young age, he could have easily contributed his way into some Ivy League school.  Knowing that Trump became President, I am actually glad that he got into good schools to give him some smattering of a good education.  Unfortunately, Trump has budget attacked Universities his entire political career, in all ways possible, all leading to delaying suits.

By the way, if it wasn’t obvious from the start, all of supposed Latin phrases are “humorous”.  I don’t know any Latin.

Posted in Coronavirus, COVID-19, Department of Education, Donald Trump, Education, Health Care, Humor | Leave a comment

IHME Projects Masking Could Save 45,000 Lives by November

IHME Projections Until November.  Masking would save 45,000 lives.

The U. Washington IHME modeling has extended projections four months from now until Nov. 1, two days before the Nov. 3 election.  They show increases at the end of the summer, perhaps due to school starting.   The projections are made today, July 7.

The US has almost reached three million cases today.  At 3.3 million, it will be 1%.  US cases are increasing at over 50,000 a day.  Today there are 131,268 US deaths.  Projected deaths on Nov. 1 will be 208,000 continuing as present, but could be reduced to 163,000, or by 45,000, or 22%, if we could have 95% wearing masks when in the presence of non-family members.

I am including Countries and States where the future projected deaths have grown dramatically from present ones, or where there is a large number of deaths to be saved by masking.  First, some world Countries.

Countries Present Deaths Projection With Masks
US 131,268 208,255 162,808
Brazil 66,741 179,703 180,551
UK 44,476 68,367 48,420
Mexico 31,119 103,977 98,257
Iran 11,931 62,251 32,254
Russia 10,478 16,883 13,974
India 20,159 —-
Peru 10.952 39,112 39,807
Israel 342 2,259 1,230

We list some state with either large increases, or many lives saved with masking.

State Deaths Projection With Masks
CA 6,484 16,827 11,904
FL 3,840 17,472 9,849
TX 2,725 13,450 6,442
PA 6,787 9,999 8,270
AZ 1,927 5,553 3,542
AL 1,033 3,443 1,682
VA 1,879 5,190 3,019
OH 2,970 5,712 3,883
IN 664 1,908 1,052
MS 1,157 2,438 1,682
NV 548 1,304 750

Roughly 31,000, or 2/3 of the 45,000 lives saved by masking are in the states listed above.  In the top three populated states, California, Florida, and Texas, the lives saved by masking total 19,554 or almost 20,000.  They are 43% of the total 45,000 lives saved by masking.

Lives saved in California are 4,923 out of a total increase of 10,343 projected deaths, or 48%.  Lives saved in Florida by masking are 7,623 out of a total increase of 13,632 projected deaths, or 56%.  Lives saved in Texas by masking are 7,008 out of a total increase of 10,725 projected deaths, or 65%.

A new study shows that half of infections come from those who are presymptomatic, that is those who do not yet show symptoms and don’t yet know that they have the virus.  That is why we have to all wear masks.

To illustrate the 95% range of projections, the California projected deaths of about 17,000 have a range of 13,000 to 24,000.  We do not necessarily trust the announced deaths in some foreign countries.

Posted in Coronavirus, COVID-19, Health Care | Leave a comment

Totally Masked Trump is Slowly Being Unmasked

Totally Masked Trump is Slowly Being Unmasked

Update:  July 7.  CNN reported from Mary Trump’s expose that Donald Trump hired another student (who she named) to take his S.A.T.’s for him.  This after two days of Trump doubling down on racist statements.  Parents have recently been sentenced to prison for cheating on their children’s SATs and using back doors for admissions.

Trump is always wearing a mask, which covers up whether he has a heart or any morals.  While others wear masks to not propagate virus droplets and aerosols, Trump’s mask still allows him to fully propagate viruses of hate, fear, racism, and political slander.  No mask can contain Trump’s massive Ego and Narcissism.  Even Trump’s most experienced political and Fox News advisors in the White House can’t contain his bad and embarrassing ideas, tweets, retweets, and lies.  By now Trump has obtained a round 20,000 lies or misstatements since he has been in office.  No innuendo, conspiracy theory, accusation, racist or white national retweet is too low for Trump.

Like no other President ever, as he likes to exaggerate, Trump has hidden everything about himself and his family.  He has threatened or actually sued, or bought off, anybody or any institution who has personal or derogatory information about him.  Most importantly, we don’t have any real picture of his health.  Other than bone spurs and living to 200 years of age.  And permanent blond hair, no glasses, and a unique orange hue.  But now, we have yet another book by an experienced Washingtonian about his incompetence by former National Security Advisor John Bolton.  At the end of July, we will see a book by Trump’s niece about Trump, his family, and his businesses and inheritance.  

Trump has fired several prosecutors for investigating him or his colleagues.  He has fired several inspector generals to not investigate him or his associates.  His Attorney General has interfered in cases to remove charges or lower sentences.  

The Supreme Court will rule soon on the revealing of Trump’s taxes, either to the House committee or the New York prosecutors.  They still won’t be made public.

Trump’s continued pursuit of dismantling the Affordable Care Act, now during our worst pandemic in a century, reveals his heartlessness about medical care for the poor.

At the Trump Rally at Mount Rushmore tonight, Trump did not mention the Coronavirus.  Only one out of 20 in the Box with him wore a mask.  Almost none of the 8,000 person audience wore masks, and many were overweight.  Fortunately, it was outside and breezy.

I don’t understand how Trump can take a July 4th event with the Air Force Band and four Flyovers, including Air Force 1, and give an hourlong Campaign speech, without violating the Hatch Act by using government support for a campaign rally.  Yet he praised supporting the Constitution.

A few days ago, the Trump campaign was unmasked when Trump could not answer Hannity’s softball question of what was he going to do in his next term.  Trump’s speech was mainly about protecting our monuments from a handful of people who sprayed graffiti on one or two, as if it was the biggest threat to our nation.  He associated this with the Democratic Party.  No mention was made of the dozens of Confederate monuments that Trump is really protecting.  He said this in front of the Lincoln Monument at Mount Rushmore.  

He praised all four Presidents in the Monument including Teddy Roosevelt, in contrast to having claimed last week that the famous Remington statue of “The Cowboy” in the Oval Office was one of Teddy Roosevelt.  Still no platform. So Trump takes a great Fourth of July Independence Day speech, patriotic music, and later fireworks, and adds to it all of the gutter slime accusations and imaginary horrors to scare the country and its voters.  The @realDonaldTrump unmasked from the slick Teleprompter Trump.

Unfortunately, attorney and Fox News star Kimberly Guilfoyle, who is now Donald Trump Jr.’s girlfriend, has tested positive for the Coronavirus, but fortunately, she is asymptomatic.  She attended Trump’s Tulsa rally, and mixed with campaign donors, as Chair of the Trump Victory Finance Committee.

Trump has masked the identity of those who write his speeches, who does his retweeting, and who his real advisers are.  He has masked the conflicts of interest and lack of qualifications of his Cabinet and political appointees.  He has masked the distribution to businesses of $500 billion in Coronavirus relief funds.

So, while refusing to mask himself, Trump is busy trying to mask others by denying them freedom of speech, the right to peaceably assemble, the right of the Congress to investigate and have oversight, and by denigrating the press with insults and the Fake News label.  He is also trying to essentially mask voters from voting by denying them safe mail-in ballots. 

Masking is actually one of Trump’s main strategies.

Posted in 2020 Election, Coronavirus, COVID-19, Donald Trump, Freedom of Speech, Freedom of the Press, Freedom to Assemble, Freedoms, Health Care, Humor, Mitch McConnell, Mueller Report, National Monuments, Politics, Secrecy, Trump Administration, Trump Truthiness, Voting Rights | Leave a comment

Coronavirus Test Certifications and Registry

Coronavirus Test Certifications and Registry

Again, in this age of Big Data, the Federal Government and States are totally oblivious to how important recorded test results will be in getting through the Pandemic and back to full employment and in-person classes.  While the coming vaccine may not be fully effective (50% will pass the FDA), may come with feverish side effects for some, discouraging its use, or be easy-peasy, the vaccinated will need an official card to show that they have taken it.  Since cards are forgeable, there will also have to be an official computerized list.  This could get people okayed for jobs, children and other students admitted to class, and get people onto transportation as planes, buses, subways, and cruise ships.

In the half year to a full year before that, positive or negative virus tests, anti-body tests, and hospitalization records and exit tests could clear people for the same safety checks as a vaccine.  Even if someone tests positive now for a virus, the presumption would be that after a time they would be safe and also equipped with anti-bodies.  People leaving hospitals are cleared by two successive negative tests.  

Already, there are 2.7 million tested positive US cases.   While the CDC factor or 10 times as many real cases was only valid in March and April when there was a steep rise, we are again in that situation.  Applying that, would mean that 27 million Americans could already or soon pass an anti-body test.  That is already 8.3% of Americans, who could soon be given safety cards, for whatever situations they would apply.  With our present and future haphazard (literally) restarts of the economy and virus waves, that will rise to a considerable fraction of the population.  

Presently, we are testing plateaued at what is bragged at as a half million tests a day.  But with 330 million Americans, it would take 660 days to test them all, and then after almost two years, you would have to start all over, since we don’t know how long the antibodies last, more than the four months that we have had cases.  

Also, the Coronavirus has already mutated once to a more spreadable, and just as dangerous form.  As the virus gains more footholds, and continually spreads and respreads around the world, we expect many more mutations.  This complicates the question of built-up immunity after an infection, of herd immunity, and the design of more effective and comprehensive vaccines. 

In all cases, we need machine imbed-able readable cards and available web lists to document all of the testing which has occurred, and appropriate clearances for tested from the results.   

Of course, there will always be the paranoid anti-carders in America.  But if they want first choice for jobs, or discounted airline tickets occupying middle seats,  or discounted movie tickets, they might come around.  They also might be more popular on dating sites.

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Coronavirus, Trump, and Putin

Coronavirus, Trump, and Putin

Russia, Putin, and Trump

First, I thought that Trump was covering up the Russian-Taliban scandal of paying the Taliban to kill US soldiers, because there was an election in Russia.  Time has now pushed back the Administration’s knowledge and trying to inform the President to early in 2019.  The only way that the bounty would have worked, if all 60,000 Taliban were informed about it.  It is hard to hide that from intelligence agencies or the military.  It does not reveal any inside contacts or new detection capabilities.  

Any other President would have made a big public fuss and discuss further sanctions against Russia for Putin altering the Russian Constitution to allow him two more 6 year terms.  Putin still has 4 more years on his present 6 year term.  Putin started and served two four year terms from 2000-2008.  He then started his first six year term in 2012-2018, and is on his second six year term 2018-2024.  With two more allowed six year term, he may serve until 2036.  So sixteen years so far, still four more to serve to make 20, and an added 12 more years possible.  That would make 32 years, a third of a century, and the equivalent of 8 American Administrations.  Putin is 67 years old, and could rule to age 83.  The alteration of the Russian Constitution for this is rather buried in the ballot.  So Trump was trying not to rock Putin’s boat by mentioning this, or possibly to embarrass Putin by admitting to the bounties interference, which could engender more sanctions against Russia.  We know what Putin has over Trump:  Putin’s contacts and interference in Trump’s 2016 election, which Trump completely denies, after having been impeached over it.

Trump is Not the Lone Ranger

Of course, we cannot pass up Trump’s ante of comparing himself to the Lone Ranger.  First of course, the Lone Ranger’s mask only covered his eyes, not his nose and mouth, which would also blur his speech.  The Lone Ranger had been a Texas Ranger lawman, not someone who was pursued by the law and covering his back by appointing a subservient Attorney General, and appointing 200 subservient judges.  The Lone Ranger was an exemplar of honesty, not emitting 20,000 lies or misleading statements in three and a half years.  The Lone Ranger partnered with a Native-American, Tonto, unlike Trump with few minorities in his Cabinet or White House.  The Lone Ranger saved people’s lives, instead of suing the Supreme Court to end the healthcare for 23 million Americans.  (Finally, the Texas Governor issued a mandate for mask wearing, and no gatherings of more than 10 people.  The Lone Ranger rides again.)

The Coronavirus is a Nuclear Explosion

The Coronavirus grows by a Reproductive factor R at each stage.  With R greater than 1, it is exponential growth at N stages of R^N..  But all of the descriptions that people use to emphasize or minimize its growth only grow linear with stage N.  A Train Wreck of N cars just hits one more car at stage, and eventually ends at N cars.  An Ember glows out.  Even a wildfire on a linear front, just grows linearly in area or stage N with time as the front moves forward at a constant rate.  Spikes peak, and then decline.  So does a Flare Up.  Yet the exponential growth of R^N is the same math as a thermonuclear explosion.  The increasing rate of growth of the Coronavirus keeps surprising people, but the rate of growth of an exponential is also the same exponential, not constant, as a linear process is.  Let’s get this into people’s heads: it is a nuclear explosion, which can start with any asymptomatic carrier not wearing a mask.

The Tulsa Rally Legacy

Unfortunately, Herman Cain is hospitalized with the Coronavirus.  He is 74 years old.  He attended Trump’s crowded, unmasked, and vocal Tulsa rally.  He tested positive a week after the rally.  While Tulsa infections have grown, there has not been a tracing of the health of all those who attended the Rally, other than the sick Republican National Committee members and the two dozen quarantined Secret Service members.

The Coronavirus Rebels

Added to the difficulties caused by the modern day Rebels who refuse to wear masks, a few are now refusing to collaborate with contact tracers.  Undoubtedly, they are very untrustworthy for self-quarantining also.  They are, however, self-dooming themselves to an earthly Hell.

Trump, Military Base Names, and Confederate Statues

Trump is passing up the opportunity of a lifetime.  There are at least three major military bases which Trump could attach his name to, by removing the names of the Confederacy.  The only problem, is that military bases are named after those who actually served in the Military, not dodged it.

There are also on the order of a hundred Confederate statues, from which Trump could remove their heads, and install his own sculptures.  He could also replace their swords with one of his golf clubs.  He would still probably have to make a new one with him driving his golf cart.  On the other hand, he would lose Southern votes.  But if he preserves the monuments until after he is re-elected …

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Masks Are Effective and Essential, and the IHME Projection Update

Masks Are Effective and Essential, and the IHME Projection Update

The IHME at U. Of Washington has done a literature study of the effectiveness of masks.  Used in the general population, they are 67% effective in reducing the spread of the Coronavirus.  When the IHME does projections, the wearing of masks by 95% of the population generally reduces future deaths by a half.  95% was chosen as the maximum compliance seen among countries.  A poll shows that 25% of Americans do not see the necessity of wearing masks, through incorrect beliefs.  

Trump actually endorsed mask wearing today.  Of course, he made it all about himself, saying vainly that he looked good in a mask, like the Lone Ranger.  Hi, Ho, Silver.  But, the Lone Ranger’s mask was around his eyes, not his nose and mouth.

The IHME has three projections.  The Current Projection actually has a built in restoration of mandates for two weeks when the daily deaths of a country or state exceeds 8 per million, based on actions from other countries.  For California with 40 million, that would be 320 deaths a day.  For Texas at 29 million, 232; for Florida at 21.5 million, 172; for Arizona at 7.3 million, 58 a day; and for the US at 328 million, 2,624 a day.  Right now, the US has 600-800 deaths per day, described by the Administration as “embers”. 

The Mandates Easing are the larger predictions if no mandates are reimposed.  These first two titles misled me, and probably others.  

The Universal Masks projection saving half of our new deaths, is if 95% wear masks, which is highly unlikely for the US.  In any case, if you want something simple to say to those who do not wear masks when and where they should, it is that wearing masks cuts deaths in half.  Social distancing is also important.  As is staying home when sick, and quarantining when exposed.

Here are the mask wearing habits of Countries and US States and Canadian Provinces.

 

Here are some CNN Coronavirus stories today.  Outdoor activities are 15 to 18 times safer than indoor ones.  California’s Governor Gavin Newsom just shut down 75% of activities for three weeks.  He is especially concerned about the July 4 weekend.  A JAMA article showed that total deaths which could be from the Coronavirus are 28% higher than official ones.  The FDA would accept a 50% effective vaccine.  The Pfizer spokesperson said that even if they had a vaccine by January 1, 2021, it would take a 1/2 to 1 year to get it produced and to get people vaccinated.

Here is the table of Current US and State Deaths, Current Projection, and Universal Mask Projection.

State Deaths Current Proj. Univ. Mask
US 128,000 175,000 151,000
FL 3,550 13,349 7,046
CA 6,109 9,853 8,500
TX 2,491 9,694 5,212
AZ 1,721 4,145 3,062
GA 2,827 5,206 4,119

The US Current Projection is 175,000 with 95% limits of (162,000 to 199,000).  The US Universal Mask Projection is 151,000 with 95% limits of (146,000 to 159,000).  The Current Projection is 47,000 more deaths on October 1.  With Universal Masks, this is reduced to 23,000 more deaths, or by about 50%.  For Florida, the Current Projection of 9,799 more deaths, would be reduced to 3,496 more deaths with Universal Masks, or to 36% of those of the Current Projection.  For Texas, the Current Projection of 7,203 more deaths, would be reduced to 2,721 more deaths, or 38% of the Current Projection.  For California, the 3,744 Current Projection new deaths would be reduced to 2,391, or 64% of the Current Projection.

These results should be posted on and in every bar in these states, included on the bar tab receipts, shown on the bar TVs, and everywhere else people congregate.

More than half of the 40,000 average daily US cases now come from CA, FL, TX, and AZ, which has 30% of the US population.

 

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The Government Failure in Big Data and Artificial Intelligence on Fighting the Coronavirus

The Government Failure in Big Data and Artificial Intelligence on Fighting the Coronavirus

CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield was asked today about information on risks of getting the Coronavirus associated with various activities.  He said something vague about looking into it.

Every keystroke any of us make on the internet, is entered into our sellable internet profile.  Profile is hardly a correct word, since a profile is a tiny outline.  The internet accumulators know us down to and through our souls.  Google is said to read each of our emails.  People who ask for their records, get about a gigabyte of data.  At about 5 bytes a word, this is 200 million words.  At 100,000 words per novel, this is the content of 2,000, hopefully fulfilling, novels.  For the 20 years that Google has been google eyeing us, that is a novel every four days.

Lets take the specific case of flying on an airplane.  Every flight is of course registered, and the FAA knows what the seating arrangement and masking requirement was for each flight of each airline, and where it picked up passengers.  You can’t get on your flight without them recording a picture identification, and checking you against a list.  It would have been easy to phone, email, or mail contact every passenger days after their flight, and see if they had any symptoms.  They could also be tracked for illness through their health care providers, urgent care records, doctor records, or hospital records.  The FAA knows what the air conditioning system of each aircraft is, and when filters are changed in service.  They know where every passenger was seated on the plane.  Big data and AI could crunch this in no time.  We haven’t been paying Homeland Security $300 billion, or $50 billion a year, for nothing.  I leave it to historians to find out why nothing was done, despite Congressional desires to do something.  They could have evaluated the safety of each airline seating arrangement, source and destination of each flight, and period of the virus outbreak, and effectiveness of each air conditioning and filtering type in each part of the aircraft, and effects of the length of flight, and masking policy.  We still know nothing about this, after months of flights and transmissions.

Hospitals keep computer records of procedures and conditions of patients, as do doctors in offices.  This was started in the 60s.  Yet only a few enterprising doctors in a hospital or hospital group are studying such data, and slowly evaluating single procedures or drugs.

Right now, we are in a senseless struggle with non-maskers.  In the fall, we are going to be in a struggle with those forcing kids back to school, from those full of misinformation about the seriousness of the virus and its spread.  We are, in a half a year or more, still going to have to contend with non-vaxers, preventing us from reaching herd immunity.  Today, Dr. Fauci estimated that it would take 70-85% vaccinated to reach that.  Yesterday, Dr. Fauci said that the vaccine may not be 100% effective.  This past year, only 40% were flu vaccinated.  They are making enough flu vaccine for 60% this year.  Flu cases can overload the hospital system, and also confuse cases with the Coronavirus, requiring more testing.  Flu deaths can reach 66,000.  I am hoping that social distancing and masking precautions still in place will also end the flu season with few deaths.

As with all things associated with our losing fight with the Coronavirus, we have made little use of our science and technology, and maximum use of our political posturing.

This lethargy or coverups starts at the top.  We know that Jared Kushner organized Cambridge Analytica, a British company (illegal foreign interference), to attack the electorate in 2016 (with purloined computer profiles).  Of course, both parties are making full use of this, for political gain.  But for fighting the virus?

Probably Big Data accumulators are already running internal studies of who will get sick, and what items do they have to order, and redistribute to handle their business.  Yet the government does not get their help in studying trends.  In the past, such companies have published studies of how the flu was growing.  Unfortunately, Trump’s only association with the largest distributor, Amazon, is to fight with its founder, Jeff Bezos, since he owns the Washington Post, although he refuses to control it.

The CDC is the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.  As far as Big Data is concerned, it has not acted as the Center, nor for Disease Control and Prevention.

Posted in Artificial Intelligence, Big Data, Coronavirus, COVID-19, Donald Trump, Health Care | Leave a comment

Politics: Trump, Hannity, Pence, and the Coronavirus

Politics:  Trump, Hannity, Pence, Coronavirus 

Hannity Subverts Trump’s Campaign

How tricky of Fox’s Sean Hannity to ask Trump an unprepared question.  He asked Trump what did he want to accomplish in his next term.  Trump never answered that obvious and most relevant question, to a conventional candidate.  Hasn’t Hannity learned that Trump thinks up a revolutionary and consequential idea in the middle of the night, or from a TV show, or a right wing website, or from Hannity, and tells Jared to fill it out over the weekend.   By then, Trump has had an Executive Order to sign, and half a dozen Excusers saying that he was just joking.  Republicans now are so used to it, that they never publicly question or evaluate the policies.  Their response is “eh”, or “I didn’t see that”.  Yes, there are “only” 130 days until the election, but that is still 130 ideas and embarrassments away.

The Democratic Left, however, expects their candidate to have held the Left’s brand new and untested opinions for their entire political life. 

Trump canceled his appearances this weekend to stay in D.C. and guard the monuments —single handedly, we imagine.  He must have a very long golf drive, because he did this from his golf course in Virginia.  By the way, Trump recently had a Fox interview with Harris Faulkner, sitting under the feet of the statue of Lincoln, who is turning over in his grave, now that Trump is defending any and all Confederate statues, and military base names.  Estimates are that at least 620,000 Americans died in the Civil War, and these old southern heroes were defending slavery.  When will Trump start building statues to the Coronavirus?

Trump’s Pinocchio:  Mike Pence

Meanwhile, Trump dispatched his puppet, Pinocchio Pence, to the First Baptist Church in Dallas Texas.  Pence said he was not going to have a rally in Texas or Florida, but just go and talk to officials of these breakout states.  Yet what to our wonderous eyes appeared, but VP Pence sitting in a Celebrate Freedom Sunday rally at the Church.  He was wearing a mask, emphasizing to Texans that they should too, as TV spots advertised.  But, the hundred person choir was singing full blast with of course no masks.  The last time this was done in Washington State, almost all of the choir came down with the Coronavirus.  The choir pictures shown in the video were often old people, and many of the choir were severely overweight.  The mask Pence wore, is not a protection against inhaling the plentiful aerosol particles released by the choir.  Fortunately, they were about a half a football field away.  We already have dozens of Secret Service who are quarantining after Trump’s Tulsa Coronavirus fiasco.  They should have protected the Vice President from this.  He is, after all, in charge of the war against the Coronavirus. At some point, the VP also spoke to the audience without a mask.  Aerosols can stay aloft for at least a half hour.  Remember when Trump had Pence fly to a football game, just to get up and leave after the national anthem, because one player knelt?  Trump also had Pence fly and drive to his golf resort in Ireland just to spend a night.  Hope Pinocchio Pence never gets his strings tangled, especially with his growing nose.  He gave a great religious speech, bemoaning the 125,000 American deaths, while being the key speaker at a rally designed to increase that.

The Church had a capacity of 3,000, and 2,200 were attending.  That means that they were hardly separated.  About half of those attending were not masked.  Some Texas areas barred any gathering of 100 people, even outside.  Others set the limit at 10.  There are 20,000 known cases in Dallas County, with a population of 2.6 million, so this is about 0.76%.

Tulsa Rally Seating:

It is now revealed that at the Tulsa Rally, the arena had marked every other seat with a do not occupy sign.  Yet before seating, the Republican Campaign removed all of those signs.  One reporter who attended has tested positive.  Will there be any tracing of the people who attended Trump’s rallies, and now Pence’s rally?

Religious Freedom?

This was combined church service and patriotic celebration.  The church website, firstdallas.org has the rally on its front page, along with its senior pastor, Dr. Robert Jeffress.  It is an evangelical megachurch, with a membership of 12,000.  According to Wikipedia, Jeffress has spoken out against Muslims, Jews, Catholics, Mormons, and homosexuals.  Jeffress is a member of the White House Evangelical Council.  I think that the Church and Rally had Religious Freedom backwards.  The freedom is from a government adopting any religion.  Yet here you had the Republican Vice President during an election, a Texas Republican Senator Cronyn, the Republican Governor of Texas, and Pence praising the Republican Governor, as part of the Church event.  As to freedom of worship, I’m sure that the secret service scanned everyone who entered, and checked their names against a safety list.  The option to not wear a mask and to have a massive event violated new state and local guidelines, reinforcing the culture war of Republicans.  Everyone seemed to be waving an American Flag, removing any separation between Church and State.  The governor of Texas refused to order masks statewide.  A judge declared that it is up to businesses to require clientele to order masks.  No Republican is willing to be the source of such an order.  The music was great, and I hope the choir, orchestra, and audience stays healthy.

Coronavirus Keeps Exploding

The math of the exponential explosion of a Coronavirus outbreak is the same of that of a nuclear explosion.  Nobody has really emphasized this in such terms.  Today, the World and the United States have passed round number markers.  Total world cases passed 10 million, and deaths passed 500,000.  This is a 5% death rate worldwide.  The United States passed 2.5 million cases, or 25% of the world’s cases, yet we have only 4% of the world’s population.  US deaths passed 125,000, or 5% of US cases.  Two estimates of actual total US cases from the CDC which I heard over the News but could not verify on their sight, were 10 times more than measured, and 6 to 24 times those measured.

Posted in 2020 Election, Coronavirus, COVID-19, Donald Trump, First Amendment, Freedoms, Health Care, VP Pence | Leave a comment