If Only Trump Had Been There

If Only Trump Had Been There

In one phone call, Trump solved the Turkish, Syrian, Russian and maybe Kurd problem, which hadn’t been solved in decades.  Or, it was negotiated by VP Pence and Secretary of State Pompeo.  Or, it is just a 5 day pause.  This leads us to only wish that Trump had been present at other times in US, Middle East, and World history.  Here is what he could have accomplished.

If Trump had been present at Yalta in 1915, he could have substituted for Roosevelt and met with Stalin and Churchill.  He would have insisted that the Kurds be given their own state, rather than being divided among Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Armenia.  It is so obvious today.  Since Yalta is in Crimea, Ukraine, he could have also solved the Crimean problem 100 years ago, and built the first Trump Seaside Resort at Yalta.

Trump could have freed the Hebrews from Pharoah by showing them the smugglers route through the sea of reeds, due to the drought.   Trump would have then tented the first series of  Trump Oases Resorts.  Later, he could have negotiated with Nebuchadnezzar in 589 BC to leave the Hebrews and Jerusalem alone, and built the first Trump International Jerusalem, across from the Temple.  Then he could have built the Trump Royale Babylon for Nebuchadnezzar.

If Trump had been in the Roman Senate on the ides of March in 44 BC, he could have saved Caesar, and married 25 year old Cleopatra.  Of course, he would have succeeded Caesar in the next election, except Caesar was attacked because he was declaring himself emperor, and there would have been no more elections.

In 445, Trump could have stopped Attila the Hun by putting a steep tariff on his elephants, before he sacked northern Italy.  You get it by now, the Trumpa Non Quid pro Quo Diversorium in Roma.  Trump would have been fluent in Vulgar Latin.

If Trump had been present in the late 1100s, he could have helped the Ming stop the Mongols of Genghis Khan with the Trump Great Wall, the most beautiful wall ever, and prevented the sacking of Asia.  More amazing, Trump would have gotten the Khan to pay for the wall.  Trump would have established the Trump Palace Residences in Beijing.

Was Trump in fact present when Galileo recanted in 1633, having convinced him that the earth was flat?  The Leaning Tower could have been the first Trump Tower, in Pisa, which leaned because Trump wouldn’t have paid for guild labor.

If only Trump hadn’t become President in 2016, our conservationist lives would have been oh so simple.

Posted in Affairs of State, Donald Trump, Humor, Turkey | Leave a comment

Our Turkish Nightmare

Our Turkish Nightmare

I have joked (?) around about Trump’s bullying as being pre-kindergarten, and his vocabulary being at about the same level.  I had even speculated that that was the age that Trump’s brain froze at.  Today, Trump called the highest political ranking Democrat in the country a third-grade politician.  With self-dignity, she walked out.  But it means that I have to re-evaluate that maybe I had been underestimating Trump, and that his brain actually froze at the third grade level.  How else would he remember what children were like in the third grade.  Also, Trump is still picking on girls or women.  Trump also called some in ISIS as Communists, and said that Pelosi might like that, continuing such an attack on Democrats.

Mitch “stone-wall” McConnell played the part given by the added nickname, and made no comment in the meeting, or afterward.  Today, the House voted to condemn Trump’s withdrawal from supporting our valuable allies, the Kurds.  129 Republicans voted with the Democrats to pass this, by 354-60.

I’m not militarily educated, and got poor grades in two years of mandatory ROTC at UCLA, but I can count.  The drawdown of US troops to 1,000 in northeastern Turkey already determined the outcome, and we will be lucky to just withdraw our troops without harm.  There are now an estimated 160,000 Kurd refugees.

The Turkish military is the second largest in NATO next to ours.  They have 400,000 men under arms, and another 400,000 reserves.  They make their own F-16s, and have 240 of them.  They also make much of their own weapons, and are a net exporter of them.  Their Air Force has 635 aircraft and 60,000 personnel.  They have also purchased the advanced Russian S-400 interceptor system.  Turkey is now manufacturing it’s own low altitude interception system.  The Turks are also using unregulated and brutal military militias to kill and remove the Kurds.

The way the US military operates is to first build up massive air and land dominance, and then attack.  We don’t have massive air dominance, and they have recent SAMs.  We don’t want to use our new stealth F-35s lest the Russians will gain experience with the SAMS to learn to nullify F-35 advantage.  We are outnumbered 400 to 1 in ground troops.  Just look on the map.  The strip being attacked is right on the Syrian border, and we are 7,000 miles away.

Plus, Turkey is a NATO member, and we don’t attack them.  So Trump was really boxed in, as were our troops, and I don’t see other realistic options.  Trump may be right that we had only aided the Kurds to oust ISIS from its’ territory, and not to defend them otherwise.  How would we, the public, know?  It may be that we spotted Turkish troop movements, and could do nothing about it.  We did bomb our base that we had just abandoned.

The US is only 5.6% of Turkish exports, and the best we could do is to call off a small amount of military equipment imports.  The 28 EU countries have done much more by stopping their military shipments, and hopefully their 48% share of Turkish imports, as well as tourism.  It’s not clear what Trump’s sanctions could be, other than the ones on a few individuals.

Why did it take Trump a week to meet with Congress, and then turn it into and insult session?  Trump also awaited until the Democratic debate to Veto the Senate bill removing his National Emergency to divert funds to his wall.

Yesterday, Trump bragged about the greatest economic factors ever.  Today, I gave the economy my own gasoline test — I paid $4.25 a gallon, and it cost me almost $50 to fill 3/4 of a tank.  Why didn’t Trump send the 2,000 troops to presumably man our anti-missile systems earlier to Saudi Arabia?

We can’t possibly follow the Medusa headed Giuliani scandals, even in shorts.  Other’s in the know must have suspected that Rudy was high on pot during his interviews, and Ukraine-American pot farms are now part of the scandal.  Tonight, we find out that Rudy was also lobbying Trump for Turkey’s Erdogan, without registering as a lobbyist.  This is starting to read like a Dan Brown novel, along with Rudy’s “Raiders of the Lost Server” in Ukraine.  Now Trump implies that the corruption starts with President Obama.

VP Pence and Secretary of State Pompeo are going to Turkey to try to get a cease fire.

Sounds like a Turkish Baklava, or dough layered with sugar syrup, pistachios, and flaky filo.

Posted in 2020 Election, 2020 Primaries, Affairs of State, Donald Trump, Trump Administration, Turkey | Leave a comment

Limiting Speech in China and in Trump’s America

Limiting Speech in China and in Trump’s America

In a set of recent events, we see that both China and Trump and his Administration are attempting to confine and control speech on both sides of the Pacific.  Is Trump winning this contest?

Rockets vs. NBA, Owners, and Business

The Houston Rockets general manager privately tweeted support for the Hong Kong protestors.  Compared to Tien An Min, the Communist Regime has been relatively mild, with a longer term view.  I sympathize with the youthful protestors who see their new autonomous region being challenged, and a lifetime of Communist conformity.  If they don’t defend it now, it will be gone.  The NBA response is to protect their $4 billion Chinese broadcast and merchandise market, but NBA Commissioner Adam Smith defended free speech.  The Chinese over-reaction, like Trump’s usual over-reaction to the slightest provocation, only shows to Chinese basketball fans how oppressive their government is, and how little they can do about it.

Colin Kapernick vs. Trump

This sports purity of non-essence recalls Kapernick’s silent kneeling vs. Trump and Pence trying to make political and patriotic points off of this, bringing much more attention to it than Kapernick could have brought himself.  The severe consequence is that Kapernick was dropped and not rehired.  Thanks to Nike for preserving his image.  He was before his time, considering what we know now.

Fox News, one down, one or more to go, thanks to Trump.

While the connection of Fox News to Trump is both the Regime Press, and the Official Presidential Influencer.  But they were not 100% pure in essence.  Trump’s Retaliative Compulsion also acted to prevent his Fox watching devotees from even getting an inkling of the true free press.  So he got Shep Smith deposed.  Without a pause, Trump is now working over Chris Wallace.  Of course, China totally controls its press, and would not accurately report the Hong Kong protests.

Trump’s Obsequions

Trump has rattled the chains of his robotic obsequions, so AG Barr came out denouncing the press under a Religious Conspiracy.  Trump’s campaign manager, instead of smoothing over the master’s barbs, calls Democrats seditious, and insists that Pelosi should resign.  

China’s Hong Kong Arrests vs. Trump’s Dog Whistle Threats

Trump and his obsequions have been dog-whistling just to threaten opposition politicians, or whistle-blowers.  This is unprecedented, unethical, and unheard of.  But now, to top it off, Trump’s radical supporters took the Church Murder Scene from the movie:  “Kingsman:  The Secret Service” and pasted over faces with Trump’s enemies, and had the agent appear as Trump shooting all of them.  This would have been bad enough created by a nobody on the internet, but this was created by a Trump group, shown at a Trump event, held at the Trump National Doral Miami, which he is trying to sell as the meeting place of the G-7.  I guess the dogs just weren’t picking up the subtle clues.  The start of the Hong Kong protests was a bill that would have let China take troublemakers out of Hong Kong for trials.

China’s Uighurs Action, and Trump Action Against Somali Refugees

The Chinese are “re-educating” and imprisoning a million Muslim Uighur for desiring their automatous government.  Trump has never criticized this.  In contrast, Trump goes to Minnesota and in the home district of Somali Muslim Representative Ilhan Omar, sets her up for blame by banishing any future Somali refugees, which he had already done initially with the Muslim ban.  He rails on her as the face of the Democratic Party.  She does Represent the main Somali settlement in America in Minneapolis.   Some 36,000 to 150,000 Somali refugees live in Minnesota, and 80% live in Minneapolis.

Trump-Rudy-Barr in China and the Ukraine

Trump’s call for China to investigate Hunter Biden under the threat of pressure from the US, and to kowtow to us, was of course a great insult to all Chinese and to their People’s Republic.  They told us to solve the problems of our Democracy by ourselves, with a tongue-in-cheek commentary on Democracies.

Trump pressured Ukraine with an improper denial of much needed arms as directed by Congress, in order for them to bad mouth the Bidens.  He also set AG Bill “Indiana Jones” Barr to find the lost ark or server of the Democrats which was conspiratorially hidden in the Ukraine, of all places.  They also had the apocryphal Hillary’s erased emails.  By the way, Mt. Ararat, of Noah’s Ark, is in Anatolia in Eastern Turkey, where some Kurds are. 

Well, upon careful consideration of the suppressions above, it’s still a tossup.  But, Trump has only just begun.

Posted in 2020 Election, 2020 Primaries, Affairs of State, Donald Trump | Leave a comment

The Strange Case of William Barr: Is His Sycophancy Innate or Adopted?

The Strange Case of William Barr:  Is His Sycophancy Innate or Adopted?

There are obvious gains to be made by serving a strong leader.  These gains are even enhanced by whatever you can do to enhance the status of your adopted leader.  These lead the sycophant to even ignore laws, rules, ethics, morality, and their own senses and superior legal educations.  Of course, when you are surrounded by a hand chosen and filtered sycophantic White House, Cabinet, 4,000 political appointees, Speaker of the House, and Senate, who appointed you, it becomes a lot easier.  Not to mention a Narcissistic President who watches and directs your every move, and who will insult you publicly if you twitter from his plans.  And, who will fire you at a moment’s whim.

Since we are approaching Halloween, we are reminded of Igor, servant to Dr. Victor Frankenstein.  For this holiday, there is also Renfield, a patient in an insane asylum who serves Count Dracula.

The sycophant in Shakespeare is said to be Iago in Othello.  Shakespeare also addressed the obsequiousness of courtiers.

As Yoda said while touring the White House, “the power of the sycophantic force is strong here.”

We know that Trump may have chosen Barr because of a sycophantic article that Barr wrote about Trump and claiming that the Chief Executive actually had almost unlimited power under the constitution.  Trump also had Rudy inventing all sorts of “Absolute Powers” for the Presidency.

The name of this piece comes from:  “The Strange Case of Dr. Jeckyl and Mr. Hyde.”  In this case, the accomplice and the leader are two personalities of the same person, sort of like the Trump – Barr connection.  As one would hope for in an Attorney General or Judge, Barr does have a Doctorate of Jurisprudence from George Washington University.  He received has BA from Columbia University, and then a Masters there in Government and Chinese Studies.  His parents both taught English at Columbia, and Barr was raised as a Catholic.  I was going to write to GWU Law to see if they had a course in Legal Sycophancy, but then realized it might be included under Business Law.  We discuss the English background, because AG Barrs summary of the Mueller report was so carefully misleading.  We remember how Barr hid during his hearing by asking what was the meaning of a special word.  We now have the “perfect” transcription of the “perfect” non-pressuring Trump phone call.  The real call as well as several others, are now locked in a code access computer.

AG Barr is not really free as a bird because he knew nothing of the July 25 call of Trump to Ukraine’s President Zelensky, in which Zelensky was told to contact Barr.  Barr was a believer in such conspiracy theories before he was appointed.  When the Mueller Report seemed sufficiently swept under the rug, (a day before Trump’s call, Barr started a Justice Department investigation of such rumors about the 2016 election and the origin of the Mueller investigation.  This could have encouraged Trump and made him think that Barr would investigate anything, not to mention the slathering sycophancy.

While I was composing this, the AG has presented a New Reveal.  Instead of just being the chief law enforcement officer, he is now the Chief Religious Officer.  Here is his public address quote:  “This is not decay.  This is organized destruction.  Secularists and their allies have marshaled all the forces of mass communication, popular culture, the entertainment industry, and academia in an unremitting assault on religion and traditional values.”  The AG is supposed to follow the secular Constitution, guaranteed by the First Amendment, which starts “Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom speech, or of the press;”.  The one person in the nation of 327 million who is in charge of guaranteeing First Amendment rights, has just trampled all over them, and labeled their use essentially a heresy and an attack on religion.  The problem with including religion in government, is the first question:  Who’s Religion?  The colonies were formed by people who chose the wrong religion in their country of origin, and wanted a secular government.  What we have done is to hand over the keys to Igor, or Renfield, or Mr. Hyde.

The other glaring mistake of AG Barr, is violating the Fifth Amendment, Due Process, and Innocent until proven Guilty.  That is his basic job to uphold, especially with a President who grossly violates it in every case possible.  Although, being Impeached, Trump suddenly insists on Due Process way beyond that allowed an impeachment investigation.  So in trying to escape from the Ukraine-Biden blackmail frying pan, AG Barr leaps into a conspiracy of the fiery media of the United States.  Notre Dame must be so embarrassed for inviting him.  But Barr is just following what must be the long held conspiracy theory of his master.  This is getting really scary, around Halloween.

Whenever DOJ Barr presents a case or a brief to any court, he always following the Trump/Pence/oilgarchs desires in pleasing their political bosses.  There are 113,114 employees of the Justice Department, with a budget of $30 million.  There are 130 separate organizations at Justice that hire law students and attorneys.  Criminal investigation has 13,677 employees.  I’m sure a lot of those know the traditional role that the DOJ fills, and the Constitution which it must uphold and obey.  There are a lot of lawyers to send to monitor foreign corruption around the world, than to have to personally involve the President’s Lawyer and the Attorney General themselves, investigating one particular person!

Now for the psychological question about sycophants:  Innate, or a chosen road to success?  According to the churchofsycophantology.com, it starts at birth with a desire to please the mother, and is therefore innate.  They say that sycophants actually start feeling resentful after a while.  Perhaps that is why people who have to swear to a sycophant loyalty eventually get fed up serving Trump and stand up for the lawful and truthful, and then get rudely dismissed. 

After the address by Barr about the purported anti-religious conspiracy, I think it is clear that Barr will obey his master Trump to fight that conspiracy, whose constituents match those who Trump thinks are against his actions as President (and they are).

Posted in 2020 Election, 2020 Primaries, Affairs of State, Criminal Justice System, Donald Trump, Freedom of Speech, Freedom of the Press, Freedoms, Humor, Mueller Report, Politics, Secrecy, Trump Administration | Leave a comment

Can the People of the World Stop Turkey?

Can the People of the World Stop Turkey?

I’m sure we are all alarmed the way Turkey is waging modern warfare on our allies, the Kurds in Northern Syria, who fought and captured ISIS warriors, for us!  Turkey is going to create a 30 kilometer (18.6 mile) security strip along Syria’s Northern border, apparently by bombing the civilian population, killing and injuring people and destroying their homes, shops, and jobs.  They are already refugees on the roads, with nowhere to go.  We want to examine here whether the countries of the world can exert enough pressure on Turkey to get them to stop what could turn out to be a partial genocide on the Kurds.  It certainly is ethnic cleansing from the Kurds’ own territory.  10,000 Kurds died in fighting ISIS.  The Kurds were also holding 10,000 ISIS devotees, who will likely be unleashed when the Kurds are attacked.

The other thing Trump said was heartless.  He said that we spent enough money on the Kurds, who had given 10,000 lives to perhaps save us 10,000 lives, and probably on the cheap, since the Kurds aren’t that well equipped.   That leads me to ask, did Trump sell them out for billions of dollars of Turkish defense contracts, like he did with the Saudis and Khashoggi?

Turkey has 3.6 million Syrian refugees that they plan to move into this border strip.  Are they just going to take the Kurds’ houses, possessions, and businesses?  So far, more than 60,000 people have been displaced.

Did Trump’s weaknesses encourage Turkey to launch this attack now?  I remember when Clinton’s impeachment started, that our ambassador to Iran did not give Sadam Hussein a strong message not to attack its Southern neighbor Kuwait, and Clinton appeared weakened, so Sadam occupied it in days.  Trump has been talking since the start of the year that he wanted to pull out of the Middle East, even without truces and treaties.  And now he appears weakened by impeachment.  Trump decided to withdraw, seemingly against military and State advice.

The US was selling Turkey our most advanced fighters, F-35s, but delayed selling them in April.  On the other hand, we are competing with Russia to arm Turkey.  We can still apply military equipment leverage on Turkey.

The population of Turkey is 82 million.  We copy things from Wikipedia.  70 to 80 % of those identify as Turks, and Kurds are 12% to 25% of the population.  Their price parity GDP is $2.27 trillion, with per capita $27,400.

Since 1984, in the southeast, Kurds have wanted their own republic of Kurdistan, or an autonomous region.  Turkey has more than 3.6 million refugees from Syria.

Turkey has been a NATO ally for 65 years.  Turkey was supposed to buy 100 F-35s.  So far, they have only 4, but they are still in the US.  The US dropped them from the program when they dealt to buy Russia’s S-400 air defense system.  The F-35s are stealth, and the US doesn’t want them examined by Russian systems.  

It’s tough to figure out what is going on in Turkey, since they persecute their journalists.  They say that they want the buffer zone, so that they can put their Syrian refugees there.  Sounds like they are copying Trump in not letting refugees into the US.  Human rights says that a half million people have been displaced in southeast Turkey by curfews.  That is a rather incomplete statement.  The Freedom Rankings have Turkey at 107th among countries, with scores out of 10 of 6.09 for Personal Freedom, 6.84 for Economic Freedom, and 6.47 for Human Freedom.  The Democracy Index has Turkey as 110th among nations.  They get an overall score of only 4.37, with 4.50 for Electoral Process, 5.00 for Government, 5.00 for Political Participation, 5.00 for Political Culture, and only 2.35 for Civil Liberties.  Oh, and we learned about Trump’s Twin Towers in Istanbul this week.  He doesn’t own them, but only supplies his name.

Since Trump withdrew our few troops there, how are we going to monitor anything?  From somewhere, today Trump pulled out that the Kurds did not help us with the Normandy landing.  How were they to get from the Middle East to the shores of northwest France?  I calculated that for a person to be 18 and fight at Normandy in 1944, they had to be born in 1926 or earlier.  That means that they are now 93 years or older.  So Trump thinks it is okay to punish almost all Kurds who are younger because the handful of old timers didn’t emigrate to America and enlist?  By 1926 we were excluding refugees again anyway, as I recall.  On top of that, in World War II, Turkey was neutral, and many Kurds were in Turkey.  It’s odd that Trump is siding with Turkey, when they weren’t in Normandy, either.

As far as boycotting Turkey financially, tourists there in 2018 were back to almost 40 million.  I alway feel uncomfortable visiting countries in which I don’t feel that I have freedoms, and in which I know there is not freedom or democracy for their people.  That is a much more direct boycott to understand than to try to find products from Turkey.

The US only has 5.5% of Turkey’s exports, despite what Trump implies.  About half go to the EU, and it is really up to them to figure out what a useful response is.  Turkey has $180 billion in Exports, and $234 billion in imports.  While the GDP is $2.27 trillion it is PPP.  Using it, the $180 billion in exports is 10.3% of the economy, so a boycott would be very impactful.  Even putting a Trump sized tariff on them would be impactful.  Germany is the biggest importer, at 9.6%, with the UK at 6.1%, the UAE at 5.9%, Iraq at 5.6%, the US at 5.5%, Italy at 5.4%, France at 4.2%, and Spain at 4%.  So far, we have only accounted for 40.8% of importers in this list.

California imports $718 million from Turkey, with 40.8% in Agriculture, 19.8% in Computers and Electronics, 11.8% in Transportation, 5.2% in Machinery, and 22.4% in Others.  The total is only 0.4% of Turkish exports.

Not only are California’s imports irrelevant, but Trump is already desperately backtracking from his threat to tame the Turkish actions.

Turkish tourism peaked in 2014 at 42 million, when it was the sixth most popular destination in the world (Wikipedia).  It then fell to 25 million in 2016.  That is a drop to 60% of the peak.  There were large terrorist attacks in 2016 at Ankara and Istanbul, which may have had impacts, as well as a failed coup, but tourism was already coming back in 2017.  At full tourism, I estimate that their yearly tourist income at about $32 billion.  As a fraction of the $180 billion in exports, it is 18%.

The 2018 leading sources of tourists to Turkey were Russia at 6.0 million, Germany 4.5 million, Bulgaria 2.4, UK 2.3, Georgia 2.1, Iran 2.0, Ukraine 1.4, Iraq 1.2, and Netherlands 1.0.  The total was 39.5 million.  The US wasn’t listed in the top 10, so again, we are not influential here, at less than 2% of tourists.

The State Department warning not only is from terrorist attacks, but says that “tens of thousands of individuals, including US citizens, have been detained for alleged affiliations with terrorist organizations based on scant or secret evidence, and grounds that appear to be politically motivated”.  US citizens have also been been prevented from departing Turkey.

Still, it is hard to sit back and watch yet another forced mass migration.  This time, the release or escape of ISIS fighters may also pose a problem again.  It seems the best bet is for Europeans to stop traveling to Turkey, and maybe boycott some goods.

Posted in Affairs of State, Donald Trump, Turkey | Leave a comment

In No Way Does Impeachment Reverse the Results of 2016

In No Way Does Impeachment Reverse the Results of 2016

  1. Everybody expects that Trump will remain President since 20 Senate Republicans are not going to vote for impeachment.
  2. Even if Trump’s reelection support drops to 35% and the Senate dumps him, Republican VP Mike Pence succeeds him.
  3. Pence then appoints a new VP, so in no way can Pelosi advance to the Presidency.
  4. Mike Pence will be a much less controversial Republican candidate in 2020 than Trump.
  5. Justice Neil Gorsuch is still on the Supreme Court for life.
  6. Justice Bret Kavanaugh is still on the Supreme Court for life.
  7. The 150 Federal court justice appointments of Trump will still remain on their benches for life.
  8. The Senate still remains 53-47 Republican.
  9. The Koch and fossil fuel oligarchs will still fund Republicans to deny climate change.
  10. The Senate can still appoint lifetime judgeships chosen by the Federalist Society.
  11. Republican Mitch McConnell is still Senate Majority Leader, who will still block anything that he doesn’t like.
  12. The midterm Democratic surge in the House is still at risk in the Presidential 2020 election.
  13. All of the regulations overturned or still in court will remain overturned.
  14. We are still out of the Paris Agreement.
  15. We are still out of the Trans Pacific Partnership.
  16. We have still lowered immigration and refugees and asylum seekers.
  17. Fox News will survive, as well as Rush Limbaugh, and the rest of the right web sites.  They will probably even be more popular.
  18. Trump’s budgets will still make deep cuts everywhere that the Congress will still have to ignore.
  19. Trump’s tax cut for the rich will still remain, along with its $2 trillion debt increase.
  20. If Trump does go, his Cabinet and 4,000 conflicted political appointees will still remain.
  21. If Trump does go, he will still be able to lead some of his political core.
  22. If Trump does go, all Republicans at all levels will stand a much better chance of election or re-election in 2020, because Democrats and Independents won’t be so motivated.
  23. If Trump does go, Pence will quickly end the China tariffs, and everybody will benefit. 
  24. If Trump does go, we will all benefit mentally for not having to deal with daily absurdities, insults, cruelty, and threats.
  25. If Trump does go, President Pence can have a weekly program of mental soothing and healing to help us recover from the Trump Sharkomania era.
Posted in 2016 Election, 2020 Election, 2020 Primaries, Affairs of State, Climate Change, Climate Science, Congress, Congressional Investigation, Donald Trump, Economies, Fossil Fuel Energy, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Immigration Ban, Immigration Policy, Impeachment, Kavanaugh, Mitch McConnell, Paris Climate Accord, Paris Climate Agreement, Travel Ban, Trump Administration, Trump Budget, Trump on Climate Change, Trump Tax Cuts, Trump Wall, US Oil, VP Pence, White House | Leave a comment

Rates of Emission Declines to Reach California’s Goals

Rates of Emission Declines to Reach California’s Goals

Estimates of rates needed to meet climate goals or GHG (greenhouse gases) reductions by 2030 and 2050 have come out.  These seem to be generated by simple mathematical methods, so we will try to make some of them explicit in this article.  Since the calculations are tedious, I will just present the results at the start.

The exponential rates of decline were:

4.34% from 2020 to 2030; then

5.51% from 2030 to 2050; or directly,

5.12% from 2020 to 2050.

The constant rates of decline were:

3.53% from 2020 to 2030; then

3.34% from 2030 to 2050; or directly,

2.62% from 2020 to 2050.

The simplest rates are generated by simple decay models for the emissions.  However, in practice, you don’t just turn things off, but you have to replace them with new energy sources, new energy uses, and new energy distribution networks.  So the models should really be growth models, not declining GHG models.  

Since transportation is the largest GHG source, this would be new renewables, hydro, nuclear, or highly efficient natural gas as resources.  The energy uses would be electric vehicles, plug in hybrids, hybrids, public transportation, or transportation reduction.  Throw into this mix new vehicle batteries, as well as batteries in energy production and storage.

The 30-46% growth in electricity sources involved in electrified transportation would have to be distributed by an expansion in large grid carrying capacity, and workload, all the way down to the local residential or business areas involved.  Those are starting to be modeled at the state level, but only by a minimal $3 million dollar grant.  Each industry involved is probably putting a lot more money into projections, but they need to be conjoined, and only partly proprietary.  At the same time, growing renewables and other clean energy is needed for replacement of other fossil fuel uses.

Anyway, back to the simple declining emission models to start.  We want to first model a linear declining model, as if we have fixed output production lines of energy saving devices.  If we start at time t=0 with N and end at t=T1 years, with to a P percent reduction, or PN, we must reduce N by 

D/T = (N-PN)/T1 per year.

We measure GHG emission in units of MMTCO2e, which stands for Million Metric Tonnes of CO2 equivalent.  A metric tonne is 1,000 kilograms, or about 2,200 pounds, or 1.1 English ton, since a kilogram is about 1.1 pounds.  (It would be much nicer if we called this with a simple common name.  I doubt if any climate scientist would want the unit named for them.  Maybe then it could just be called the ‘havoc’.) 

California decided to define their goals in terms of the GHG emissions in 1990.  (It would have been better if they had started at the scary 2000 Millennium.)  In 1990 California emissions were 431 havocs.  Today, and say at the start of 2020, we are at approximately 400 havocs.  The SB32 goal is 259 havocs in 2030, or a 60% reduction from 1990.  The 2050 goal is 86 havocs, or a reduction of 80% from 1990.  We are just going to calculate from 2020 to these dates, and their havoc goals.

Linear Reduction

Linear reduction is good if you set up the needed set of factories rapidly, but then keep steady employment and output over the period.

For the 2030 goal, D/T = (400-259)/10 = 141/10 = 14.1 havocs a year, linearly.  As a percentage of 400 havocs, that is a 3.525% reduction per year.  

If we went straight to the 2050 goal of 86 havocs from here over 30 years:

D/T = (400-86)/30 = 314/30 = 10.5 havocs a year, or 2.62% reduction per year.

The third option is to use the linear rate to the 2030 goal, and then restart at 2030 with a different linear rate.  At 2030, we are at 259, and reduce to 86, over the next 20 years.  Then

D/T = (259-86)/20 = 173/20 = 8.65 havocs a year, or a 3.34% reduction a year from the 2030 starting point of 259 havocs.

Exponential Reduction

Exponential reduction is useful if we first pick off the low hanging fruit, but then need to invest more time and cost in getting to the more difficult energy conversion tasks.

In this case, the rate of decline of the GHG is proportional to the amount of  GHG still being emitted.  This takes more clean energy conversions at the start, if possible, and fewer as time goes on.  Since we want to get rid of as much pollution as soon as possible, this produces less overall pollution.  Call C the coefficient defining the rate to amount ratio, the equation is:

DN/DT = – C N,

 This is a differential equation for N(T) as a function of time T, and its solution, where N0 is the starting amount, is:

N(T) = N0 exp( -C T), 

where exp is the exponential function, or the number e=2.718 raised to the power ( -C T)

N(T) = N0 e^(-CT).

We see that the starting condition when T=0, e^0 =1, and N(0) = N0.

As T goes to infinity, the exp goes to zero, so the N(infinity) = 0.

If we want to reach N(T1) = N1 at time T1, we can take the natural logarithm of the above equation:

ln( N1/N0) = – C1 T1.  Or, inverting the natural log and changing the sign

ln (N0/N1) = C1 T1.  C1 is then: 

C1 = (1/T1) ln (N0/N1).

2020 to 2030 with Exponential Decline

So, T=0 is 2020, and N0 =  400.  For the leg to 2030, T = 10 years, and 

N1 = 259.  Then C1 = (1/10 years) ln (400/259) = 0.4346/10 years,

C1 = 0.04346/year.  The time dependence is:

N(T) = 400 havocs exp( – 0.04346 T).

The rate of decrease lowers as time goes on, and is the derivative:

DN(T)/DT = – 400 x (0.04346) havocs exp( – 0.04346 T)

DN(T)/DT = – 0.04346 N(T).

So, the decrease ratio is (1/N(T)) DN(T)/DT = -0.04346, or a 4.34% decline each year over the previous year.

2030 to 2050 with Exponential Decline

If in 2030 we start a new rate of exponential decrease to reach the 2050 goal, it could be disruptive.  We evaluate that next, and then look at a smooth decrease from 2020 all the way to 2050.

At 2030, we have N1 = 259, called T=0 again, and in 2050, N2 = 86 with T = 20 years.  Then:

C2 = (1/20 years) ln(N1/N2) = (1/20) ln(259/86) = (1/20) ln(3.0116) = 1.1025/20 = 0.0551, or a 5.51% rate of decline year to year.

Direct 2020 to 2050 with Exponential Decline

We now go from N0 = 400 to N2 = 86, with T = 30 years.

C3 = (1/30 years) ln(400/86) = (1/30) ln(4.6512) = 1.537/30 = 0.0512, or a 5.12% rate of decline, year to year.

Summary

The exponential rates of decline were: 

4.34% from 2020 to 2030; then

5.51% from 2030 to 2050; or directly,

5.12% from 2020 to 2050.

The constant rates of decline were:

3.53% from 2020 to 2030; then

3.34% from 2030 to 2050; or directly,

2.62% from 2020 to 2050.

Since the 30 year plan decline rate is less than the 10 year decline from 2020 to 2030, that plan would miss the goals for 2030.

Clearly, a detailed integrated flow plan of hundreds of areas will not be summarized by any simple scheme as above.  The desire for smooth employment will probably push toward linear decline, especially with the higher initial rates of decline required with the exponential decay paths, and then the declines in employment.  However, the linear declines also emitted more greenhouse gases than the exponential curves which lie below them.

In the above cases, the smoother, longer range goals usually gave the lower values. 

In practice, we are in a 8 year period political see-saw, which is devastating to the planet.

If the rich and greedy fossil fuel oilgarchs dominate:  “Cry havoc, and let slip the dogs of war.”  Mark Anthony in Julius Caesar by William Shakespeare.

  

Posted in California Oil, California Power Mixes, Clean Energy, Climate Change, Climate Science, Donald Trump, Electric Cars, Electric Power, Energy Efficiency, EPA, Equivalent Electric Car Emissions, Fossil Fuel Energy, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Hybrid Cars, Renewable Energy, Solar Energy, Transportation, Trump on Climate Change, US Climate Mayors, Wind Energy | Leave a comment

Trump’s Best Known Jokes

Apparently, the Media, the Press, the American People, and Foreign Friends and Enemies have been misunderstanding how much Trump jokes around.  Trump can also keep his jokes hidden for years, and nobody can guess them, but those misled all appreciate that the joke is on them, and give it a hearty laugh, after it is revealed.  Oddly, Trump never says that he was just joking, but his obsequious backers always have to.

Here is Trump’s best joke:  “I will … Preserve, Protect, and Defend the Constitution of the United States”.

Here are the other best ones:

Trump University

Yes Melania, there is no chance that I will win.  You can live here forever.

What could go wrong buying all of the Atlantic City casinos?

Russia, if you are listening.  (Russia was listening and took this too seriously.)

China should start an investigation into the Bidens (Only Senator Marco Rubio got this joke.)

I never had anything to do with Russia (except Trump Tower Moscow)

I never knew (fill in the person’s name).  Maybe he or she just brought the coffee.

I will have nothing to do with my businesses while I am President.  (This gets tiresome after the hundredth time.)

Fake news.  (Ten thousandth time)

Witch hunt. (Thousandth time.)

(Fill in insulting nickname) (fill in any person’s name, except Putin.)

Sure, I will present my tax returns.

Oops, looks like I am being audited.

No, Melania never worked illegally.  News conference next week.

America is Closed.

Mexico will pay for the wall.

I have completely wiped out ISIS.  (10,000 possibly about to be abandoned in Syria.)

I am not a crook. (Oops, wrong President).  No Collusion, No Obstruction.  (Got it.)

I am a very stable genius.  (That contains three jokes).

Rick Perry made me do it!  (Good one, lol)

In my great and unmatched wisdom (today’s three jokes).

Many say I was in the top of my class.  (Mike drop.)

Till Death do us part. (Two times).

It was a Perfect Call.  (First person to call a call perfect.  The Perfect Joke.)

(The Washington Post says that there are now over 12,000 Trump untruths or possible jokes to choose from, since he became President.  That is too much for me to continue.)

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The Trump Apocalypse

The Trump Apocalypse

One thinks of the Apocalypse coming with its traditional four horsemen.  But with VP Pence calling on all countries to investigate the Democratic candidates, and all of the involved people, and all of the whistleblowers, and all of the sources of documents, and the 12 White House people necessary to listen to The Talk between Trump and Ukraine President Zelensky, this is now looking like Medusa and her head of a hundred snakes.  The idea of snakes was suggested by Trump himself.  The point of Medusa is that anyone who looked at her to ask any questions was immediately turned to stone, which describes Trump’s response to all subpoenas and requests for documents.  It also describes the response to this treasonous scandal of all Republicans, who have now been turned stone faced.

Of course there are four horsemen who were chosen to hand and head carry Trump’s Biden investigation demands around the world, along with threats of pressure to force foreign leaders to carry out these investigations and return some scandal that would please Trump.  I won’t jump to any conclusions until we hear some public testimony, and the judgement of experts in these areas.  

However, it is already apparent that Rudy Giuliani, Trump’s lawyer and unappointed State Department Potentate Extraordinaire, and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Chief of Conspiracy Theories on Clinton and Benghazi, are two of the leading horsemen.  They have carried the apocalyptic messages to Ukraine, Australia, Italy, the United Kingdom, and maybe France was mentioned.  Then again, Trump himself is the lead fifth horseman.  Then, there is VP Pence who has chosen to ride in lock step with Trump, but also asking all countries to follow their lead.  Finally, there is the conspiratorial oriented Attorney General William Barr, who is apparently totally in the dark, but who has been continually saddled up for the ride.  Apparently, many other horsemen are being dragged into the valley of political death with these charges of the far-right brigade.  (Apologies to Lord Tennyson.).  Remember, in the Mueller investigation of the Trump Campaign’s attempts to collude with Russia, there were more than 100 person-contacts attempted.

I wrote an article advising VP Pence to invoke the 25th amendment before this got out of hand, and to save himself, Republicans, and the country.  Unfortunately, after being dragged to the bus by Trump, Pence decided to crawl under the bus by himself.

Trump tried to publicly get China to investigate Hunter Biden’s investment company there.  But Trump prefaced it by implying what great pressure he could wield.  China is in many ways the World’s most growing country, with a proud and ancient history.  It had just lavishly and pompously celebrated its 70 years of Communism.  Trump greatly insulted them with his implied threat of great power over them.  Of course they declined, but in a countering way against Trump, by saying that the US would have to solve its Democracy problems by itself.

I, myself, feel insulted when Trump called House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff of Hollywood, California, “Shifty Schiff”.   Rep. Schiff is Jewish, and this slanderous nickname has the centuries old anti-Semitic connotation that Jews are not fair and honest businessmen.  Trump had previously insulted Rep. Schiff as “liddle’ Schiff” from Trump’s past pre-kindergarten days, when he bullied all of the smaller children, and undoubtedly all of the girls.  Trump’s insults match the five year old vocabulary that he has.  Maybe too many concussions from the kids who fought back.

But, I remember the old exhortation:  “If you don’t have anything nice to say about somebody, don’t say anything.”  Fat chance, when our Constitutional Government and Democracy is at stake.

But Trump has raised a crucial mathematical question.  If you double down every day, how many days does it take until you reach some sort of natural limit.  There are, after all, only 200 or so countries in the World to ask for assistance.  Two to the eighth power is 256, so he can’t keep this up for more than a week.  There are something like 4,000 political appointees, who Trump could get involved, or seek support from.  Two to the twelfth power is 4,096, so that would last about two weeks.  There are an increasing number of whistleblowers and leakers.  Many of the two million federal workers must be well aware that the cabinet and political appointees are violating the department rules.  If they double the leakers every day, since two to the 10th is 1,024, then two to the 20th is a million, and two million is two to the 21st.  That could at most last three weeks.   Perhaps, the number of voters who favor impeachment doubles every day.  Since that is already at half, that only adds another day.  Hold onto your horses, it’s going to be bumpy ride.

Trump never considers the reflexology and hypocrisy of his statements.  This was pointed out on Saturday by New York Times editorialist Alex Kingsbury, who said Trump has now issued an open invitation for all of the world’s countries to investigate any corruption by Donald Trump, including his worldwide financing and International Hotels, Resorts, Golf Courses, and hundreds of labelings.  By the way, the Trump family loans from international friends are at least 100 times Hunter Biden’s salaries.

The second whistleblower uses the same law firm as the first.  The firm has stated that they now have “multiple whistleblowers”.  The dictionary says that “multiple” can mean more than one, or more than two.  By the way, two whistleblowers is a flute duet, three is a trio, and four is a quartet.

Posted in 2020 Election, 2020 Primaries, Affairs of State, American Carnage, Clinton, Congress, Congressional Investigation, Constitution, Donald Trump, Humor, Impeachment, Mueller Report, Negotiations, Politics, Trump Administration, Trump Truthiness, Trump's Mental Health, VP Pence, White House | Leave a comment