One Million Global Deaths will Increase to 2.5 Million by Next Year

One Million Global Deaths will Increase to 2.5 Million by Next Year

The number of Global Deaths is almost at a Million, at 0.988 million today.  The IHME projection is for 2.518 million by January 1, or 2 and a 1/2 million by New Years, which is a global holiday.  Subtracting the current million lives lost, that will be another 1.5 million lives lost.

The current world masking is at 58%.  If we adopted masking at 95% that could be reduced to 1.814 million, saving 0.704 million or 704,000 lives.  That is 3 and a half times as many lives as the US has lost so far.

The estimated number of global infections is 1,965 thousand or almost 2 million, while confirmed infections are 250 thousand, giving a ratio of 7.86.  Graphically, the IHME shows that only 10% of global infections are detected, so the ratio is 10.  So we have two sources within the IHME, but they are very close numbers.

There are 32.7 million global cases so far.  Of course, over the year that the cases occurred, the ratio was different, but since I am naive, I would say that there are at least 10 x 33 million = 330 million global cases.  Out of the the world population of 7,800 million, this says that 4.2% of the world population has been infected.

On January 1, global daily deaths are projected to be 33,272 per day.  With 95% masking, this can be reduced to almost half, at 17,456 deaths per day.  The exact ratio is a reduction to 52.5%.  In looking at other countries, even an increase of masking to 80% will prevent most of the extra deaths. 

If typical infected are infectious for 14 days, and 2 million are infected each day, then 28 million people are going around infectious in the world.  Out of the 7,800 million world population, this is one out of every 280 people, or roughly, one out of 300.  

Recall, that the result for the US in the last article was 1 out of 200 are infectious.  I also did this for the IHME model for Europe and Central Asia which also includes Russia, and got the result of 1 out of every 400 is infectious on any given day.

If worldwide herd immunity occurred at 60%, the IHME says that there will be 15.7 million deaths.  If herd immunity occurs at 50%, there would be 13.1 million deaths.  And if herd immunity occurs at 40%, there would be 10.4 million deaths.

As I finish this, I am watching the White House nomination of Amy Coney Barrett for the Supreme Court, where the White House personnel and guests, including Chris Christy, and HHS Secretary Alex Azar weren’t masked, nor were the closely packed people waiting in line and closely seated for hours for Trump’s upcoming rally in Middletown Pennsylvania.

Since this whole series of articles is on Health Care, I cannot exclude pointing out that Justice Barrett will vote against the Affordable Care Act, removing complete health care from 23 million Americans, and subjecting 103 million Americans to losing health care for pre-existing conditions.  This could also include having caught the Coronavirus.

Posted in Coronavirus, COVID-19, Health Care, IHME Projections | Leave a comment

IHME Projects US Cases Are Actually Triple Those Measured at Now 7 Million

IHME Projects US Cases Are Actually Triple Those Measured.  US now at 7 million confirmed cases.  96,000 Lives Savable by Masking by January 1.

The Sept. 24 IHME projections are out, and are not much changed from last weeks.  However, we pursue further the actual number of Americans who have been infected, and make a crude and naive estimate of the number who may be infectious at the present time, and what that means to you.  Again, I am not an epidemiologist, so take these estimates with a grain of viral load.

First we start with the projections.  The number of US deaths recorded from the Coronavirus is currently 203,147.  The IHME projection for US deaths reached on January 1 is at 371,509, down slightly from a projected 378,000 last week, and 415,000 the week before.  Many of these occur in a holidays surge in the last weeks of December, based on what happened during the Southern Hemispheres winter.  This is due to in-person schools, cold weather forcing people indoors, the seasonal flu, and for us, students returning for the holidays and holiday celebrations.

The US is currently at only 48% masking.  The IHME estimate for 95% masking starting immediately would only result in an estimated total deaths of 275,062 by January 1, thus saving 96,447 American lives.  Since we are at at 203,147 current deaths, that would give 71,915 more deaths by January 1, instead of 168,362, with which to celebrate the New Year.  The almost 72,000 out of almost 170,000, which cuts down deaths to 43% of those without extra masking.  Comparison with other countries shows that even 80% masking gets rid of most of the extra deaths.  While masking reduces the risk of infection to the wearer to 1/3, social distancing reduces it to 1/10.  Outdoor cuts the rate down to 1/18 of that indoors.

Daily deaths on January 1 are currently projected at 3,052, but with 95% masking will be reduced to 1,185 deaths per day.  That is a reduction to 38.8% or about 40% to those with just current 48% masking.  Current deaths fluctuate around 1,000 per day.

Now we get into my naive use of the data.  The IHME estimated infections for Sept. 24 is 126,838.  Recent testing data of confirmed cases are around 40,000 per day for the US.  That means that the ratio of new cases to confirmed and counted ones is about 3.2 to 1.  Here is an even more naive assumption:  people who get infected, are infectious for 14 days.  They are actually maximally infective during their earliest days.  So if you have 40,000 x 3.2 = 127,000 new cases a day, times 14 days, gives 1.8 million infectious Americans on any given day.  With our 330 million population, that is one out of 180, or lets say, 1 out of 200 Americans is infectious on any given day.  When daily deaths triple by January 1, this will be 1 out of every 70 Americans.

Consequently, when you go to a political rally with say 5,000 unmasked, crowded, and yelling people, likely 25 infectious people will be there with you.  But wait, those surrounding you believe that the whole Coronavirus is a hoax, and have been acting in accord with that, exposing themselves every day without precautions, so the real number of infectious people could be many times that.

The state with the largest population (40 million) and almost tied with New York for projected Coronavirus deaths is California.  Currently we have 15,415 deaths from the Coronavirus.  The IHME January 1 projected deaths are 43,211, although this can be reduced to 28,073 by 95% masking, saving 15,133 lives.  That is almost as many as we have already lost!  Current masking in California is at 57%.  Without increased masking, we will lose 27,796 more, which can be reduced to 12,658 lives lost, a reduction to 45.5% of losses.

Now we stick our neck out again to note that on Sept. 24, there were an estimated 13,946 new infections, yet only about 4,000 are being confirmed a day in California.  That means that there are 3.5 times the number of actual cases as those confirmed.

Multiplying the 14,000 new infections a day times 14 days of infectiousness gives about 200,000 infectious Californians on any given day.  Out of 40 million Californians, that is 1/200 of the people you meet here are infectious.  This is the same number as for the US as a whole, and might in fact be built into the model.

We now estimate the fatality rate for the US from the model.  There are 200,000 US deaths out of 7 million confirmed cases giving an “apparent” rate of 2.9%.  Applying the US factor of 3.2 to give the real fatality rate gives 2.9%/3.2 = 0.90%, or slightly less than 1%.

We note that the IHME shows graphically the US detection rate at 23%, who’s reciprocal is 4.35, which would give the real fatality rate of 2.9%/4.35 = 0.67%.  We have used this in previous articles, but decided to try the other approach today.  Still, they are not that far apart, but we would of course prefer that the lower one be true.

Update:  Sept. 26.  Using the 4.35 factor of total cases over detected time 7 million detected cases give 30.4 million infected Americans.  Dividing by the US population of 330 million gives 9.22% of Americans infected.  Serology tests reported yesterday gave near 9% positivity or infection rate for the US, in good agreement with the IHME figures.

So what IHME essentially does is triple the probability of infection, but cut the fatality rate down to a third of the apparent rate.

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Two Hundred Thousand Deaths, and there is no October Surprise in IHME Projections

Two hundred thousand, and there is no October Surprise in IHME Projections.

The landmark of 200,000 deaths by Coronavirus is very important.  Some interviews with people still think that the number of deaths is only in the thousands, or ten thousand.  This gives them a definite number to ponder and remember.  It’s also important that it is almost going to double by January 1, due to escalating growth over the holidays, which we should act to avoid.

So we looked for an October surprise, which might appear by November 1 near Election Day.  There isn’t a noticeable one in the IHME projections..

We give a table of the present deaths for the US and for the four highest population and leading states, followed by their Nov. 1, Dec. 1, and Jan. 1 IHME projections.  This is the standard projection with US masking only at 45%.

State Present Deaths Deaths on Nov. 1 Deaths on Dec. 1 Deaths on Jan. 1
US 200,763 229,587 279,424 378,321
NY 33,090 33,974 36,203 43,857
CA 15,183 19,478 27,257 43,856
TX 15,227 17,965 21,260 29,319
FL 13,416 18,417 23,926 26,472

For Californians, however, there will be almost triple the number of deaths by January 1.

For Texans, they will almost double their deaths by January 1.

We also see that Florida will almost double its deaths by January 1.

 

Posted in 2020 Election, Coronavirus, COVID-19, Donald Trump, Health Care, IHME Projections | Leave a comment

Dr. Fauci and Data on Coronavirus Hospitalizations by Age, Race, and Conditions

Dr. Fauci and Data on Coronavirus Hospitalizations by Age, Race, and Conditions

 

Dr. Anthony Fauci gave a detailed lecture to the MIT Biology Course on the Coronavirus this morning.  Here is the link to previous speakers, and Dr. Fauci’s talk will appear in a few days.  Dr. Fauci has spent 36 years as the Director of the NIAID, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.  He has increased scientific research funding, dealt with HIV/AIDS treatment, and dealt with past Coronaviruses, SARS in 2002-3, and MERS.  The NIAID budget is $5.9 billion in 2020.  He has advised six Presidents over nine Presidential terms.

He repeated the range of herd immunity for the Coronavirus of 50-75%.  He noted that three vaccines are being tested, with 30,000, 44,000, and 60,000 subjects.  These started at the end of July.  He said that we will know if they are successful in November or December, and maybe in October.  They are looking for at least 50% effectiveness and also safety.

The data and independent judgements on vaccine trials are done by the Data and Safety Monitoring Board.  We don’t know what the data are yet.  If the results of the double blind studies have not been unmasked yet, how can the President know that they are favorable?

We don’t know if we have to revaccinate every year, like colds that come back every year, even if we have had them in the past.

In the Southern Hemisphere’s winter during April to August, their Coronavirus prevention measures led to an almost non-existent flu season.

Here are four of Dr. Fauci’s key data slides.

It is now considered that only 20% of those infected with Coronavirus are symptom free.  Diagnosing without a test gets more complicated during flu season, so get a flu shot.  This makes temperature screening look more useful.  Remember, that there are two to three days after infection when those infected are presymptomatic, but can still spread the Coronavirus

 

The number of hospitalizations per hundred thousand by age, mostly in ten year age intervals (note 50-64) is shown below.

 

The prevalence of conditions which can lead to complications from the Coronavirus is present in about 41% of American adults, of which 31% is from obesity, and 11% is from diabetes.  The number exceed the total of 41% since some people have more than one condition.

 

The number of hospitalization by race and ethnicity per hundred thousand is heavily weighted to Blacks, Hispanic, and Native American, by a factor of almost 5 (4.7) compared to Whites.  Asian Americans are hospitalized at 1.3 times Whites.

 

The number of deaths per hundred thousand by Race or Ethnicity show that Blacks are dying at 2.4 times that of Whites, and Latinos by 50% greater.  Asians are about the same as Whites.  There are many factors leading to this, such as minorities having more essential jobs contacting the public, possibly not being covered by health care, having more comorbidities, or receiving poorer health care. 

Today is one day after the United States reached 200,000 Coronavirus deaths.

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Trump’s Warp Speed Back to the Origin

Trump’s Warp Speed Back to the Origin

The guy who brags about founding the Space Force (echo, echo, echo).  The guy who pitches going back to the Moon after 54 years as sending men to Mars.  The guy who buys hundreds of millions of vaccine doses before approval (actually a good gamble) and names it Warp Speed.  The guy who builds state of the architecture Casinos and Towers.  Why on Planet Earth does he install Three Hundred Federal Judges and Three Supreme Court Justices who’s judicial philosophy is to interpret the Constitution as it was viewed when passed in 1789, two hundred and thirty one years ago!

What was so farsighted by those farmers and plantation and slave owners, without even including a woman’s right to vote, whose guns took a minute to load one single shot, that could be the guiding force of today.  Remember, that our Democracy preceded other Democracies, and did not benefit from centuries of experience.  From Trump’s singular point of view, it was still 71 years before the first golf tournament was invented, and only 25 years after the first 18 hole course was established.

Right now, Trump is stacking the Courts to limit and reverse Roe vs. Wade, which was ruled to allow abortion, in 1973.  This precedent has stood for 47 years.  Of Trump’s two leading candidate Justices, one is 48 and the other 52 years of age, so one was 1 year old, and the other 5 years old.  Yet, at least one is sure that the case was misdecided, something that has eluded the Supreme Court for 47 years?

Reinterpreting an ancient document by interpretations of the founders, rather than the realizations of the complexities of two hundred and thirty one years of experience and historical and modern development, is doomed to be an enormous failure.  Especially in the eyes of the innovative and supreme leader described in the first paragraph, who is the best that there has ever been in the 57 Presidential terms of this country.  I’m sure that Trump even golfs with the latest clubs and balls even out just this year, not relics from the 15th century, much less, last year.

This reinterpretation of the oldest, and Trump’s favorite book, the Bible, has led to over 200 Christian denominations in the US. 

Any sensible choice of a Supreme Court would be responding to a large array of valuable legal concepts and segments of our society, and over the years, ruling with the best of our ideas.  Making the entire Federal Judiciary and Court System with only one fixed philosophy going back twelve generations by the current 20 year term of each generation, is absurd.

Let’s take Trump’s favorite Second Amendment.  It was just recently reinterpreted to drop the first half of the sentence, the part about a well formed militia.  Any Originalist would immediately rejoin the two halves.  They also would immediately recall all guns, and replace them with Muskets that could only load and fire one ball a minute.  That would really save ten thousand lives a year.

By the way, the average lifetime back then was about 40 years.  The first case before the Supreme Court is Trump’s attempt to kill the Affordable Care Act, strip modern health care from 20 million enrollees, and strip coverage of those with pre-existing conditions.

Trump and his enabler, AG Bill Barr, have stretched the powers of the Presidential orders and Tweets far beyond the restraints of the Constitution, and far beyond ever imagined, even by the previous day’s commentators.  If there are two who are going to be bound by the Originalist Judges and Justices, it is the Trump-Barr bad boys.

You cannot imagine a greater contrast.  Trump spends every waking hour and probably every sleeping hour rewriting the past, present, and future to making himself the hero and originator of all that is good, and putting all of the blame for failures on this “enemies”.  He eventually makes everyone his enemies, and recipients of million dollar book advances.

So, Back to the Origin, at Warp Speed.

Posted in 2020 Election, Constitution, Donald Trump, Gun Control, Guns, Health Care, Humor, Mitch McConnell, Politics, Twitter | Leave a comment

Global Deaths Approach a Million, 2.7 Million Projected for January 1

As Global Deaths Approach a Million, 2.7 Million Deaths are Projected for January 1.

Global deaths today are 958,000, or 96% of a million.  The IHME Sept. 18 projections for January 1 are 2.667 million deaths.  With 95% mask wearing, that can be reduced by 0.730 million to 1.937 million.

Compared to present deaths of 0.958 million, there will be 1.709 million more deaths by January 1.  With 95% masking, that will be reduced to 0.979 million more.  That is 57.3% of those without more masking, or a saving of 43% of the lives to be lost.

Global deaths per day will reach 33,625 on January 1 with present 59% world masking, but that can be reduced to 19,699 a day with 95% masking, a reduction of 41%.

This week’s IHME projection for deaths on January 1 is 111,000 lower than last week’s.  The deaths saved by 95% masking on January 1 has increased to 730,000 this week from 715,000 last week.

We present leading countries in the number of deaths projected by IHME for January 1, the number of deaths expected with masking, the number of lives saved by masking, and the percentage of current masking.

 

Country Present Deaths Projected Deaths Deaths with Masking Lives Saved Current Masking
India 86,752 625,165 430,587 194,578 68%
US 199,481 378,321 263,484 114,837 46%
Brazil 136,532 170,072 159,828 10,244 69%
Mexico 73,258 139,894 134,302 5,592 81%
Russia 19,349 98,182 30,940 67,242 33%
UK 41,866 93,429 65,566 27,863 43%
France 31,257 88,528 74,290 14,238 58%
Italy 35,707 67,687 53,171 14,516 61%
Spain 30,495 65,921 64,912 1,009 92%
Iran 24,301 62,476 36,777 25,699 53%
Turkey 7,506 54,434 49,362 5,072 73%
Philippines 4,984 52,979 50,905 2,074 89%
Colombia 24,039 50,579 46,667 3,912 88%
Peru 31.369 44,594 44,415 179 91%
Japan 1,508 39,447 24,730 14,717 85%
Iraq 8,555 29,748 14,982 14,766 42%
S. Korea 373 29,469 24,079 5,390 90%

Clearly, it is hard to imagine Japan or S. Korea rapidly accelerating deaths in December with their high masking percentages.  The model might need some revisions here.

In many projections, you can see that present high masking percentages lead to smaller gains with increasing masking to 95%.  It is also clear that even progressing to 80% mask wearing reduces most of the new fatalities.

Posted in Coronavirus, COVID-19, Health Care, IHME Projections | Leave a comment

The US Reaches 200,000 Coronavirus Deaths. IHME Projects 180,000 More by January 1.


Tomorrow, the US should reach 200,000 Coronavirus Deaths.  IHME Projects 180,000 More by January 1.  63% of those can be saved by 95% masking.

Fortunately, the Sept. 18, weekly IHME projected deaths on January 1 have dropped 37,000, from 415,000 last week to 378,000 today. 

While 200,000 have died by today in the US, another 180,000 could die by January 1.  Present US masking is only at 45%.  With 95% masking, 115,000 of those lives, or 63%, could be saved.  Daily deaths will rise to about 3,000 deaths per day on January 1.  With complete masking, they will drop back to about 1,000 a day.

In the US the model estimate of detected cases is still only 22%.  There are only 230 tests per 100,000.  This doesn’t agree with Trump’s claim of 100 million tests.

US mask wearing is 45%.  California and Florida have mask wearing in the 55%-59% bin, and other Southern states are 45% to 49%.

On January 1, the Percent infected in some key states will be:  CA and FL, 13.5%-16.4%; Texas and Southern states 19.5%-22.4%; NY, NJ, and LA, > 25.5%.

If herd immunity requires 65% infected, there will be 1.3 million deaths. If 50% are infected, there will be 1.0 million deaths.  If only 40% are infected, there will be 0.82 million deaths.

We show the leading States in Present Deaths, Projected Deaths, Deaths with 95% Maksing, and the Lives Saved by Masking.  They are ordered by Projected Deaths on January 1.  California, Texas, Michigan and Virginia have dropped a lot in projected deaths from last week.

State Present Deaths Projected Deaths With Masking Lives Saved
NY 33,081 43,857 35,511 8,346
CA 15,017 43,856 28,340 15,516
TX 15,051 29,319 20,510 8,809
FL 13,287 26,472 23,384 3,088
NJ 16,064 22,710 20,487 2,223
IL 8,672 15,523 9,952 5,571
PA 7,940 14,703 9,969 4,734
MA 9,295 13,743 10,745 2,998
GA 6,599 12,813 8,594 4,219
OH 4,612 11,121 6,056 5,065
NC 3,235 10,581 5,697 4,884
AZ 5,451 9,388 6,812 2,576

The top state for lives saved, California, is 13.5% of the total of lives saved.  The four largest population states at the top of the table account for 31.1% of the lives saved.

Posted in Coronavirus, COVID-19, Health Care, IHME Projections | Leave a comment

Trump’s Three Stolen Supreme Court Positions

Trump’s Three Stolen Supreme Court Positions 

It is Supremely Ironic that Trump’s three Supreme Court Positions to the highest Law and Order Court in the land, will all occur by acts of thievery, largely by Mitch McConnell, with Trump’s collusion.  

A half day after the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Trump is saying that he must flex his powers and nominate a new Justice, despite being 45 days before the Presidential election.  This is because the people who elected him demand it, despite him not even achieving a majority of voters.  Trump’s choice will be a maximal display of using Presidential powers to get himself reelected.  Instead of choosing the best Justice to serve 45 years, he will clearly be choosing the one to get him the most votes in the next 45 days. 

Trump’s only recognition and honoring of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg so far is a tweet written by somebody else.  I have a beef with that.  The author called RBG a Titan.  You don’t compare one of the three religious Jewish Justices to a Pagan god.  That clearly violates the Second Commandment.

Trump may choose a Conservative, anti-abortion woman Justice, in order to both enhance his Evangelical and Catholic vote, and his sinking support among women.  Ginsburg also supported gay marriage, and LGBTQ employment rights.  Yet, for 45 years, the appointment would be like that of Justice Clarence Thomas, an African American Justice, who shows no concern for African American rights.  It would also be an insult to RBG, who was the leader in establishing women’s rights under the law.

The thievery of the first and third appointments is obvious, the First stolen by McConnell, although vacant for eight months before an election, and verified stolen by McConnells reverse and hypocrisy yesterday in making an appointment with only 45 days to go, which is the Third theft.

The Second theft was appointing an alleged sexual assaulter, shoved through by a rushed and minimal investigation of only one charge by the White House.  Later, a second accuser came forward, who was known but not investigated by the White House.  It’s almost enough to drive one to drink Beer, Beer, and more Beer.

It’s sad that on a day at which the United States has reached 200,000 deaths from the Coronavirus, the Nation’s attention is now being deflected to a Supreme Court appointment.  This helps Trump enormously, but bodes ill to another 215,000 Americans projected to die by January 1.  The crucial holiday season will be an exponential explosion of deaths unless we have strong leadership in prevention.

This Gang of Three Trumpers will be meeting, agreeing, and judging together in lockstep for decades.  Each ruling out of step with mainstream America will be mourned for decades as a legacy of Trump Thievery.

Posted in 2020 Election, Donald Trump, Equal Treatment Under the Law, Kavanaugh, Mitch McConnell, Supreme Court | Leave a comment

Trump’s Possible Outlooks on the Supreme Court Opening

Trump’s Possible Outlooks on the Supreme Court Opening

While Mitch McConnell had already made it clear that he would fill a  Supreme Court opening, even in an election year, he reiterated it again today, when the Ruth Bader Ginsburg position opened up.  But Mitch is not Donald Trump.  Let’s look at this from Trump’s point of view.

Trump is already running on his selling his great accomplishment of appointing two Supreme Court positions, even though one was an accused sexual harasser, who also blew his top at the job interview before the Senate Judiciary Committee.  Furthermore, Trump tied his reputation to the Kavanaugh appointment by running a very fast and very limited investigation.  

Trump’s other appointment is looked on by many as a stolen appointment since it occurred in February of an election year, and Senate consideration of Obama’s nominee was completely blocked by McConnell.  The Justice Department follows a rule of not interfering into an election within two months, but this opening was eight and a half months before an election.  Today’s opening is 46 days, or only a month and a half before an election.  So, Trump would appear as much of a hypocrite as McConnell and all Republican Senators by not leaving it until the next Presidential term.  If Trump is as confident of winning as he claims he is, then why not leave it until his next term.

The Supreme Court is already at 5 Conservatives and 3 Liberals.  No matter who makes the next appointment, it will remain a Conservative court, so there is no urgency.

But Trump’s reasoning goes much deeper, as he was not counting on this opening.  One of his main campaign themes was to fill the RGB position next Presidential term, when she would retire.  If he fills the position now, some religious Republicans who support him solely on ending abortion rights, but detest his sinful behavior, have no further reason to vote for him.

Trump’s two lists of potential Supreme Court nominees are carefully chosen from swing states, and special demographic groups.  Once he chooses his nominee, all of that extra support is lost.

Trump needs the Senate to remain Republican to back his future judicial appointments, to make more tax cuts, to approve his cuts to agencies, and to cut out more regulations.  Yet making swing state Senators vote for his nominee puts them and his Republican Senate in jeopardy.

Justice Ginsburg was a champion for women’s rights and minority rights.  Any Conservative that Trump appoints, will be contrasted against RGB, and found solely wanting.  This will seriously affect Trump’s efforts to garner votes from the vast number of Independent and minority voters.

So Trump has at least six considerations to withhold filling the position until his next term.  He is working really hard to win re-election, which he has been campaigning for since the day he was first elected.  Why risk blowing his chances for an extra position on an already Conservative court?  What’s in it for Trump?  We know from his past, that he really doesn’t care about removing abortion rights anyway.

We haven’t even considered that Trump has a abominable record in vetting candidates.  Another failure and whitewash would bring up his previous controversial Supreme Court appointment, and all of his failed cabinet and White House staff appointments.

Of course, playing it safe and sane is not a choice that Trump makes.  So all of this may prove to be irrelevant tomorrow.

Posted in 2020 Election, Donald Trump, Kavanaugh, Mitch McConnell, Politics, Supreme Court, Swing States, Tax Laws, Trump Administration, Trump's Logic, White House | Leave a comment

Questions About Trump’s Vaccination Schedule and Masking

Questions About Trump’s Vaccination Schedule and Masking

Trump had a news conference today about the vaccine question, with his distribution General, and his radiologist and “Fake” virus advisor, Dr. Scott Atlas.

Trump said that there would be 100 million doses by January, hundreds of millions a month after that, and everybody with doses by April.

I was taught with stated government needs for weapons, to be suspicious of round numbers.  What could be rounder than 100,000,000, doubly repeated even?

Trump also didn’t specify which vaccine or vaccines would be approved by when, and contribute to the 100 million.  Convenient.

The notice that the CDC sent to Governors showed about 20 million doses by each Moderna and Pfizer, making 40 million doses by January, which can vaccinate 20 million, with two doses each.

The vaccinations need two doses each, a month apart, and then two weeks to build up defenses.  That is a full month and a half to establish full immunity.  Trump didn’t state when a vaccine would be approved, or when the month and a half for immunity would be accomplished.  The IHME projected deaths show a sharp increase because of winter and maybe holiday behavior in December.  A false public perception that they are now “saved” in November and December could increase the infection and deaths rates.  

The number of projected deaths between November 1 and January 1, 2021, is 155,000, or 2,541 a day, double or triple recent days.  So really rapid distribution is very important, not the number available at the end of the period.  This is also important for the six weeks needed for immunity to take hold.  So a promise of January 1 is really too late for saving many lives, even if the most vulnerable and health care workers are vaccinated first.

The CDC estimate of 20 million people covered, is only 6.1% of the US population.  Trump’s statement of 100 million doses by January would cover 50 million people, or 15% of the American public.  Another 200 million in January would cover another 30%, and in February another 30%, and in March another 30%, so essentially the  country is really vaccinated and mostly immune by the start of April, as claimed.  But that is with 200 million a month.  In fact, Trump was talking about manufacturing, not actual distribution, which is much more involved, requiring hospitals and medical facilities for vaccine storage.

The math adds up, but the Trump administration has never delivered on any of its claims.  Yesterday, Trump said that almost 100 million Coronavirus tests have been performed. That is 7 and a half months into the pandemic, and only covers a third of the number of Americans, who need more than just one test over time.  Also, we now find that politicos in HHS put the advice on the CDC website that people should not get tested unless they had symptoms, even if they had contact with an infected person.  That was corrected today on the CDC website.  It could have only been set initially to cut down the number of detected cases to please Trump.  It certainly would have spread the Coronavirus by the presymptomatic and Asymptomatic, which are now known to be responsible for 35% of the infections.

Another trick that Trump has used, is if he says a certain number by January, he never says January 1, and he actually could mean by the end of January.  Yet when Trump wants to force negotiations, he clearly specifies a definite date, often just two weeks in the future.  That is a trick to get his way, since real negotiations take time.  We note that he is going to shut down TikTok, but not until after the election.

Yesterday, Trump said that everybody could get a vaccine, “if they want one”.  Trump doesn’t want to impinge on any of his contrarian and conspiratorial followers, and those that are taught not to trust the government.  Trump only reinforces them every day when he holds rallies without social distancing and without masking, with yelling enthusiasts, for hours, violating small group size restrictions, and even indoors now.  It’s what the President does, not what the CDC experts, Dr. Fauci, or the one million physicians in the United States say that counts to Trump’s followers.  

Personally, I don’t feel safe walking around knowing that 20% of the public, often Trump followers, are walking around, who also don’t mask or social distance or avoid infecting situations, or test, or who won’t stay home if sick.  I hope that businesses and institutions like schools and governments require vaccinations for their workers or attendees.

Nobody has yet asked, will Trump take one of the vaccines himself?  Remember, Trump doesn’t need to wear a mask, since he is protected by the Secret Service, who tests anybody who gets near him.  Also, Trump will have Secret Service protection for the rest of his life.  Remember, Trump claims to have taken hydroxychloroquine for two weeks, even when it was known to have caused heart complications, and was not approved by the FDA.  It would really be suspicious if he did not take the vaccine.

Mask wearing by 95% would save 116,000 American lives by January 1, instead of just limping along with the current 45% of Americans who wear masks.  Yet, we now know that masks protect the wearer, cutting the risk down to 1/3 of what it would be without a mask.  Dr. Redfield, Director of the CDC, said this under oath to Congress yesterday, yet it is still not on the CDC website.  In a day or two, we are going to reach 200,000 useless American deaths by the Coronavirus.

It was just revealed that in mid-April, the Trump Administration considered delivering 650 million masks to every household, but it was vetoed by the White House, so as “Not to Start a Panic”.   How many lives would that have saved?   Trump was asked about this at his press conference today, and he switched the subject to a rant on the Post Office.

Trump committed $13 billion to rebuilding the electrical grid and the pharmaceutical industry of Puerto Rico, three years after it was destroyed by hurricane Maria.  The political motivation is to get support from Puerto Rican voters who moved to Florida.  The reasons that I am including this, is that Trump is blatantly using his government position to buy votes, Trump and McConnell won’t give $25 billion to aid vote counting and making a fair election, and California needs tens of billions for the Coronavirus setbacks and the apocalyptic fire season.

It would have been so much more reassuring, if Trump had had any of the government experts give the announcement and reassurances.

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