This summer we saw that nature does not go gentle into that good night.
The gentle global mean sea level rise predictions in the Fourth National Climate Assessment Intermediate case are 1.1 feet to 2050, but then they sharply increase to 3.3 feet by 2100, and 9.2 feet by 2200. The US West Coast gets an additional 2-3 feet in Relative Sea Level rise by 2100. But the destruction of floods only needs to occur once, for a few hours, when rarer conditions coalesce. In the do-nothing projection RCP 8.5, Atmospheric River days are expected to increase 50% to 600% by 2100. This allows a possible flood down the Laguna Canyon. Note the river delta shape of the downtown area. Add daily high tides, related storm surges, cliff undercutting, steep hill saturation, only clogged Coast Highway transport with a flooded Canyon, flood downed power lines, and you have a really good disaster movie. So, write this off, except Newport Beach had floods in 1969, 1978, 1980, 1983, 1992, 1995, 1998, and 2005. We still do not have sufficient drainage under the Coast Highway to prevent a flood.
Of course, beach property and Laguna Businesses are highly valuable, and often get rebuilt or remodeled. As long as they have flood insurance, they can be repaired or rebuilt. So flood scenarios are not going to drive them away or lower their values. However, this summer’s catastrophic storms could cost up to $200 billion. There is little source for funding the flood insurance, since many who are required to buy it, do not. The amount of coverage is limited to $250,000, and full payment is not guaranteed. There is also little allocation in FEMA aid.
The world has, so far, only warmed a fraction of that expected by 2100, and the sea has only risen a fraction of that expected by 2100. The year 2100 is a very, very, long way off (actually, 20 more Presidential terms). And we haven’t had much flooding, so why bother?
Finally, our Congressman, and the Trump Administration, and the dominant Republican Congress, do not even believe in warming, or in fossil fuels as the cause. They have rewritten government websites, and silenced scientists attending meetings. They are retiring or reassigning government scientists. They are decreasing climate science funding or clean energy funding wherever it may be found. They have no White House Science Advisor, and nobody in the White House Office of Science. So, soon, we may hear nothing more about climate change. Except from all the, now free, climate scientists who they have dismissed.
