The Math of the Democratic 2020 Primary
The 2020 Democratic primary is designed to elect a candidate, with only pledged delegates on the first ballot. They also will include mail-in ballots on State caucuses. There will also not be any bias from the Democratic Central Committee.
The total number of delegates will be 4,532. These are distributed based on how Democratic States and districts are. Typical districts will have 4 or 5 delegates. All states, will distribute district and State delegates on a proportional basis. Also, all candidates with less than 15% support in a district or state will be dropped as non-viable.
The first ballot at the convention will only involve the 3,768 pledged delegates, holding back the 764 unpledged or super delegates, until the second and later ballots. In case the choice is made on the first ballot, the unpledged delegates will be added in, since there won’t be any more ballots. Half of the pledged 3,768 is 1,884, so 1,885 is enough votes to win on the first ballot. Half of the total 4,532 is 2,266. So if the leading candidate gets between 1,885 and 2,266, the supers still don’t vote, since it would be embarrassing to possibly pick a candidate with less than half of the total delegates. If no candidate gets 1,885 on the first ballot, then the superdelegates can vote on later ballots.
The 764 superdelegates are 20.3% of the amount of the pledged delegates, or about 1/5th. The superdelegates are 16.9% of the total delegates, or about 1/6th.
The website www.thegreenpapers.com/G20/ gives all of the data for each state, down to the number of district delegates. From that site, we list, in order, all of the 15 states with more than 100 delegates.
California. 495
New York. 270
Texas. 262
Florida. 248
Illinois. 184
Penn. 176
Ohio. 153
Michigan. 147
New Jersey. 128
Virginia. 124
N. Carolina. 122
Georgia. 120
Mass. 114
Washington. 107
Maryland. 102
We point out the current projections of how many of the election of delegates will be determined at the end of each month in 2020. The determination is incomplete as several states have not yet set a primary or caucus date.
The four February primary and caucus states are 4.1% of total delegates. After Super Tuesday on March 3, 2020, 36.8% or 1,385 pledged delegates will be chosen. California has 16.5% of the pledged delegates. By March 19, the last primary of March, 64.6% or almost 2/3 of pledged delegates will be chosen. By April 28, 76.1% or 3/4 will be chosen. By May 19, 80.6% or 4/5 will be chosen. The last primary on June 16 will give 86.8% of the delegates. This sequence will total 100% when the other states firm up primary dates, including New York and Georgia.
