March 14, Risks of The Grim Coronavirus Reaper
I don’t know where models came up with a 100 million Coronavirus infections, or a half million deaths. So I hunted for age data, and presented immunosuppressive data yesterday. Fortunately, KFF.org (Henry J Kaiser Family Foundation) used surveys that interviewed to find out who had been told by doctors that they have such vulnerable or suppressant conditions, along with their ages, and locations. They then projected the number of severely vulnerable people, starting at age 60. Later, I will concentrate on those in the more vulnerable 70s, or over 80 plus people. I will also look at causes of current deaths in the US, in Europe, and in poorer countries, often from the same vulnerabilities.
Their headline is that “About 4 in 10 Adults in the US Are at Greater Risk of Developing Serious Illness if Infected with Coronavirus.” This does not mean every adult has a 41% chance of a serious illness, but that people with age and immunosuppressive problems combined form 41% of adults. 105 million of adults are at higher risk. 72% of them, or 76.3 million, are age 60 or older. The remainder are age 18-59.
Of those at higher risk, 6 million are uninsured. This breaks down as 3.9 million adults under 60, and 1.8 million aged 60-64. At age 65, they are covered by Medicare, often supplemented with other plans.
By State, KFF gives the percent of adults over 60 at higher risk, and their numbers.
In California, it is 72.6%, or 8.3 million. Under 60, it is 13.9% or 3.1 million.
In Washington State, it is 74.7%, or 1.7 million. Under 60 it is 14.2% or 590,000.
In Florida, it is 74.9% or 6.0 million. Under 60 it is 17.9% or 2.0 million.
In D.C., it is 71.3%, or 127,000 adults. Under 60, it is 11.4% or 51,000 adults.
Looking at the share of all adults at risk, ranges from 31% in D.C. to 51% in West Virginia.
In Washington State it is 40%, in California it is 37%, and in New York it is 40%.
The 1.3 million people living in nursing homes are particularly at risk.
The surveys analyzed were from the BRFSS, or the 2018 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System.
From the Italian Coronavirus data, it seems that over 80 and 70’s are the most at risk. We look at the table of the population over 60 in sets of five years, and to 85 and over. The data are from July 1, 2018
| Age Group | Male Percent | Female Percent |
| 60-64 | 9.73 | 10.6 |
| 65-69 | 8.03 | 9.05 |
| 70-74 | 6.21 | 7.19 |
| 75-79 | 4.14 | 5.12 |
| 80-84 | 2.59 | 3.54 |
| 85 and over | 2.33 | 4.22 |
The point that I am examining is what the number at risk is if we consider 70 and over instead of the wider 60 and over. I cannot of course do this accurately, but just get an indication. The study also did not take into account that in Italy, male deaths were 80%, and females 20%. I don’t know why this was, but maybe it was related to smoking. I have to leave this up to experts whether to include this.
The sum of those in the 60’s is for males, 17.76%, and for 70 and over is 15.27%. The total over 60 is 33.03%. If over 70 is the dominant risk, it is 46% of the males over 60 group. So the risks may be only a half of the over 60 group. For women, the 60s is 19.65%, and over 70 is 20.07%. The total over 60 is 39.72%. If over 70 is the dominant risk, it is 50.5% of the over 60 group. Since I am only an amateur, don’t attach any importance to my analysis, it is just a “hunch”.
Today, the worldwide total is 156,396, passing a 150,000 mark. Worldwide deaths are 5,833. Recovered cases are near 74,000 which is near a half of the total.
The US has 2,951 with 57 deaths. Subtracting the confined ship cases of 66, give 2,885 land cases. Yesterday this was 2,108, giving an increase of 777. The increase ratio is 777/2108 = 36.9%, in the usual range.
California cases today are 368, an increase of 86 over yesterday’s 282. The increase ratio is 86/282 = 30.5%.
Of the 57 US total deaths, 40 are in Washington, 5 in CA, 3 in FL, 2 in NY, and ones elsewhere.
It seems that the only saviors would be a present or future anti-viral medication, or a rushed and not completely tested vaccine. It would probably take an enormous volume to list all of the mistakes made in the US mess-up with the still lacking tests, and in the slowness of response despite the dire predictions. All of this was and is buried in secrecy, and may well remain that way. It is a waste of time to correct Trump and his minions’ promises, since they all turn out to be false. The dense and long line of returning passengers from Europe and elsewhere waiting to be screened is clearly a virus multiplier and a terribly instituted idea. They waited in line for many hours.
