April 13. Restarting Chaos: State Coalitions versus Trump

Restarting Chaos:  State Coalition versus Trump

Trump assigns problems to States, when he fails to solve them.  But initially, he grabs all of the power that he can, and now, governing by a single tweet alone, he has claimed the sole “absolute” power to restart the entire country.  He has said that he wants to do it all on the same day, undoubtedly to be celebrated by a ticker-tape parade with marching bands.  Yet the CDC Director says we must study this county by county.  This, despite never having the nerve to tell any states that they had to self quarantine.  He said that he loved the Constitution so he wouldn’t do it.  The next day he claimed that he had the “Absolute Power” to do it.  Trump’s tweet that he would do it very soon is probably a response to New York’s Governor Cuomo forming a NY-NJ-CT-RI-PA-MA-DE regional coalition.  When the Coronavirus resurges, Trump will of course blame it on the states again.  The coalition is forming its own team of experts and perhaps predictions.

There will also be a Western coalition consisting of California, Oregon, and Washington.

Trump still controls, without public or inspector general oversight, the $2.2 trillion aid bills, and can starve rogue states.

Here is Gov. Cuomo’s smart restart outline.

Here is a main regional problem, the dates of peaking in this region differ by 18 days — two and a half weeks.  It’s every greater nationwide.  

Here is a small table of peaking dates of the US and these states, for hospital beds, and deaths, which follow a day or two later.  In New York, the deaths peak has formed a half week plateau, and Dr. Sanjay Gupta says that deaths can follow admissions by a week or two.

We are using today’s April 13 IMHE forecast, which unfortunately raised the eventual total deaths to about 69,000, up from 62,000 before.  By May 1, about 51,400 deaths will have occurred, leaving a gap of 17,400 left.  IMHE does three day averages over 19 regions around Wuhan China, Spain, and Italy.  It will also be modeling a restart with virus second waves.  They say that the restart should be at only 0.03%.

New York’s peak five days ago, will lead to 14,542 total deaths, and by May 1, almost all, 14,512, will have occurred.

Add to this chaos Trump’s complaining about Dr. Fauci, who only agreed with the obvious statement, that had we taken action earlier, fewer people would have died.

CNN has just reported that the Los Angeles Model shows that 95% of residents will be infected if the stay-at-home order is dropped now.

Takeaways from Trump’s three hour news conference:  The President has both UNIVERSAL Power, and TOTAL Authority over the States, in addition to his previously claimed Absolute Powers.  He said that he would provide a document on that since a newsman asked about it.  VP Pence seemed to imply that states surrendered that when they signed onto a national emergency declaration, which only got them $5 billion in total.  The President is forming three or more committees to restart different areas of industry, composed of leading CEOs, who haven’t been contacted yet.  They will be announced by the weekend.  Dr. Fauci had to wait for three hours to say in one sentence, that medical opinions will have an input to the decision.  Later, Trump implied that he had so cowed the Governors and Mayors who were dependent on him for equipment and funds, that they would cooperate without the President needing to use his Superpowers.  He also said that regional coalitions sounded reasonable.

CNN has reported what share of national essential jobs are performed by African Americans:

Here are the hopeful declining hospitalization slides from New York Gov. Cuomo’s news conference today.

There is always a question whether the decrease in deaths is just the weekend effect.