IHME Projections With Universal Face Masks Cuts US Deaths by 33,000

IHME Projections With Universal Face Masks Cuts US Deaths by 33,000.

The June 24 IHME projections now include the reductions in deaths which would occur if 95% of us wore face masks.  This is now, unfortunately a political issue, or one for those without culture.  This post just concentrates on the numbers.  The IHME projections for deaths by Oct. 1 have now reduced from 201,000 to 179,000, or by 22,000 from earlier.  With 95% face mask usage, that could be reduced to 146,000, saving 33,000 lives.  There are currently 122,000 US Coronavirus deaths.  So this is a difference of 57,000 more deaths by Oct. 1, or 0nly 24,000, which is only 42% as many.

We show the top 18 states by deaths, their projected deaths with presently planned social distancing, and projected deaths with 95% mask wearing.  Five states stand out as greatly reducing deaths with mask wearing.  These include the three largest states, California (40 million population), Texas (29 million), and Florida (21.5 million), as well as Georgia and Arizona.  California now requires mask wearing, and the governors of Texas and Florida strongly recommend it.  Texas will not allow Houston or Harris County to require it.

California has 5,715 deaths, and is projected to rise to 11,631, which can be reduced to 8,745 with mask wearing, saving 2,886 or about 3,000 lives.

Texas has 2,270 deaths, and is projected to rise to 13,736, which can be reduced to 5,582 with mask wearing, saving 8,154 or about 8,000 lives.

Florida has 3,281 deaths, and is projected to rise to 15,393, which can be reduced to 7,523 with mask wearing, saving 8,140 or about 8,000 lives.

Georgia has 2,698 deaths, and is projected to rise to 6,614, which can be reduced to 4,269 with mask wearing, saving 2,345 lives, or about 2,300.

Arizona has 1,467 deaths, and is projected to rise to 5,687, which can be reduced to 3,195 with mask wearing, saving 2,492 lives, or about 2,500.

Mask wearing in these five states can save 24,017 lives alone, which is 73% of the 33,000 lives saved nationwide by mask wearing.   Of the 24,000, 21,000 possible lives saved are in the four Republican states, which are afraid to mandate and enforce mask wearing.

In world country projections, the worst is Brazil, with 53,830 deaths, and a projection of 166,000.  If they have 95% masks, the projection is reduced to 147,000, saving 19,000 lives.  Iran has 9,996 deaths, but a projection of 52,000, which can be reduced to 28,000 saving 24,000 with mask wearing.  Mexico has 24,324 with a projection of 88,000, which can be lowered to 80,000 with mask wearing.

The IHME projections used to have very large 95% error bars.  Now there are only the curves given.

Here is the table of States, Current Deaths, Current Projections to Oct. 1, and Projections with 95% mask wearing.