Two hundred thousand, and there is no October Surprise in IHME Projections.
The landmark of 200,000 deaths by Coronavirus is very important. Some interviews with people still think that the number of deaths is only in the thousands, or ten thousand. This gives them a definite number to ponder and remember. It’s also important that it is almost going to double by January 1, due to escalating growth over the holidays, which we should act to avoid.
So we looked for an October surprise, which might appear by November 1 near Election Day. There isn’t a noticeable one in the IHME projections..
We give a table of the present deaths for the US and for the four highest population and leading states, followed by their Nov. 1, Dec. 1, and Jan. 1 IHME projections. This is the standard projection with US masking only at 45%.
| State | Present Deaths | Deaths on Nov. 1 | Deaths on Dec. 1 | Deaths on Jan. 1 |
| US | 200,763 | 229,587 | 279,424 | 378,321 |
| NY | 33,090 | 33,974 | 36,203 | 43,857 |
| CA | 15,183 | 19,478 | 27,257 | 43,856 |
| TX | 15,227 | 17,965 | 21,260 | 29,319 |
| FL | 13,416 | 18,417 | 23,926 | 26,472 |
For Californians, however, there will be almost triple the number of deaths by January 1.
For Texans, they will almost double their deaths by January 1.
We also see that Florida will almost double its deaths by January 1.
