IHME Projections for the US Extended to April 1 Show Double the Number of Covid-19 Deaths.
Update: December 7, Pearl Harbor Day: In Pearl Harbor, 2,403 Americans died. That was exceeded on December 1 to 4 of last week in Covid-19 deaths. In World War II, 400,000 Americans died. That will essentially be matched when the next Presidential Inauguration occurs on January 20, 2021. In one day, the US will have 15 million confirmed cases. We hope that Rudy Giuliani,, New York City’s Mayor during 911, recovers soon from his Covid-19 infection.
In a new month, the December 3 projections of the IHME U. Washington Model have been extended to April 1, showing an almost doubling of current deaths by then, to almost 540,000. By 95% (full) masking, this can be reduced by 66,000, or 25% of deaths to go until then. The rapid vaccine rollouts will reduce this by 11,000, so until we have greater vaccine coverage, masks are 6 times as effective in reducing deaths. Current masking is at 71%.
The center of the IHME projection to April 1 is 538,893 total Coronavirus deaths with the current scenario. With a rapid vaccine rollout, that can be reduced to 527,704, saving 11,189 lives. With 95% masking along, the April 2 current scenario can be reduced to 472,679, saving 66,214 lives.
The current deaths in IHME are 274,592, so there are 264,296 deaths to go to April 1, or 96% more, almost a doubling of present deaths. The ratio of the 66,214 lives savable by full masking is 25% of those deaths to go. The 11,189 savable by vaccine are 4.2% of those to go.
Daily deaths are projected to peak on January 12, at 2,970 per day, for both the current and vaccine projection. This can be reduced to 2,007 a day for full masking, or by 963 a day, a reduction of 32.4%, almost a third. The model has current daily deaths at 1,996, so the peak is a growth of 49%. The peak in deaths occurs about two weeks after New Year’s day, and three weeks after Christmas.
The estimated daily infections in the model are at a maximum on December 26, the day after Christmas. They are 525,786, which can be reduced to 353,119 a day with complete masking, saving 172,667 infections a day, or 33%, one third. Current confirmed daily infections are around 180,000, so the peak is 192% greater, or almost triple current confirmed infections.
On November 30, the model shows that 15% of the US is infected. This can be compared to the EU, where 10% are infected. From an IHME graph, only 25% of infections in the US are confirmed, giving a ratio of infected to confirmed of 4.0. For this year, Covid-19 has now become the leading cause of death, slightly passing ischemic heart disease.
Hospital beds used peak at 179,986 on January 7, two weeks after Christmas. Current hospitalizations have just passed 100,000, so this is 80% more.
We note the passing of Presidents by noting that on January 21, there are projected to be 407,174 Coronavirus deaths. That can be reduced to 383,447 with full masking, saving 23,727 lives. With current deaths at 274,592, there are 132,582 to go in this administration. That would be an increase of 48% or almost half. The savable lives with full masking are 18% of those lives to go. With the last projection two weeks ago, we noted that deaths on January 20th were expected to be 387,471. So that is now increased by about 20,000 deaths.
It’s disappointing that by April 1, the end of the first quarter of 2021, there are not that many saved by vaccination, especially compared to those savable by full masking. There will be a psychological effect of people relaxing restrictions in the belief that the vaccine will be immediately effective in protecting the vulnerable population, although we see in the estimates that that is not the case.
As of tonight there are 278,000 Coronavirus deaths, not too far from those used in the model calculations. There are 14.3 million confirmed cases in the US.
Today’s estimate is that Blacks are 1.4 times more likely to get the Coronavirus, and 2.8 times more likely to die from it.
The good news is that a new PEW poll shows that now 60% of the public will get the vaccine. The bad news is that only 60% will get the vaccine. Only 42% of blacks plan to get the vaccine.
