Georgia Covid-19 Deaths to Increase by 2/3 to April 1.
41% of those can be saved by full (95%) masking.
In the December 4 IHME model, the projection of Covid-19 deaths in Georgia by April 1 is 15,874, which can be reduced to 13,306 by full masking, saving 2,568 lives. With current Covid-19 deaths at 9,633, there will be 6,241 more to go. This is a 65% or 2/3 increase over present deaths. Current masking in Georgia is 59%, below the national average of 71%, and there is no state masking requirement, although there are 4 other mandates.
Daily Covid-19 deaths are about 33, and this will peak at 76.5 on February 4, which could be reduced back to 33 with full masking, saving 43 lives per day, or 56%.
In the IHME model, estimated infections per day will peak on January 18 at 16,437, which could be reduced to 7,128 per day with full masking, saving 9,309 a day from being infected, or 57%. Currently there are an estimated 8,833 infections per day, with about 3,500 a day being confirmed, for a ratio of 2.5, or only about 40% being confirmed with a test.
As of the November 16 summary, 19% of Georgians had been infected. In the summary, it is also stated that only 20% of cases had been confirmed, over all of the time of the Coronavirus. The Covid-19 is now the leading cause of death in the state.
Between December 13 to March 18, three months, needed ICU beds will exceed the excess ICU beds normally available. On February 5, the excess need will peak at 1,206 Covid-19 cases for only 506 excess ICU beds available.
By April 1, the rapid deployment of a vaccine will only save 327 lives, compared to the 2,568 savable by full masking. The increase of masking from 59% to 95% is 36% of Georgia’s population of 10.6 million, or 3.8 million Georgians. That is equivalent to the instantaneous vaccination of those Georgians, as opposed to the partial and slow rollout of vaccines in the first quarter of next year, much of it beyond the peak of the holiday infections.
Unfortunately, Trump just gave a rally in Georgia today trying to urge Republicans there to vote in the Senate runoffs, just after he said that the vote counting was a fraud, since he didn’t win there. The Covid-19 subliminal message was carried in the video, where nobody in the closely packed stand behind Trump was masked or socially distanced. This will be followed with many holiday parties in the White House and by Mike Pompeo in the State Department. Meanwhile, we are spending the day watching football where the stands are empty and the teams are masked on the sidelines.
The State Motto of Georgia is “Wisdom, Justice, Moderation”, and we have to trust in them.
