Florida is unique among the states in the IHME projections, in that it has imposed none of the six mandate categories for stopping the Coronavirus. The State of Florida or the Governor Ron De Santis has also prohibited cities and counties, like Miami-Dade, from adopting their own mandates. There have also been claims that the State was suppressing data, including on deaths.
The December 4 IHME projections now go through the first quarter of 2021, ending on April 1. For Florida, there is a projected increase in deaths to April 1 of 72% over the current number of Covid-19 deaths.
Current Florida deaths are 19,361 in the IHME model. The April 1 projection is 33,232 deaths, which can be reduced to 29,339 with 95% (full) masking, saving 3,893 or almost 4,000 lives. There are still 13,871 lives projected to be lost by April 1, which is 72% greater than those lives already lost, and of which 28% can be saved by full masking.
The rapid deployment of vaccines is projected to reduce deaths by April 1 to a total of 32,374, saving 858 lives. This is only 22% of the 3,893 which can be saved by full masking.
Floridians are doing 68% masking, but going to 95% masking will protect the remaining 27% of the 21.5 million, or is equivalent to vaccinating 5.8 million immediately. We still do not know if vaccinating people protects them from generating droplets which can infect others, so all are still recommended to wear masks.
Daily deaths are currently at 98 per day in the model. This will peak around January 12, two to three weeks after Christmas and New Year’s Day, at 164 per day, which can be reduced to 103 per day with full masking, saving 61 lives per day or 37%. The 164 per day peak is an increase of 2/3 above the present rate.
Estimated daily infections in the model currently are 19,223, while current confirmed infections by testing are about 8,000 per day, so the ratio is 2.4. On a graph, the IHME show that 35% of cases are detected, giving a ratio of 3.
Estimated daily infections are projected to peak around Christmas, December 26, at 22,799 per day. The peak is only an increase of 19% over the current estimated rate. This can be reduced to 14,274 a day with full masking, saving 8,525 infections a day, or 37%.
Projected Covid-19 beds needed peak on January 14 at 8,055, which is far under the number of normally excess available beds at 20,184. Covid-19 needed ICU beds peak on the same day at 1,977, which is 281 over the excess available beds at 1,696.
From the IHME writeup and graphs for Florida, 20-25% of Floridians are expected to have been infected by April 1.
By the end of this year, Covid-19 deaths are projected to have only been half of those for the year from ischemic heart disease.
In Florida, 75-79% of adults are open to be vaccinated.
