December 10 IHME Covid-19 Projections for California, Texas, Florida and New York to April 1
We make simplified write-ups directly from the IHME state perspectives for the four largest states, which together account for a third of the US population. The IHME data comes from December 7.
California
Daily deaths in California averaged 110 a day, and new cases were 14,000 a day. 10% of Californians had been infected by December 7. Californians masked at 82%. 84% of Californians would get the vaccine.
By April 1, the projections are that 12.3 million would be infected, which is 31%. Currently, only 30% of infections are being detected by tests.
Deaths by April 1 would be 54,000, which is 34,000 more than at December 7, and about 60% greater. Going to full masking at 95% would save 8,000 of those lives. Both of those are about the same projections as last week. 1,800 of those lives will be saved by vaccine distribution.
Texas
Daily deaths averaged 130, and daily cases 10,300 on December 7. In the IHME model, only 22% of infections are being detected by testing. 70% of Texans are masking. 70-74% would get the vaccine. 19% of Texans had been infected on December 7 in the IHME model. 8.5 million Texans or 29% will be vaccinated by April 1.
By April 1, there would be 35,000 deaths, which is 13,000 more than on December 7, or about 60% greater. 4,000 of those would be saved by 95% masking. 1,600 of the total will be saved by the vaccine.
Florida
On December 7, daily deaths averaged 80, and new cases were 7,600 a day. 13% of Texans had been infected within the model. Only 26% of infections have been detected by testing, in the model. The state has 66% masking.
75-79% would get vaccinated, and 6.5 million or 30% will be vaccinated by April 1. An estimated 20-25% would be infected by April 1.
By April 1, there would be 31,000 deaths, which is 12,000 more than on December 7, or about 63% greater. 4,000 lives could be saved by going to 95% masking. 1,500 of the total will be saved by the vaccines.
New York
On December 7, daily deaths averaged 50 per day, and new cases 6,200 per day. Only 13% of cases are being confirmed by testing in the model. 24% of New Yorkers were infected by December 7 in the model. By April 1, 30-35% would have been infected. New York has 81% masking.
70-74% of New Yorkers would get vaccinated. By April 1, 6.0 million or 31% would be vaccinated.
By April 1, total deaths from Covid-19 would be 48,000, which would add 13,000 deaths from December 7, or about 37% more. There would be 1,000 fewer deaths with 95% masking. Vaccines will save 1,700 from the total.
