IHME Projected US Deaths for April 1 Increases by 60,000 from Last Week
Current projections now include vaccines rolled out with a 90 day scale up. Rapid rollout is a hypothetical roll out of twice as many vaccinations by scaling them up over 45 days.
The present record increases in Covid-19 infections has shown up in increasing current projected US deaths in the IHME by April 1 from 502,000 to 562,000. This is 262,000 or 87% more than those on December 14 of 300,000. The rapid rollout of the vaccines will reduce new deaths by 34,500, or 13%. However, going to full masking right away at 95% instead of the present 74% would reduce deaths by 55,000 or 21%. Full masking also includes the rollout of the vaccines over 90 days.
As of December 14, 17% or 1/6 of Americans are infected in the model, which is 55 million. Only 16.7 million or 30% of those have been confirmed by testing. By April 1, 100 million will be vaccinated. Only 50% or 165 million will still be susceptible by April 1. That includes the infected with the vaccinated. We do not yet know how long the immunity from the infections or vaccines last.
Deaths per day are projected to peak at 3,780 on January 6, two weeks after Christmas.
From a graph, only 27% of daily infections are being confirmed. They are peaking now at 66,000 per day.
For the full year of 2020, Covid-19 deaths are second only to ischemic heart disease.
While the IHME model has always shown a January peak, others had not. Today however, some of the other models now have peaks which exceed the IHME model. Spare ICU beds in Southern California for Covid-19 have already disappeared, and some of other medical operations have been put off.
We now look at the IHME projections for January 20, since in the future comparisons may be between administrations, and January 20 is closer to a full year of Covid-19 involvement. Projected deaths then are 420,660. Compared to 312,845 this afternoon, December 18, it is an increase of 107,815, or 34%. With vaccines, the January 20 result is only reduced by 32, showing their short term lack of effect in small amounts and before second doses. It is still 33 days or about 5 weeks to go. However, conversion to 95% masking can save 9,001 lives by then.
US deaths per day are projected to peak on January 6 at 3,778, with or without vaccinations. But 95% masking can reduce this by 233 per day or 6.2%. The current December 18 daily deaths in the model are 2,616, so the January 6 result is 44% higher.
Daily infections are modeled for December 18 at 666,729, but the 7 day confirmed ones are currently 218,481, giving a ratio of 3.05.
Current masking is at 73%, but with 25% saying they will stop masking after vaccination, that will decrease to 67% by April 1.
The need for Covid-19 beds will peak nationwide on January 12, a week before inauguration, at 181,289. This is 60% greater than current Covid-19 hospitalization at 114,237. ICU beds will peak on January 13 at 44,756, or 25% of Covid-19 hospitalizations. Ventilators will also peak on January 13 at 21,920, or 50% of ICU beds, and 12% of hospitalizations.
