California’s IHME Covid-19 Projections Now Extended to May 1, and Peak Around the Start of February
The peak is about two weeks away, and will then fortunately decline to May. California and especially Los Angeles has suffered by great expansions of infections with the winter, and yet we have hardly noticed that it was winter. Hospitals have filled up all over the state, and lockdowns have been instituted. Those infected and deaths are heavily inequitable to the Latino population.
The IHME missed two weekly projections due to the holidays and interruptions of data flow. The January 15 IHME projection is based on data through January 11.
Cases per day were 41,600 last week. Deaths were 420 per day average, and 18% in California have been infected. Current masking in California is high, at 80%.
The projection has 14 million vaccinated by May 1, although with some not taking double doses, the effective amount is 11 million, out of the state population of 40 million. Counting infections, 36% or 14.4 million will still be susceptible on May 1.
56% of Californians are accepting of the vaccines, with 21% unsure, which is considered as 77% vaccine capable, and 23% rejecting them. Unfortunately, vaccines have been given to only 5% of nursing homes, where they are needed most.
Deaths to May 1 are projected at 71,000, compared to January 11 at 30,000, or today at 32,000. With 39,000 more deaths to come after today, that is a 122% increase over today. Their projections include 9,600 lives saved by the current vaccination projections. Universal masking starting now at 95% would save 7,000 lives by May 1.
The projection of December 23 for April 1 was 71,000 deaths. The new projection for April 1 is 67,800, a reduction of 3,200 or 4.5%.
Currently, deaths per day in California average about 500, and are expected to peak at 641 per day on February 3. With 95% masking, that would be reduced to a peak at 612 a day on January 31.
Weekly deaths in California by Covid-19 now equal the sum of the next nine most common causes of deaths.
While there are around 41,000 confirmed cases a day, the daily infections in the IHME model are 124,000. That gives a ratio of 3.0, or a reciprocal of 33% or a third confirmed by testing. This is close to the claimed ratio of 38% of cases detected.
Excess beds available in California were 26,654 and have been exceeded by the need for Covid-19 beds from January 12 to March 7, or two months. The needed Covid-19 beds will peak on February 5 at 37,838.
ICU excess beds available for Covid-19 over previous average ICU usage is at 2,000. This has been exceeded from November 29 to April 11, or over four months. The peak is projected at 9,276 Covid-19 needed beds on February 3rd.
Patients suffering on ventilators are currently 3,960, and will peak on February 2nd at 5,056. By May 1, this will be reduced to 447.
