IHME Projections for the US Covid-19 Infections Lose the Plateau for a Smooth Drop
A few weeks ago there was a predicted Easter bump in Covid-19 cases. Last week it was only an March plateau. This week, February 25, it is a steep drop. This saves 15,000 lives by June 1, over last week’s projection. Yet TV doctors are still talking about a bump or a plateau. Time will tell.
IHME now assumes that past infections protect against new variants.
Cases average 65,200 a day, which is a 70% drop in the last 5 weeks.
Daily deaths are now down to 2,000 a day, which is a 35% drop in the last two weeks.
In the model, on February 22, 19% of Americans were infected. That’s about 63 million. 28.5 million cases have been confirmed, or about 45% of those in the model. Currently, only 50% of new cases are being detected in the model. There are now 510,000 US deaths.
Currently 74% of American adults would welcome or be open to vaccination. 170,000 Americans are predicted to be vaccinated by June 1. The Johnson and Johnson vaccine was just given emergency approval by the FDA, and should be approved by the CDC tomorrow.
US deaths by June 1 are projected at 574,000, which is 64,000 more than the 510,000 today. It is 15,000 less than last week’s projection. By June 1, 88,600 lives would be saved by vaccination, and is taken into account in the projection.
Current US masking is at 74%. If we started 95% masking, there would be 10,000 fewer deaths by June 1, or 16% of those projected until June 1.
Covid-19 death rate is still the highest source, and equal to those from heart disease plus lung cancer.
This is the IHME graph of Estimated Infections per day, where the Worst Case on top is in red, the Current projection is in purple, and the 95% Masking projection in green at the bottom.
The Worst Case in red assumes that people will stop masking a month after getting vaccinated. However, many states are lowering restraints now, so it only hints at a plateau and another possible peak to come.
