US IHME Covid-19 Projections Show Plateaus and Peaks if Masking is Ending

We present a summary of the March 6 IHME projections for the US and the four most populous states. If masking is dropped by people a month after their vaccinations, another peak will occur in a few months. In actuality, mask mandates are being dropped in a lot of Republican states, and we will have to wait for a future projection for that to be incorporated. Being March, the IHME projections have now been extended to July 1, four months in the future. This is also the data Biden projects all 209 million adult Americans could be vaccinated.

Right now 20% of American infections are from the UK B.1.1.7 variant. Our vaccines give less immunity for this. Also, two other variants might take the lead in four months, B.1.351, from South Africa, and P1 from Brazil, keeping daily deaths from Covid-19 at about 1,000 a day.

Right now, projected cases run 60,100 a day, of which only 50% are being detected. In the model, it is estimated that 19% in the US have been infected. US masking is at 77%.

The model uses projections that 192 million will be vaccinated by July 1. Those who do not want a vaccination are about 20%, which would be 40 million adults. That is, unless they are required to take it for jobs. The 40 million would give only 170 million adults as perhaps willing to be vaccinated. That would leave 20 million vaccinations for grade school students.

US Covid-19 deaths in the Current projection will reach about 576,000 by July 1.That also accounts for the 99,300 lives that were saved by new vaccinations. 65,000 lives will be lost since March 1. If masking went up from the present 77% to 95%, there would be 8,900 fewer deaths by July 1. On the other hand, the Worst case projection reaches 641,000 deaths by July, another 65,000 more than the Current projection from March 1 to July 1.

The CDC has said that very small groups of completely vaccinated can congregate. Masks and social distancing are still recommended for vaccinated people among others.

The Pfizer vaccine may be 90% effective 3 weeks after one dose is given.

Below is an IHME plot of estimated daily infections, where the Worst case is in red, the Current projection is in purple, and the 95% Masking projection is in green.

In the Worst case, daily infections plateau at about 140,000 a day until June.

Daily Covid-19 deaths are still number one cause of death, but now above heart disease deaths. In the Worst case, they plateau at over 1,100 a day, until June.