IHME Projections for US Covid-19 Infections Including State Relaxations, Vaccine Cooperation, and Variants by State
The March 25 IHME projections have come out, and we summarize the above topics.
Mask use in the US is currently still good at 75%. Vaccines have been taken, are sought or possibly okay with 72% of the population. That is still short of the 70-85% considered necessary for herd immunity, especially with more infectious variants.
In the four largest states, California is 81% masking, Texas is 75%, Florida is 71%, and New York is 83%.
Below is a map of US showing what percentage of the state’s adults are accepting or possibly accepting of vaccination. Roughly, it is more Biden states which are more accepting. In the four largest states: California is actually 81% accepting or possible accepting, Texas is 73%, Florida is 73%, and New York is 78%.
Peak vaccinations are projected to level off at 189 million. At least one shot will be by the third week in May, so complete vaccinations will be by the third week in April. It is projected that 65,200 lives will be saved between now and July 1 by vaccinations, which is folded into the projections.
The Current projection of IHME is for 600,000 deaths total by July 1. Today, there are 547,000 Covid-19 deaths in the US, so this is an increase of 53,000, or another 10%. However, the Worse case of relaxation of masking and constraints is projected to have 57,000 more deaths by July 1 than the Current projection, and that is is almost another 10% more. If instead we went to 95% masking, it would save 10,000 lives off the Current projection by July 1.
In the IHME model, 21% of the US is infected as of March 22. Current infections are still only being detected by testing 50% of the time. In the four largest states: California is 19% infected, Texas is 27% infected, Florida is 19% infected, and New York is 32% infected.
Daily deaths from Covid-19 have dropped to 1,000 a day, and are now the second leading cause of deaths, behind heart disease. Thirteen states still have hospitalizations on the rise. Under the Current projection, they will drop to 143 a day by July 1. With 95% masking they will drop further to 66 a day. However, in the Worse case, they will rise to a peak at 1,500 a day around May 23, and then have a slow drop through April, ending about where they are now by July 1.
Daily infections are now at 106,000 a day. The Current projection is for them to drop down to less than a tenth of the present rate by July 1, or 9,500 a day. 95% Masking would drop down to almost a third of that at 3,500 a day. However, the Worse case would rise from now to peak at 165,000 ad day, or 60% larger, around April 26. By July 1, it would only drop to around the present rate, or 95,000 a day.
President Biden reached the goal of 100 million vaccination shots in 58 days, not 100. His new goal is for 200 million shots by 100 days, which will occur on April 30 (or May 1). He is putting $10 billion to reach that goal. 40 states plan to start giving vaccinations to all adults by May 1.
Biden also plans to have grades K-8 open by May 1. So far, 100 million have received their Rescue payments of $1,400. Some schools have been pool testing kids once a week, and testing teachers twice a week.
Below is a map of the percentage of each state infected by the B.1.1.7 or UK variant, Figure 7, which are led by California and Michigan at 90% or above. Below that is a map of the states infected by the B.1.351 or South African variant, with S. Carolina 25%-49%, and N. Carolina and Maryland at 10%-24%. The states in black are 1-9%.
However, these maps completely ignore the California Variant which dominates in Southern California, according to local assays. It is considered to be 20% more infective than the traditional variants.
In an IHME table of 25 possible virus containment mandates, four states have no mandates: Texas, Florida, S. Dakota, and S. Carolina.
Ten states have only one mandate, which is a masking mandate in only Utah, Alabama, and Arkansas. The other seven states have only High School closure (HS): Tennessee, Oklahoma, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Iowa, and Idaho.
Five states have only two mandates: Wisconsin (masking and HS), Wyoming (border closures except for residents), Nevada (masking and HS), Alaska (border and HS).
Yes, I know, almost all of the above are Republican states.
