The great pandemic tragedy in India is clearly underestimated by the tested infections and death toll. We turn to the IHME model and projections to try to get good estimates. In the end of their writeup on India, they show that their model is way more positive than two other models. The IHME shows peaks that rapidly decline, but they do not explain why, other than that they have optimistic vaccination projections.
Daily deaths were 4,800 per day last week.
As of April 26, the IHME estimates that 40% have been infected. The number of tested infections per day was only 4% of the estimated number of infections per day. The purple curve is the Current projection. The green curve is the 95% Masking projection. The red curve is the Worse projection.
Comparing numbers, 40% infected of India’s 1.4 billion population gives 560 million infected. The Johns Hopkins site on May 4 gives 20.3 million cases, which is only 3.6% of the 560 million estimated in the IHME model.
The Johns Hopkins graph shows a very recent peak at 400,000 cases per day. The IHME graph below shows the peak at an estimated 12.5 million cases per day. This gives only 3.2% of daily cases are being detected.
72% wear masks, and mobility was reduced 40% below normal.
For vaccinations, 79% would accept or probably accept a vaccine. IHME estimates that 674 million would be vaccinated by August 1. That is about 50% of the 1,366 million population. By August 1, from a graph, 660 million will have at least one dose, and 450 million will be effectively vaccinated.
The IHME (U. Of Washington) model projection is from May 1. The leading cause of death in India is now Covid-19. The IHME predicts a million deaths by August 1. That is 630,000 more than those which have occurred by April 26.
With 95% masking, 73,000 of those lives could be saved. If the country fell for the worse scenario, there would be an additional 103,000 deaths by August 1 over the projected million deaths. By August 1, 91,100 lives will have been saved by the vaccine rollout.
The Johns Hopkins Covid-19 site gives India 222,000 cumulative deaths. In the graph below, deaths are just crossing 400,000, so only roughly 56% of deaths by Covid-19 are being reported.
The model has daily deaths peaking at 12,200 per day on May 20. There is a steep falloff in the IHME model after that.
The Johns Hopkins graph of deaths per day peaked at 3,700 per day. The IHME graph peaked at about 12,200 a day. The ratio is only about 30% of daily deaths from Covid-19 being detected.
The infection fatality ratio in the model is 0.4% to 0.6%.
In the Northern part of India, 50-74% of infections are the B.1.351 variant. In the South and East of India, 25-49% are the B.1.1.7 variant. In the beach vacation paradise of the state of Goa, greater than 95% have been infected.
Peak daily deaths at 12,000 a day in mid-May in the IHME model are fivefold increased to 60,000 a day in mid June in the Imperial model. The SIKJalpha model grows linearly to 20,000 deaths a day in August. The LANL and Delphi models are much lower than the IHME model.
