Summary of IHME Modeling for the US and California, Texas, Florida, and New York

Summary of IHME Modeling for the US and California, Texas, Florida, and New York

First of all, today was the day that the FDA gave full approval to the Pfizer vaccine for those 12 and over.  Headlines are that the stock market went up today because of this, and that businesses and institutions can now establish vaccination requirements.  30% of the unvaccinated said that they were waiting for such approval.  There are 88 million unvaccinated Americans who could get vaccinated.  However, for Pfizer, it takes six weeks to become full immune.  Yet, like masked gunfighters in Westerners, it only takes a few seconds to put on a mask, and move to social distancing.  Those who say that vaccinations are the only answer are not looking at the short term.

The surprising thing about the IHME projections is that we are supposedly near or even past the peak of the effects of the Delta Variant.  

The IHME modeling gives Excess deaths from Covid as well as Recorded deaths.  Globally, there are about 4.5 million recorded deaths, but an estimated 9.7 million excess Covid deaths, or over double.

For the United States, while there are about 620,000 recorded deaths, there are an estimated 970,000 total Covid excess deaths, or about 56% more.  Daily recorded deaths are over one thousand a day, but excess Covid deaths are about 1,800 a day.  Both will increase about a third of the way through September, with recorded deaths rising to about 1,400 a day, and excess deaths rising to 2,200 a day.  The Worse case projection is if those who are vaccinated stop masking.  That won’t peak until mid October where recorded deaths will reach 2,200 a day, and excess Covid deaths will reach 3,600 a day, emphasizing the importance of staying masked.  Hospital bed use is expected to peak about Sept. 1 at about 120 thousand, and ICU use at about 30 thousand of those.  Estimated infections are supposed to have already peaked at about 600,000 a day, except in the Worse case where they don’t peak until mid-September at about 750,000 a day.

For California, the largest state with 40 million population, there are 65,067 projected reported cases today, but 120,601 projected excess Covid deaths, for a ratio of only 54% being reported.  Daily deaths don’t peak until the end of September, where reported ones exceed 100 a day, while excess Covid deaths will peak at 200 a day.  In the Worse case, the peak does not occur until later in October, and reaches 300 recorded cases a day, and 600 a day for the excess deaths.  Hospital resource use will peak shorty on September 1, at about 10,400 beds, including about 2,200 ICUs.

For Texas, the second largest state with 30 million population, the reported deaths are projected at 55,225 today, but topped by excess Covid deaths at 91,190, so only 61% are being recorded.  The ratio of Texas excess deaths to population is the same as in California.  Daily deaths will peak in the first week of September, at over 150 a day for recorded, and at about 260 a day for excess Covid deaths.  Current daily recorded deaths are projected at 140 a day today, and daily excess Covid deaths at 231 a day.  Hospital bed use for Covid has almost peaked at about 16,700, and ICUs at about 4,500.

In the IHME models, Florida with 21.6 million population has almost reached its peaks in reported deaths at 231 per day, and in excess Covid deaths at 323 per day, which is 40% greater than the reported rate.  Hospitalizations have passed their peak at 18,000, including 4,000 ICU beds.  Daily estimated infections passed their peak at the start of August, at 100,000 a day, and have dropped quickly to only 36,000 a day.  Considering the attention directed at the state, this is remarkable.  Total reported deaths are about 43,000, whereas excess Covid deaths are at 60,000.  72% of Covid deaths are recorded as such.  Florida has only half of the population of California, and its excess deaths are in proportion to California’s ratio to its population.

The projections for New York, at 19.5 million population, from IHME are entered on August 24.  Excess deaths are 65,401, while reported are 54,110, giving 83% reported.  Daily excess Covid deaths are 44 a day, and reported are 37 a day.  Daily deaths will rise and be flat from mid September to November 1, with excess deaths at about 70 a day, and reported at 60 a day.  Current hospital beds in use for Covid are 3,640, with 635 being in ICUs.  These will almost double and peak around October 16 at 6,859 beds with 1,236 being in ICUs.  Daily estimated infections are 21,862 a day, which will peak around October 1 at 26,784 a day.  New York excess deaths are comparable to Florida at nearly the same populations.

The vaccination rates in the US for 18+ and for the four largest states are given in the table below, with data from the New York Times.

There are 73 million minors in the US, that is, those under the age of 18.  There are 48 million children under the age of 12, who are not yet qualified for the vaccines.  That leaves 25 million minors who are qualified for the vaccines.